== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank Sells USD/JPY From 97.90; Stands Flat On EUR/USD

Commerzbank entered into a technical tactical short USD/JPY from 97.90, with a stop at 98.90, and a target at 94.80.

"USD/JPY shot up to 98.66 before slipping again. A continued slide should be seen in the days to come while this high caps. As long as it does, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June-to-July rise at 95.42 will remain in focus. Below it lies the five month support line at 94.82. Over the coming weeks we allow for losses back to the 93.95/75 support area. This is where the June low and the 200 day moving average are," CB says as a rationale behind this call.

Meanwhile, CB stands flat on EUR/USD after stopping out of its last short position last week on a tiny loss.

"Last week EUR/USD reached the 1.3208/1.3188 support zone (July 11 high and the current August low) from where it accelerated higher. The August high at 1.3401 is thus back into the picture. A rise above the 1.3419 June peak would suggest ongoing strength to 1.3500/20, the minor psychological level and 13th February high. This is regarded as the last defence for the 1.3711 February high. We do not favour such a strong rise, though, and believe that the currency pair will falter around the 1.3500 mark," CB outlines its current technical bias on the pair.

"Only a drop through the 1.3208/1.3188 support area will alleviate upside pressure. Failure here will target the 1.3000 region. Loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 July and April lows," CB adds.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

What Deutsche Bank FX Regime Machine Tells US About Mkt's Current Drivers & Dynamics?

Inflation continues to be the most important driver for G10 FX, with those currencies displaying a positive inflation impulse doing the best (JPY, CHF) and those with a negative one the worst (AUD, NZD, SEK), data from Deutsche Bank G10 Regime Machine showed on Tuesday.

Moreover, the latest outputs from DB Regime Machine indicated that:

- Currencies continue to be very negatively correlated to carry, but very positively correlated with CDS spreads.

- Trendiness has completely collapsed in G10 markets and is near to its 0 percentile.

- Realized vol remains relatively high, as does cross currency correlation.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP/JPY higher for the sixth consecutive day

This pair has had a nice run since the start of last week, climbing to 152.80 from 149.00. After hitting 153.58 today, the pair as reversed and fallen more than 80 pips.
More weakness could be in store as the pair consolidates and risk trades continue to lose momentum. Resistance around 154.00 should continue to cap the pair in the near term.

[Abo Abdullah]

Erste Group -Trends & Levels For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, & EUR/CHF

[Abo Abdullah]

U.S. stocks mostly lower; yields hit 2-year highs
Dow, S&P 500 drop for 4th consecutive trading day
Oil ends rally at 6 sessions, but holds above $106.50
Egypt remains in focus; natural gas rallies on demand prospects

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR Briefing - New York

[New York, Aug 19 19:44 GMT] The euro moved higher in early European trading, giving back most of the dollar gains put in on Friday. The euro retraced back to Friday’s highs, at 1.3375, on an unexpected BUBA announcement that the ECB's low rate guidance is not an "unconditional commitment" to lower rates & rates would be expected to go higher if inflation picks up. While reasonable assertions, the Bundesbank itself forecast low inflation in its monthly report [ID:nF9E8M701K]. The market steadily sold off to lows near 1.3340 and traded 1.3335/45 for the balance of the NY session. Though the euro has traded through the 10-DMA, now at 1.3320, the euro refuses to move to far afield of this support. A break of the 10-DMA exposes 1.3262 the 76.4% Fib of 1.3418/1.2755 range. Wednesday FOMC minutes & Thursday’s EZ flash PMI's are significant data events this week. EZ mfg PMI's near 50, a reading below 50 could put recent supports to the test, Though RSI & Stoch's indicates scope for a move higher. Paul.Spirgel at ThomsonReuters com Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

[Abo Abdullah]

JPM - Buy AUD/USD on dips, look to fade upside through 0.93

Barcelona - The vigorous bounce in the AUD/USD off trend lows has raised the risk that further retracement can develop, notes Niall O'Connor, Currency Strategist at JP Morgan Securities.
Key Quotes
"For AUD/USD, the reversal from the .8855/.8770 support zone is important as it represents the key channel support from the 2011 cycle peak, the 76.4% retracement of the rally from the 2010 low, as well as the August ’10 reaction low. Moreover, last week’s bullish reversal pattern from this support zone can allow for additional upside follow through."
"Still, we sense the next line of key resistance levels will be a more difficult hurdle to break. The .9300/.9345 resistance area is the important test as it represents the late-June/July range highs and an ideal area for a reversal particularly given the impulsive reversal from last month. In turn, we will look to fade any additional upside retracement into this key resistance zone."

[Abo Abdullah]

Westpac - NZD/USD could make a run up to 0.8200

Global FX Strategist Sean Callow at Westpac outlines the short-term outlook of the NZD/USD.

Key quotes
“
The NZD/USD continues to consolidate its large decline in May/June, stuck inside a 0.7685-0.8135 range.”
“Near-term, the bounce since 5 Aug has energy and could run to 0.8200 during the week ahead. NZ data remains supportive so that any surprises to our view are likely to be US dollar-related.”

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - USD/JPY favored by unlikely source

US 10y Treasury yields have risen 9.5bp since Friday's open, setting a new two year high as the countdown to the September FOMC meeting continues, notes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS.

Key quotes

“A sell-off in the US Treasury market usually affects core bond markets elsewhere, but JGBs seem to have forgotten this tradition. For example, the 10y JGB yield has only climbed 1.5 bp since Friday's open, and so the US-Japan bond spread continues to widen in favor of USD/JPY upside.”

“We look for more spread widening over the months ahead, as the Fed begins the process of QE3 tapering while the Bank of Japan continues to lean heavily on the JGB curve.”

[Abo Abdullah]

Brazil gov't working to reduce volatility in forex market-source

Aug 19 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank and Treasury are working together to reduce volatility in the foreign exchange and interest rate futures markets, a Treasury official, who asked not to be named, said on Monday.

[Abo Abdullah]

Simplified Supply Demand Table

The table below includes updated supply/demand levels on the major currency pairs. The table is updated on a daily basis after the NY close. The levels will help trading decisions for intraday, swing and positions traders.

**RBR = Rally-base-rally

**RBD = Rally-base-drop

**DBD= Drop-base-drop

**DBR= Drop-base-rally

** Refer to footnote for further information on supply/demand analysis

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

FX Technicals

EUR/USD: (Bullish) With bullish conditions in place, the first resistance focus is at 1.3417, a break above which would open 1.3520. Support is at 1.3206 ahead of 1.3154.

USD/JPY: (Neutral) Resistance is at 98.67, a close above this would be positive, extending the strength to 99.95 and then 101.53. Support is at 97.05 ahead of 95.81.

GBP/USD: (Bullish) The recent strength suggests there is scope for a test of important resistance at 1.5752 ahead of 1.5879. Support is at 1.5608 ahead of 1.5496.

AUD/USD: (Bearish) Only a closing break above resistance at 0.9209 would suggest a move to 0.9320 and then 0.9431. Support is at 0.8995 ahead of 0.8848.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD