== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Erste Group - Trends & Levels For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, & EUR/CHF

The following are the trends and levels for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, and EUR/CHF as provided by the technical strategy team at Erste Group.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

IMF sends Greece another $2.3 billion

The IMF sent another €1.7 billion down the Greek sinkhole, despite some protestations late last week.

[Abo Abdullah]

Why analysts are so bearish on EUR/JPY

Barclays sees a move to the Ichimoku cloud base at 128.80. Commerzbank notes that last week’s highs were accompanied by a divergent RSI and recommends selling rallies into 130.60 and 131.10 with a stop at 132.80. SocGen notes the double-top and targets 128.00 followed by 124.95.

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - Get Ready To Scale In EUR/USD Shorts From 1.33; Stay Short Cable For 1.51

EUR/USD is approaching tougher resistance offered by the 2013 resistance line at 1.3334 and the key resistance at 1.3360/1.3417, notes Commerzbank.

"This is where the 2011-2013 downtrend, the 200 week ma and the June high meet and we look for it to hold the topside and provoke failure. We note the 13 count on the 240 minute chart and this offers additional resistance at 1.3325. The market stays bid intraday above 1.3165. Below here targets 1.30 and loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 recent low and April low," CB adds.
In line with this view, CB advises clients to prepare to scale in EUR/USD shorts from 1.3300, and 1.3370, with a stop at at 1.3425.

Same for GBP/USD where CB notes that both of the Elliott wave signals and TD counts continue to point to failure at current levels.

"Loss of the 1.5265/55 support is needed to signal the resumption of downside pressure and re-target the 1.4854/32 support zone," CB projects.

In line with this view, CB advises clients to stay short GBP/USD (from 1.5375), leaving both of the stop and target unchanged at 1.5435, and 1.5100 respectively

[Abo Abdullah]

EU 1.3300 caps short term - charts POSITIVE

Consolidation offshore - opens as 1.3300 offers/barriers cap
CitiFX Wire saw moderate volume with corporate demand around 1.3270
5, 10 & 20 dma's trend higher with Bolli's - momentum studies neutral
Signals suggest a 1.33000 break is just a matter of time
Close below 1.3207 10 dma would change bullish short term view

[Abo Abdullah]

EU 1.3300 sees bulls taking a breather

Bulls struggling to keep momentum since breaking above Apr / May highs
1.33 big figure seeing good offers - 2 "doji-like" daily candles in a row
1.32 is now key support - bullish above / bearish on daily closes below
200 week MA lies at 1.34 - key level to watch - twice failed there in 2013

[Abo Abdullah]

Asia Market Report

Market Briefings

•US leveraged funds sold USD/JPY, though the eyed stops under 97.50 weren't touched
•AUD/USD saw good selling from both real money and model funds
•Australian accounts bought AUD/USD as it hit .9200
•Model funds shorted NZD/USD when it broke .8055
•Tech funds sold GBP/USD
•EUR/USD sold by US leveraged funds to push it into stops sub-1.3250; model funds also sold
•Japanese exporters sold into USD/JPY as it reached 98.00
•Sentiment across the board is very cautious
•Many moves based on positioning ahead of Wednesday's FOMC or staying out of the way
•Resultant effect could be erratic moves and/or very stale markets
•Some stops were clearly hunted; these short-term plays still in effect
•USD remains very weak and selling rallies still preferred for now

EUR/USD

•Varied selling interest from 1.3300 up to 1.3350
•Buy stops large above 1.3300
•Sovereign bids at 1.3240
•Sell stops growing under 1.3230

AUD/USD

•Negative bias still looms; though a push above .9350 would cause a strong shift in sentiment
•Offers in good size ahead of .9300
•Stops from macro funds and specs into .9350
•Bids ahead of .9180
•Sell stops under .9170, larger under .9120

NZD/USD

•Sentiment still positive toward NZD, but it does suffer from trading in line with AUD
•Offers in good size at .8100
•Large stops just above the big figure
•Strong buying interest ahead of .8000
•Sell stops below the big figure and more under .7950

USD/JPY​

•Downside bias still very evident
•Offers at 98.20 and 98.50
•Buy stops above both bid levels
•Strong bids ahead of 97.50
•Sell stops under 97.50 quite large and have been targeted

KEY NEWS

•New Zealand Building Consents prior reading 1.3% (22:45 GMT)
•Japanese Household Spending forecast 1.0% (23:30 GMT)
•Japanese Unemployment Rate consensus 4.0% (23:30 GMT)
•Japanese Industrial Production expected -1.4% (23:50 GMT)
•Australian Building Approvals expectations 2.3% (01:30 GMT)
•RBA Governor Stevens Speaks (03:05 GMT)

[Abo Abdullah]

European Market Report

EUR/USD

•Bids seen at 1.3240 and from 1.3220 to 1.32
•Sell stops in good size sub-1.32
•Offers lined up at 1.33 and 1.3320
•Buy stops above the big figure

GBP/USD

•Bids at 1.53 and in better size from 1.5260 to 1.5250
•Sell stops around 1.5290 and large beneath 1.5250
•Offers at 1.5380, 1.5420 and 1.5450
•Buy stops building above the recent high @ 1.5410

USD/JPY

•Bids at 98.00 and 97.50/60 in good size
•Sell stops accumulating sub-98.00 and sizeable below 97.50
•Offers at 98.80 and from 99.00 to 99.20
•Buy stops resting above 98.50 and sizeable above 99.00

AUD/USD

•Bids at 0.9050 and larger from 0.9020 to 0.90
•Break below 0.90 would attract momentum funds selling
•Sell stops in good size seen below the big figure through 0.8980
•Offers building at 0.9130 and 0.9170
•Buy stops are being placed above 0.9150

EUR/JPY

•Bids at 129.50 and 129.00
•Sell stops through 129.40 and larger sub-129.00
•Offers at 130.60 and from 131.00 up to 131.20
•Buy stops at 130.70 and in better size around 131.20/30

KEY NEWS

•07:00 GMT (03:00 EST) - Spanish GDP
•09:00 GMT (05:00 EST) - Euro Zone Consumer Confidence
•12:00 GMT (08:00 EST) - German Consumer Price Index

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse FX Technicals

•AUDUSD has collapsed lower overnight after again rejecting the top of its range, and below .8998 should see the medium-term bear trend resume, for .8770, then .8546.
•NZDUSD has found selling ahead of the .8139/80 barrier, and we look for a fresh topping effort here.
•USDJPY’s immediate focus stays on support at 96.96/63, beneath which would look to 96.96/75, and potentially 94.56.
•EURUSD still stays bullish for 1.3342/1.3418, which we look to cap.
•GBPUSD continues to stall at the 1.5394 barrier, heightening risk of a top.
•USDCHF has found buying at .9263/42, but above .9396/9410 is needed to turn the trend higher.

[Abo Abdullah]

Deutsche Bank FX Desk Report

EUR

A very quiet overnight session with eurusd bouncing around within a very tight range.
Could be more of the same during our session as hard to see many fireworks ahead of the event risk the next few days. This week starts in earnest on Wednesday with US ADP and FOMC – and then keeps rolling with ECB on Thursday and NFP to close the week.

ECB could be a rollercoaster as Draghi weighs the conflicting issues of the improving PMIs but also the tighter credit conditions prevalent – will he signal more accommodation or give us more info around the weak forward guidance he introduced last meeting?

1.33 has proved a very tough nut to crack on the topside and for this reason alone a break through should see a bit of a spike. Stale stops still lingering around there but a few more sellers sneaking in to the book as I write so the pop could be short-lived. To the downside, few short-term stops below 1.3230 as this has been the bottom of the consolidation of the past few sessions. That being said, feels to me playing a break today not terribly prudent given the rest of the week. On the day, would say fading a break either side the way to play unless something changes the picture dramatically.

GBP

The prevailing theme yesterday was the amount of dollars the US Corp community bought heading into month end.

Cbl weakened accordingly and we open in the middle of last weeks range. We favoured strength for the first part of the week with the view of resetting shorts towards 1.5500-1.5550 for Thursdays policy meeting.
Entry levels now will more than likely be recalibrated lower, good luck.

CHF

The summer is upon us and EURCHF once again opens heavy. Still believe tapering happens in September, but one will have to weather these retracements in the USD patiently.

Flows have been very light in the Swiss mostly driven by technical models and macros reducing long option structures.

Look to own USDCHF on a close over .9540 solidifying a m/t bottom. With such a large data week we need to await the Fed on Wednesday and BOE/ECB Thursday in order to find some type of direction for the USD. Something that has been pointed out to me has been the lack of orders in orderbook as corps/RM pull away from FX awaiting more central bank clarity. Seems to me the covering has largely all been macro and model focused and so a strong payroll Friday or clarity earlier in the week may bring that supply of ccys back into the mkt. DXY also at a critical juncture down here.
We are long of upside USDCHF structures..
Tomorrow the KOF Leading Indicator (July)

AUD

Stevens speech moves pricing to 23 bp priced for cut next week ie (done deal). Construction data also very weak.
AUD does not take it well at all, and continues its destructive tone in the 90-93 range.
Hard to sell down here, but don’t see much option – more dovish outcome, and Stevens very happy with the lower ccy, with scope for it to extend. Expect offers back towards 9120/40 window. Be interesting price action below 8990. .

NZD

AUDNZD selling the theme over night, and stopping NZD moving far at all. Very consistent theme here. Hard to believe the NZD curve pricing can continue to hang in, but trying to avoid the temptation to hit bids, as better currencys to short if you think the USD will do better this week.
Demand builds under 7950. But expect NZD to remain pretty stable.

JPY

USD/JPY reprieve as the Nikkei manages to bounce after a few days of steady decline. Trader market caught a little short and stops triggered above 98.20.
Orderbook skewed to the downside with stops below 97.50 and light net selling to 99.20.
Positions light ahead of the big week ahead. Overall favour higher in line with our medium term view but going to need the ducks to line up over the week.

CAD

USDCAD remains lacklustre with ranges contracting ahead of the event driven week.

CAD data has been stronger of late but the domestic calendar is light this week with only May GDP on the docket.

Copyright @ Deutsche Bank 2013

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

FX Technicals

EUR/USD - BULLISH

With the bull trend intact as reflected by the MACD above its zero line, potential is for the pair to move above 1.3297 to test the key resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3166.

USD/JPY - NEUTRAL

The sharp sell-off since Thursday faces a strong support at 96.75.A closing break below this would trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 98.87 ahead of 99.64.

GBP/USD - NEUTRAL

Following the test of significant resistance at 1.5394, the pair came under pressure. Initial support is at 1.5263 ahead of 1.5198.

USD/CHF - BEARISH

Any upside should be limited as the MACD settled below the zero line, reflecting bearish conditions. Resistance is at 0.9367. Potential is for resumption of downside with support at 0.9264 ahead of 0.9130.

AUD/USD - BEARISH

As the momentum tools have crossed lower, focus is for further weakness. Support is at 0.9121 ahead of 0.8999. Upside should be limited with a strong resistance at 0.9333.

USD/CAD - BEARISH

The pair extended its weakness and is trading just above the significant support at 1.0241. Resistance is at 1.0303 ahead of 1.0349.

EUR/CHF - NEUTRAL

There is a strong support at 1.2313; a closing break below this would be negative. Resistance is at 1.2372 ahead of 1.2408.

EUR/GBP - BULLISH

The cross bounced from the support at 0.8570. With the MACD above its zero line, focus is on upside towards 0.8711 and then, 0.8815.

EUR/JPY - BULLISH

Weakness since last week tested the critical support at 129.77. With the MACD still above the zero line, the risk is for the resumption of upside. Resistance is at 131.17 ahead of 132.74.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

Source: UBS FX Strategy

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse recommends selling AUD/USD at 0.9150 with a 0.9230 stop and 0.8775 target

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/USD - talk that pre-0.9050 demand also includes an Asian sovereign name; but path of least resistance clearly down, so just matter of time until we will see those stops below cleared

[Abo Abdullah]

German central bank (Bundesbank) noted buyer of EUR/GBP in good size