== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - USD/CAD momentum building for push above 1.0600

UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's commodity-based currencies and outline the technical positions.

In terms of the AUD/USD, “There is scope for more weakness and support focus is at 0.8848, a break below, which would expose 0.8545. Resistance is at 0.9082 ahead of 0.9233, suggesting a bearish outlook.”

Moving to the USD/CAD, “There is an important resistance range at 1.0609/58. With the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, there is scope for more upside to test 1.0804. Support is at 1.0456 ahead of 1.0422, suggesting a bullish outlook.”

[Abo Abdullah]

The S&P 500 is down 21 points, or 1.3%, to 1636 as the market begins to kick and scream about the taper. Traders are rushing into the safety of bonds and the 10-year has broken back into the July-early August range with yields now down 6.5 bps on the day to 2.72%.

There are stops in USD/JPY below the big figure but another set of strong bids is protecting 96.90, which represents the Aug 20 low. Afterwards, there are bids at 96.50, also in size.

[Abo Abdullah]

The downward slide in USD/JPY gets slowed down by solid bids at 97.00, but stops under 96.80 are only becoming more vulnerable

[Abo Abdullah]

ECB’s Asmussen sees ‘good economic weather’ in eurozone

[Abo Abdullah]

Morgan Stanley’s current open FX trades and orders

Here are Morgan Stanley’s current open FX positions and limit orders as of August 27 2013

1. Long USD/JPY: from 97.00, and from around 98.50, with a stop at 95.75 and a target at 106.

2. Long USD/CHF: 1 unit, from 0.9210, with a stop at 0.9130, and a target at 0.97.

3. Short GBP/USD: 1 unit, from 1.5570, with a stop at 1.5750, and a target at 1.4800.

4. Long USD/CAD: 1 unit, from 1.0330, with a stop at 1.0350, and a target at 1.0800

5. Long CLP/COP: 1 unit, from 3.73, with a stop at 3.70, and a target at 3.80.

6. A limit order to sell 1 unit NZD/USD from 0.795, with a stop at 0.817, and a target at 0.730.

[Abo Abdullah]

NZD/USD Stops blow 0.7762 might come in focus during Asia

[Abo Abdullah]

Overnight press: RBA’s Edwards says the Aussie dollar is still too high

RBA board member John Edwards, in an interview in the Wall Street Journal overnight:
•The Australian dollar is still too high
•It remains a brake on economic growth
•It is likely to fall further in coming months
•$A needs to weaken more to cushion the economy from the rapid cooling of the mining-investment boom

It is “still a bit too strong to help, to the extent it could, in the transition we need to make,” he said.

Says the next leg down for the Aussie$ will come when the U.S. Federal Reserve begins to wind back its bond-buying program

Australian Dollar Still Too High, Says Central Banker (The Wall Street Journal is often gated, so if you’re unable to access the article try a search of Google news using the headline)

[Abo Abdullah]

RBS - GBP/USD struggling to hold momentum

In the US, the FOMC July minutes con
tinued to suggest that a September tapering of asset purchases is likely, and this appears to have provided the USD with some support against the GBP, suggests the RBS Research Team.

However, “this still remains dependent on labor market developments, leaving next week’s US Payrolls report a key focus for markets. This week, with Carney expected to do his best to jawbone UK rates lower, GBP/USD may struggle to maintain recent positive momentum.”

Meanwhile, “with last week’s flash Euro-zone PMIs also pointing to ongoing improvement in the Euro area economy and ECB comments that recent developments leave further rate cuts looking unlikely, EUR/GBP may have some upside.”

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[ابو راجي]

يعطيك العافية ابو عبدالله

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS FX Strategy

FX Technicals

EURUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.3452, a break above which would open 1.3520 ahead of 1.3711. Support is at 1.3298 ahead of 1.3206.

USDJPY BULLISH As long as support holds at 95.81, the potential is for resumption of upside astrending indicators are bullish. Resistance is at 99.34 ahead of 101.53.

GBPUSD NEUTRAL The pair is consolidating and with momentum pointing lower, the risk appears tobe more weakness to test the strong support at 1.5373. Resistance is at 1.5612.

USDCHF BEARISH
As bearish conditions persist, there is scope for further weakness to test important support at 0.9130. A move below which would expose 0.9022 Resistance is at 0.9247 ahead of 0.9301.

AUDUSD BEARISH There is scope for more weakness and support focus is at 0.8848, a break below which would expose 0.8545. Resistance is at 0.9070 ahead of 0.9233.

USDCAD BULLISH
There is an important resistance range at 1.0609/58. With the trending indicators pointing higher, there is scope for more upside to test 1.0804. Support is at 1.0456 ahead of 1.0422.

EURCHF NEUTRAL Support is at 1.2268, a break below which would expose 1.2219. Resistance is at 1.2363 ahead of 1.2434.

EURGBP NEUTRAL With the cross closing above 0.8606, there is scope for a prolonged recovery to 0.8669. Support is at 0.8577 ahead of 0.8505.

EURJPY BULLISH Important resistance range is at 132.74 and 133.80. A close above which would extend the strength. Support is at 129.29 ahead of 127.98.
*
NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action
Source: UBS FX Strategy

[Abo Abdullah]

يعطيك العافية ابو عبدالله

الله يعافيك ان شاء الله ياابو راجي

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, & SP500

EUR/USD: Tools in positive gear but action is slow. Short-term Fibo-adjusted "Ichimoku tools" are in positive gear with the 21day "Kijun-Sen" acting as support. The 21day regression is also retaining a positive slope but the market isn’t making any great use of the 2 standard deviation band (showing muted directional conviction over the past week). Watch how any break outside 1.3320-1.3410 to get some kind of directional indication.

USD/JPY: BIG bea print delays upside break. Yesterday the yen “heaven” status was heavily underestimated. Earlier respect to the Fibo-adjusted shortterm "Ichimoku cloud" and yesterday's bearish benchmark candle, breaking below 96.91 also indicates a 96.50 test before the market may be allowed to recover. Yesterday's mid-body point at 97.75 is likely the key near-term ref to keep in mind if/when the market recovers again.

AUD/USD: The monthly low lies in harm’s way. Downpours still attract better volumes than recoveries. Following earlier failed tests at the Fibo-adjusted short-term "Ichimoku cloud" and later the declining 21day "Base line" has fed into sellers’ initiative under last week’s low (0.8932) and this point to and below the Aug/yearly low of 0.8848 and into 0.8770 before pushing into short-term overstretched territory.

S&P 500 : Closed below support. The setup continues to be a bearish one and yesterday’s break and close below both last week’s low point as well as below the 55d ma band (which now acts as a ceiling) adds to the bearish picture. Following the textbook the market should now continue down to the 1594 support, the equality point between the Aug02-22 decline and the one that started on Monday.