== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

BMO - USD/CAD, long for 1.0650 target at 1.05/1.0450 pullback

According to Matt Perrier, FX Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, "There has been a noticeable lack of a pullback in USD/CAD in the 3 day run up from 1.0337 which leaves very short term momentum indicators deep in overbought territory so the anticipated move to 1.0650 may be subject to some headwinds in the absence of a near term pullback."

Perrier adds: "1.0490/1.0505 acts as immediate support into Friday while the 1.0445 breakout point and 1.0383/1.0438 fib support zone of the current 1.0276/1.0525 rally acts as primary support on any broader pullbacks. Bias is to the long side for a test of 1.0650. If not already so positioned, look to use any pullback to 1.0500/1.0450 as an entry zone. Suggested range next week 1.0450/1.0650."

[Abo Abdullah]

New Zealand trade deficit $774 million vs $16 million deficit expected

[Abo Abdullah]

EU slow start little in weekend press

Little to impact in weekend press - 10pt range early
Opens +0.2% after soft U.S. housing data Friday
Momentum studies conflict - ma's & Bolli's edge higher
Tight consolidation likely in Asia unless there is news
NY1.3333/1.3410 range inirtial support/resistance

[Abo Abdullah]

EURUSD - Weekly Forecast 26-30 Aug 2013

The EURUSD maintained a bullish momentum last week after topping at the 1.3451 levels, according to the daily chart, the pair loses some of its upside momentum , support comes at the 1.3334 ahead of the 1.3323 levels, losing both levels on a daily closing basis will confirm short term topping at the 1.3451 levels, If seen , next support is at 1.3265 levels ahead of 1.3205/1.3187 levels, below 1.3205/187 will open 1.3066/1.3050 levels.

On the upside , a failure to hold below the 1.3323/13334 levels could mean a return to the 1.3451 levels, however, to resume its upside offensive, the pair will have to hold above the 1.3451 levels on a daily closing basis, If seen , It will target the 1.3600 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.3700 levels.

In all , a consolidation below the 1.3451 levels is likely to bring a sudden fall towards the 1.3205 and possible lower , while a consolidation above the 1.3451 levels will bring a sudden rise towards the 1.3600/700 levels.

On the weekly chart , as long as 1.3230 holds on a weekly closing basis, sudden rise towards the 1.3700 levels couldn't be ruled out , losing 1.3230 on a weekly closing basis, will confirm short term topping and flip bias back to the downside towards the 1.3000/1.2800 levels.

Trend Strength (daily chart):

Bullish : above 1.3451

Neutral : below 1.3451

Bearish : below 1.3187

[Abo Abdullah]

GBPUSD – Weekly Forecast 26-30 Aug 2013

The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum last week, topped at the 1.5716 levels, but the pair loses some of its upside momentum , support is at the 1.5546 levels, a halt is suggested, but losing this level will open the way towards the main support 1.5422 levels, below this level will flip bias back to the downside towards the 1.5204 levels.

On the upside, stability above the 1.5422/546 levels could mean a return to the 1.5716 levels, above 1.5716 will have large bullish implication towards the 1.5800/50 ahead 1.5900 levels.note that on the 4 hour hour chart, the pair loses some of it downside momentum, resistance is at 1.5661, sustained break above this level will open 1.5800/900 levels.

On the weekly chart, as long as 1.5422 holds on a weekly closing basis, a sudden rise towards the 1.6000 levels couldn't be ruled out , losing the 1.5422 level will confirm short term topping and flip bias back to the downside towards the 1.5200/100 levels.

Trend Strength (daily chart):

Bullish : above 1.5422

Neutral : below 1.5422

Bearish : below 1.5078

[Abo Abdullah]

Westpac - NZD/USD to test bottom of a 2-month range

After being the worst performing G10 currency last week, the Kiwi is expected to test the bottom of a two-month range this week, according to Imre Speizer, FX Strategist at Westpac.

"The NZD continues to consolidate its large May/June decline, stuck inside a 0.7685-0.8135 range. Near term, however, the currency looks weak and should test the bottom of this range during the week ahead. The main reason for this is likely to be continuing market expectations the Fed will start tapering QE in September."

"There’s also the RBNZ’s newly announced macro-prudential restrictions which could temporarily curb the housing market and credit growth during the next few months."

"If tapering is announced in September and is significant in magnitude, NZD/USD will probably break below 0.7685 towards the low 0.70’s. Alternatively, if the Fed disappoints the taperists, then the NZD/USD will rebound to the 0.8400-0.8500 area."

[Abo Abdullah]

Gold jumps to 10-week high as Asian buyers bite on war worries

Gold momentarily broke $1400 late on Friday after a big jump after the weak US new home sales earlier in the day but it has firmly cracked the big figure now. Asian traders didn’t have a chance to jump on the rally on Friday and the drama in Syria is re-igniting war fears.

On Sunday, Syria agreed Sunday to a UN investigation into last week’s alleged chemical weapons attack but a deal a senior White House official dismissed as “too late to be credible,” saying the United States has “very little doubt” President Bashar Assad’s forces used such weapons. The rhetoric from the US and rumors that the US and UK have agreed to action are underpinning rallies in gold and oil.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Reuters reports that the Nikkei 225 would likely trade higher or narrowly lower after a big jump on Friday.

Market players said the Nikkei was likely to trade between 13,550 and 13,850 on Monday after rising 2.2 percent to 13,660.55 on Friday.

With little on the calendar, they say the market will be watching USD/JPY for clues. At the moment, all the majors are within 10 pips of opening levels.

[Abo Abdullah]

Repetition

Gold jumps to 10-week high as Asian buyers bite on war worries

Gold momentarily broke $1400 late on Friday after a big jump after the weak US new home sales earlier in the day but it has firmly cracked the big figure now. Asian traders didn’t have a chance to jump on the rally on Friday and the drama in Syria is re-igniting war fears.

On Sunday, Syria agreed Sunday to a UN investigation into last week’s alleged chemical weapons attack but a deal a senior White House official dismissed as “too late to be credible,” saying the United States has “very little doubt” President Bashar Assad’s forces used such weapons. The rhetoric from the US and rumors that the US and UK have agreed to action are underpinning rallies in gold and oil

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank and UBS - What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today

The single currency is trading on a softer tone against the greenback at the beginning of the week, testing lows in the area of 1.3375/70 ahead of the US calendar due later. The absence of events/results in the 17-nation bloc would leave the EUR/USD to the mercy of the risk trends, in a context dominated by the investors’ preference for safer assets so far.

In the opinion of Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, “The negative divergence seen between the daily RSI and the EUR/USD current August high at 1.3453 points to a top being formed. Confirmation of this would be a drop through the steep two month support line at 1.3324 and a fall through last week’s 1.3298 low”.

Strategists Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu at UBS remain bullish on the pair, arguing, “The pair is under correction having tested the important resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3298 ahead of 1.3206. Resistance is at 1.3452 ahead of 1.3520”.

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - USD/JPY nears the resistance line at 99.55 which should cap

Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank notes that USD/JPY has risen above the 98.66 mid-August high and thus has the four month resistance line at 99.55 in its sights.

While the current August high at 99.95 caps on a daily New York closing basis, we will maintain our medium term bearish forecast.”

“Failure at last week’s 96.91 low will push the three month support line at 96.43 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June-to-July rise at 95.42 to the fore.Below these lies the five month support line at 94.93.”

“Over the coming weeks we allow for losses back to the 94.39/93.75 support area. This is where the 200 day moving average and the June low are to be found.”

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - AUD/USD remains sidelined around the 0.9000 mark

Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank notes that AUD/USD´s decline over the past few days has taken it to below the mid-July low at 0.8999 and the breached downtrend channel line, now at at 0.8927, thus fell to .8932, before recovering.

“Should the latter level give way, the August low at 0.8849 will be back in play. Over the next few days a bounce should be seen instead.”

“Longer term we will remain negative while below key resistance at 0.9388/0.9404 (2011 low and 2009 high) with our downside target being seen at 0.8550, the 50% retracement of the move up from 2008.”

“Our longer term downside target measured from the top is 0.7700. Medium term, while capped by resistance at 0.9232/0.9319 (July and current August high), our downside bias will remain in place.”

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - GBP/USD drops towards the 200 day moving average at 1.5515

Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank notes that GBP/USD has come close to but did not quite reach the uptrend channel resistance line, 200 week moving average and the June peak at 1.5716/55 before rapidly declining.

“Another interim top is now likely to be in place. For this to be confirmed it will have to fall through the mid-August low at 1.5424.”

“En route are the 200 day moving average at 1.5515 and the 1.5432 July high.”