== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

EU idling above 1.3300

* EUR/USD opens Asia higher despite hawkish turn in Fed expectations * Much better German Industrial Orders and broad USD weakness supports * EUR/USD traded as high as 1.3323 before sovereign selling capped * Key resistance at July 31 trend high at 1.3345 * Hourly support has formed at 1.3280/85 John.Noonan at thomsonreuters com Copyright (c) 2013 Tho

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/CAD – Stops above 1.0440

AUD/USD – Options players and selling interest into .9000 have brought this pair back down from its highs. Stops above .9010 still intact. Asian bids into .8920 and more demand at .8900 with sell stops under the big figure.

GBP/USD – Offers into 1.5500 have controlled this rally, but short-term players have already lined up stops above that big figure


Macro funds buying GBP/USD as it continues to hold its rally

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS FX Technical Levels

EUR/USD - BULLISH With the bull trend intact, as reflected by the MACD above its zero line potential is for the pair to move above 1.3345 to test the key resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3233 ahead of the critical 1.3120.

USD/JPY - NEUTRAL The recent sell-off is approaching the critical support at 96.75.A closing break below this will trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 98.59 ahead of 99.95.

GBP/USD - NEUTRAL Sharp advance was seen since Friday, is held by the critical resistance at 1.5394. A closing break above this would be positive. Support is at 1.5281 ahead of 1.5213.

USD/CHF - BEARISH The pair is approaching the first support at 0.9229. A move below this would trigger further sell-off towards 0.9130. Resistance is at 0.9297.

AUD/USD - BEARISH The pair is targeting support at 0.8771. A move below this would trigger further sell-off towards 0.8545. Upside should be limited with a strong resistance at 0.9028.

USD/CAD - NEUTRAL Upside is held by key resistance at 1.0428. Support is at 1.0324 ahead of the significant 1.0241.

EUR/CHF - BEARISH With the trending and momentum pointing lower potential remains for further downside. Support is at 1.2268 ahead of 1.2219. Upside should be limited with a strong resistance is at 1.2348.

EUR/GBP - BULLISH Following the test of critical support at 0.8628, the cross advanced. Potential is for a move above 0.8694 to test the critical resistance at 0.8815.

EUR/JPY - BULLISH With the MACD still above the zero line, the risk is for further upside. Resistance is at 133.80. Any downside will again be held by strong support at 128.86.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, AUD/NZD & SP500

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, AUD/NZD and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Should turn lower from here. As long as 1.3345 isn’t passed the rise from last Friday will be counted as a potential correction to the Jul31/Aug02 decline. To confirm that a serious attempt to turn lower is underway we need to pass 1.3233. If our assumption is wrong and we pass 1.3345 the June peak at 1.3418 will come into play.

EUR/JPY: Downside pressure mounting. With the violation, however not yet sustained, of 129.35 another step toward a more profound downside reaction was taken. Short term the poor follow through below 129.35 might attract a few buyers but unless returning and closing today above 130.73 we think that the next major step will be down to 128.58.

AUD/NZD: Heading for fresh trend lows. The (Fonterra induced bounce) didn’t last for long as bears took the opportunity to sell the cross at a higher rate. Now having filled the weekend gap continued decline to new trend lows looks like a done deal. The next major target is the 1.08/1.10-area (ideally the current wave will end at 1.0871 (161.8% of wave 1).

S&P500: Below 1,689 should open for 1,671. Earlier hesitation translated into a modest selloff yesterday. Time spent/a session close below the (blue) 8day "Conversion line" would suggest extension towards the (red) 21day "Base line" and prior low pints at 1,673/1,671/1,666. A fresh high would have room for 1,729 without stretching it.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

US leveraged accounts noted sellers of USD/JPY, stops under 96.70 have been eyed

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Merrill - USD Index Set To Base As EUR/USD Creates A 'Diamond Top'

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is still calling for USD Index to base and turn higher over the coming days despite the Friday rejection by 82.41 resistance.

"Against 81.57/40, worst case 80.84/80.49 the basing argument remains intact, with a close above 82.41 confirming a resumption of the larger bull trend for 84.75 and beyond," BofA projects.

Meanwhile BofA thinks that EUR/USD is creating a Diamond Top against Feb/Jun trendline resistance at 1.3316.

"An impulsive break of 1.3250 confirms the formation, opening the Aug-02 low at 1.3190 and an eventual resumption of the larger bear trend for the 200d at 1.3096, then trendline/head and shoulders neckline at 1.2818 and eventually 1.2457 and below," BofA projects.

In its technical portfolio, BofA runs a short tactical GBP/USD position from 1.5355 with a stop at 1.5440, and a target at 1.4783.

[Abo Abdullah]

Hot money selling EUR/GBP; stops under .8570

[Abo Abdullah]

Hot money selling EUR/GBP; stops under .8570 in good size

Real money noted buyers of GBP/USD; pair is remaining well-bid overall

USD/JPY – Leveraged accounts continue to sell and with risk off from equities falling, this pair is trading very heavy

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD –leveraged accounts and Real money noted Start offers building at 1.3340/50 in good size

[Abo Abdullah]

Nomura - EUR/USD: Bullish Consolidation Ahead Of An Eventual Breakout

EUR/USD more critical polarity zone at 1.3190/74 is strong support and as long as prices can hold above this level, the market could be seen as in a phase of bullish consolidation ahead of an eventual breakout, notes Nomura.

"The broken hourly uptrend along with 2 long-term downtrends (one from February and one from 2011) are repelling prices near the 1.3330 zone. RSI failing at the 60 zone is further weighing on our bullish long-term outlook," Nomura adds.

"A break of 1.3325/55 is still needed to clear a path for higher prices," Nomura projects.

However, in the very short term Nomura notices a rising-wedge pattern which suggests another pullback ahead to support at 1.3266/1.3233 before resuming the up-move.

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/USD cleared stops and forced some hedge funds to close their short positions as it moved above .9010

EUR/USD being bought by corporate accounts noted near the highs

USD/JPY – Stops under 96.50 cleared

[Abo Abdullah]

A blow for Italian banks as Monte Paschi losses grow

Embattled Italian bank Monte Paschi reports a second quarter loss of €279 million compared to €149.7 million expected.

The headline has reeled EUR/USD back in a few pips after hitting a session high of 1.3335 moments before. Still, if EUR/USD can break 1.3345/50, it’s off to the races.

[Abo Abdullah]

Fitch affirms Germany’s AAA rating with stable outlook

Fitch says the government has overachieved on some key fiscal targets and that debt-to-GDP has peaked.