== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Barclays - 4 Reasons To Stay Tactically Short EUR/USD Targeting 1.28

EUR/USD is set to lose ground over the coming days and weeks on the back of the following 4 fundamental reasons, says Barclays Capital:

First, the divergence in the business cycles between the US and euro area is likely to become more apparent as H2 13 rolls on. Private sector spending looks stronger and more able to deliver sustained progress in the US than in Europe. Indeed, subdued euro area new orders and hiring intentions point to a sluggish recovery later this year. On the flip side, consumer confidence and investment intentions in the US remain robust, indicating that a continuation of the business cycle expansion is likely.

Second, the tightening in liquidity in the euro area continues, leading to spikes in the EONIA fixing and supporting the EUR. Barclays believes that these spikes in euro area interest rates are temporary in a world where the ECB controls the front end of yield curve using its forward guidance.

Third, recent Fed rhetoric has been able to push out market pricing of the first hike in the Fed funds rate to mid-2015. Barclays think the further extension in the timing of the first hike is limited and would be inconsistent with FOMC’s own projections of the Fed funds ratesAs such, this implies the broader USD strengthening trend remains very much alive.

Finally, short positions in EUR/USD have likely declined following the squeeze over the past two weeks. This is reflected in the smaller short positioning of CTA managers as implied by the CFTC’s net futures position of non-commercial traders.

In line with this view, Barclays maintains its macro tactical short EUR/USD position (opened this week from 1.3266 with a stop at 1.3430 and a target at 1.28).

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Merrill - USD Index Basing Intact; USD/JPY Bullish Engulfing Candle Risks S/T Bearish View

On July 30th, Bank of America Merrill Lynch projects that "the decline in the US Dollar Index is drawing to a close. The persistent intra-day bullish momentum divergences say weakness should hold 81.40/54 (retracement support and the 200d average), with a break back above 82.41 confirming a base and resumption higher. On such a $ turn, we think £ and AUD will be particularly vulnerable."

Today, BofA stands firmly behind this USD bullish view arguing that its ongoing basing and turn will keep unfolding over the coming days.

Recalling from this July 30 note, BofA excluded the USD/JPY from this USD turn advising clients to "stay bearish USD/JPY targeting 93.65/93.73, potentially the larger range lows at 90.91 before renewed basing."

Today, BofA warns that with Thursday's Bullish Real Body Engulfing Candle coupled with an increasingly corrective decline from the 101.54 highs of Jul-07, its bearish view for 93.65/93.79, potentially 90.9 seems to be incorrect.

"FOR NOW WE ARE STICKING TO OUR GUNS, but if 100.16 (channel resistance) gives way, odds would favor a continued push to 101.54, potentially the larger range highs at 103.74 AND WE WILL BE FORCED TO CUT BAIT AND REASSES," BofA outlines its technical bias on the pair.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, & SP500

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Near-term picture flipping into bearish. Yesterday's candle is the most bearish daily print in almost a month. The short-term RSIs are showing loss of upside momentum and downside pressure increase. The 8day "Conversion line" was yesterday broken and focus comes with the Jul25 low of 1.3166 now. Local resistance is thought to build around yesterday's mid-body point at 1.32.

GBP/USD: Short-term key 1.5028 ref in sight now. Yesterday’s low session close puts heavy pressure on support at market. A "Lower Range Extension" today (bearishly violating the European open hour range) would argue for extension towards the short-term key "B-wave low" at 1.5028 – under which the Jul low of 1.4814 also would become prey. Shorts still recommended, now with a 1.5270 stop. If also long EUR/GBP from yesterday's dip, consider taking them back home given EUR/USD outlook.

USD/JPY: The +101s back in sight. A correctional low is probably in place. Yesterday's bullish candle/high session close shows near-term demand and support is likely strengthening fast around 98.75. The next intermediary ref to look for is located at 100.46 ahead of the more important 101.05 ref – over which the Jul high (101.54) would end up in harm’s way.

S&P500: Upper break points towards. Yesterday's bullish candle show renewed demand at high levels. A short-term 161.8% Fibo projection ref at market is also threatened and once convincingly passed there would be room for 1723 without stretching it. Support is likely forming around the prior high and yesterday's mid-body point in the 1696/93-zon.

[Abo Abdullah]

Cable offers clustered around 55 and 100-day moving averages

Cable offers at 1.5280 ahead of technical resistance at the 55 and 100 dma levels but the offers stretch to 1.5310 and then thin out until 1.5350.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP/USD - Offers from Middle East accounts at 1.5310

EUR/USD - Sovereign offer at 1.3300, but stops above 1.3310 growing in size

Demand for GBP from macro accounts continues

USD/JPY - US leveraged funds hopping on board to sell, clearing stops under 98.80. More bids at 98.50 with stops below

EUR/GBP - Sentiment turning negative as GBP becomes well-bid. A push below .8680 will spark more selling from momentum funds

Hedge fund noted sellers of USD as they continue to square out their long positions

[كتكوت]

جازاك الله خير اخى ابو عبدالله

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Doji at trendline worries Bulls

Multiple rallies post-jobs data falter pre-1.3300, stops >1.3305/10 are safe
Sov offers into 1.3300 limit gains, if cleared more offers pre-1.3350 barrier
So far weekly doji in place near trend resistance, could be a warning for bulls
Diverging weekly RSI another signal rally may be out of gas
Bulls need 1.3410/20 break (200WMA,June high) soon if rally to persist
If no break bears likely emerge.

[Abo Abdullah]

جازاك الله خير اخى ابو عبدالله

حياك الله يالغالي ونورت الموضوع دائما الي يفرحني هو الدعاء , وفقك الله ورزقك خير الدارين ان شاء الله

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse - Holds EUR/USD, GBP/USD Shorts, Sells USD/JPY From 99.10

Credit Suisse maintains its technical tactical short EUR/USD position with a stop at 1.3435, and a target at 1.3025.

CS also maintains short GBP/USD position for 1.5050, with a stop at 1.5329.

Finally, CS entered a new technical tactical short USD/JPY today from 99.10, with a stop at 99.80, and a target at 97.

"USD/JPY has accelerated its recovery from support at 97.66/63, and the extension through 98.51 established a near-term base. The bigger test remains at the converging range high at 100.27/46. We would expect selling here," CS says outlines its rationale behind this call.

[Abo Abdullah]

Barclays - Outlooks & Strategies For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, & NZD/USD

The following are the latest technical outlooks and strategies for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at Barclays Capital:

EUR/USD: Trendline resistance keeping our outlook bearish. A close above 1.3255 is needed to challenge the outlook (and turn neutral). Until then, we look to fade upticks for a test of 1.3165 and potentially 1.3000.

USD/JPY: Support at 97.20 continues to hold firm as a range unfolds between 99.20 and 100.30 (trendlines on either side). We are neutral between these levels though a close above 2.75/76% in US 10y yields or a close above 100.30 in USD/JPY would likely warn of a test of 101.50. Our preferred bias is ultimately for a break higher though we are prepared to be patient before turning strongly bullish.

AUD/USD: We are bearish though are tightening our stop loss levels to 0.9000. Downside objectives are to 0.8830 before a potential bounce. In the coming weeks, the more important resistance level is at 0.9350 and while below this level, the medium-term outlook remains negative.

NZD/USD: Having met the initial target near 0.7900 and with trendline support at 0.7830 approaching, we prefer turning neutral. A break below 0.7830 is needed to turn bearish once again for a test of 0.7730 and 0.7680. Resistance is at 0.8000.

Source – Barclays FX

[Abo Abdullah]

TD Securities - Weekly Technical Outlooks For EUR/USD, & USD/JPY

The following are the weekly technical outlooks for EUR/USD, and USD/JPY as provided by TD Securities.

EUR/USD: Choppy trading over the past few days leaves EUR/USD ending the week still looking overbought (with the slow stochastic oscillator rolling over bearishly on the daily chart) and trend resistance on the daily chart at 1.3311 just about holding the EUR advance. Overbought stochastic oscillator signals have done an OK job of calling the major highs of late (bearish signal confirmed by a move back under 75%). We also note that that daily trend resistance coincides (roughly) with strong, overhead resistance on the weekly chart (below). While the EUR has popped higher today, we rather think that the balance of technical risks suggests that EUR strength may not persists and that short/medium-term risks actually point lower overall. Bullish prospects are only enhanced by a sustained move above 1.3412.

Weekly trend resistance (1.3357) is containing the EUR advance and the weekly “doji” candle suggests that the move up seen over the past three weeks may be stalling (down week and lower close next week confirms a medium-term peak/ reversal). At the very least, with spot at the upper end of the recent trading range, we have to favour short positions and look for a drop back to the 1.30 area near-term (at least).

USD/JPY: USD/JPY’s modest recovery from cloud support zone this week stalled against key trend resistance at 100.13. Short-term price signals suggest a strong rejection of the 100 area today which may refocus attention on supports around the 98 area in the early part of next week. We still think the broader risk in USD/JPY is geared towards more USD losses in the next few weeks. Medium-term price signals suggested a peak/reversal formed in early July around the 101.53 peak (weekly bear reversal against a retest of the base of the major bull trend channel). Seasonal patterns turn JPY-supportive August through November and are especially strong historically in August (more consistent and more powerful moves in the last 20 years).

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - Next Week's Trading Ranges & Bias For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, & Other FX Spots

In the table below, Commerzbank outlines its expectations for next week's trading ranges and bias for EUR/USD, and a selection of other currency pairs.