== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD & SP500

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Still great uncertainty. Nothing from yesterday’s price action helping to determine the next move from here. With mixed signals (Thursday = a bearish engulfing candle and Friday = a mildly bullish piercing one) it is probably wise to stay sidelined and await Mr Market to show the way. It is however worth to take into account that the longer the market stays tight to the 2011 and 2013 top lines the greater the risk of an attempt to break them.

EUR/JPY: Great caution breaking 129.35. Clearly an interesting setup with the market falling through the June trend line rising back up to it and then falling off again. The behavior has created a potential “kiss and goodbye” formation and a break of 129.35, the confirmation point for the formation, could see the pair spiraling lower in an impulsive decline.

USD/CAD: Watch that b-wave high. Even if the setbacks are painfully deep we are maintaining the positive pattern of rising lows and highs hence keeping the medium term up trend intact. After the recent three wave setback we are back on track higher and are next looking for a b-wave high test, 1.0445, and a break/violation will confirm that a new trend high is well underway. Sliding lower from here will attract buyers in the 1.0330/40 area, we think.

S&P 500: Some hesitation noted. The small doji cross candle noted yesterday indicates some hesitation but there’s really not much to focus at other than the triangle target at 1723 as long as we remain above the mid body point of the Aug 01 rising benchmark candle, 1692.

[Abo Abdullah]

CitiFX - USD/JPY trading heavy as the recovery to 98.60 fades away, the bank notes decent demand to emerge around 97.60 while offers rest at and above the 99.00 level

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY – Stops under 97.80 cleared after the bids were worked through. Next major level at 97.50 where we have good bids in front of large stops below

USD/JPY – In addition to a large amount of stops under 97.50, a break below that level will encourage good selling from Japanese tech accounts and momentum funds

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD pushes through strong offers at 1.3310 and clears stops above , next offers at 1.3340-1.3350 in good size from options players, but even more stops above that

[Abo Abdullah]

Danske Bank - Why Risks Are To The Downside For EUR/GBP Near-Term?

Momentum is building in the UK economy. Yesterday, service and construction PMI jumped to 60.2 and 57.0, respectively. For service PMI it is the highest level since June 2006. The strong service PMI came after manufacturing PMI jumped to 54.6 and Nationwide house prices rose 0.8% m/m also in July.

The acceleration in the UK economy would before the “Carney era” probably have brought forward rate hike expectations. The strong numbers mean even more focus on the “assessment of the use of thresholds and forward guidance” that will be published tomorrow.

Market expectations are definitely high and the risk of Carney disappointing the market is growing for every strong UK number published.

Considering the many short GBP positions in place risks are to the downside for EUR/GBP short-term.

[Abo Abdullah]

Goldman Sachs - FX Desk on AUD

RBA cuts rates as expected with the statement probably not as dovish as the market had expected (hoped) for. Much debate thus far about if the easing bias has been dropped or not given the changing in the wording to the last paragraph (absence of “may provide some scope” from previous months) – I don’t think the RBA has dropped the easing bias its just a small tweak in the wording given the decision to cut this month with the RBA intent to give a more balanced perspective. It remains clear that further easing is data dependent and in fact the tone on benign inflation (even with impact of lower AUD) implies the RBA may still have room to go. The rally in AUD induced by the fact the market had hoped for more in the wake of Stevens’s speech last week and will be interesting to see if any follow through on SOMP later this week. Many have been waiting to add to shorts on a rally and feel like this is a reasonable entry with the first resistance at 0.9020 given we have cleared the post payroll highs of 0.8970. Supports defined at 0.8920 and cycle lows at 0.8848 below, the orderbook now largely cleared.

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY continues to be sold hard along with buying in EUR/USD; USD well-offered across the board. No direct shift in sentiment from news releases or important speakers points to predatory plays, leaving stops quite vulnerable

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Merrill - Time To Sell Cable Targeting 1.4783

Bank of America Merrill Lynch has been a consistent bearish on GBP/USD as of late seeing it very vulnerable to a broad bullish USD turn over the coming days.

"The US Dollar Index basing argument remains intact, despite failing at pivotal 82.41 resistance. Given this backdrop, the recent gains in Cable (from the 1.5201 lows of Aug-01) should be seen as corrective and temporary, before the larger downtrend resumes," BofA projects.

In line with this view, BofA pulled the trigger today on a short tactical GBP/USD position at market (1.5355) with a stop at 1.5440, and a target at 1.4783.

"As such, we recommend going short at current levels for a resumption of the larger bear trend to 1.4783/67 and, ultimately, below to the May’10 lows of 1.4228. Our stop will be above 1.5438. Price can’t trade above here," BofA advises.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

SocGen - Why EUR/USD Rose So Much & When To Sell?

"Identifying extreme levels in EUR/USD. We use a short-term model based on a concept of quantile regression to identify the extremes that EUR/USD could reach. The 95% quantile is 1.3420 where major stops are located, while in the past we have overshot even these extreme estimations by 2.5% (1.3630) and 5% (1.3970).

In line with analysis, SocGen recommends to sell EUR/USD in the 1.3420 to 1.3630 range identified by its models, targeting a move to 1.25 by year end.

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY – Some confusion over whether 97.50 was actually hit or was missed slightly; a barrier at that level would be considered cleared if 97.50 was touched. Banks suggest the low print was, in fact 97.50, but many still looking for confirmation.

USD/JPY – Stops under 97.50 very vulnerable, but bids at 97.50 have held so far

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse - Look For EUR/USD To Top Circa 1.3342/55; Stay Short With A Stop At 1.3435

EUR/USD is trading just beneath key resistance at 1.3342/55 – the recent high, 61.8% retracement level and downtrend from 2011, notes Credit Suisse.

"We still look for attempt to top here, but removal of 1.3190/64 is needed to confirm and aim at 1.3128/20 – 38.2% of the July rally. With the rising 200-day average just below at 1.3095, we would look for this to hold at first. Beneath can target 1.2994/80 next," CS projects.

In line with this view, CS maintains its short EUR/USD trade from 1.33 with a stop at 1.3435, and a target at 1.3025.

[كتكوت]

جازاك الله خير اخونا ابو عبدالله
لو تكرمت موقع الاخبار و التحاليل
رمضان كريم
تحياتى

[Abo Abdullah]

جازاك الله خير اخونا ابو عبدالله

لو تكرمت موقع الاخبار و التحاليل
رمضان كريم
تحياتى

حياك الله يالغالي ليس هناك موقع معين هذه المعلومات تصلني هكذا وبعضها من رويترز وبلومبيرغ

و فور كاست و من البنوك العالميه وغيرها , يمكنك المتابعه هنا يالغالي وهذا حصري للمتداول

العربي وانا بالخدمه , وفقك الله ورزقك ان شاء الله .

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY coming off of its lows at 97.50 as short-term funds were unhappy with the lack of follow-through behind the downward move and covered their short positions