== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP/USD - dealers note stops below 1.53 looking vulnerable

[Abo Abdullah]

Model/prop funds buying EUR/AUD; momentum still looks very strong

Dealers continue to see Real Money account selling AUD/USD and suggest they have offers resting above 0.91

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/JPY - broke below the 89.00 level, more pain for the longs to come and not much technical support until 87.50

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD - A corporate name seen as on-going seller, but the pair seems to absorb it easily; could test sovereign offers pre-1.33 soon

NZD/USD - bias still up, but risk appetite rather low ahead of the FOMC; buying dips remains the preferred strategy with solid demand at 0.7950 and 0.7920; some offers lining up at yesterday's high near 0.8040, but supply not heavy until 0.81

USD/CHF - offers again building at 0.9320, more seen at 0.9350; bids noted at 0.9270 and 0.9250 with sell stops beneath

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/JPY - if the 130.00 level holds, further demand from leveraged money likely with stops above 130.60 targeted

[Abo Abdullah]

HSBC- "leave The EUR Alone & Play Cable From The Short Side"

Focus of the day:

"We expect the ECB to remain in a wait-and-see mode, keeping the refi rate on hold at 0.5% and the deposit rate at zero at this meeting. Compared to the Fed and the BoE this could be relatively hawkish although the rhetoric may be deliberately dovish in an attempt to prevent a rise in long-end yields. We would leave the EUR alone for the moment...We expect no change at the 1 August MPC meeting, and in our eyes the 7 August Inflation Report is the key date for the UK. In the inflation report we think a nominal GDP growth threshold could be adopted but no additional loosening for now. The 7th of August, not 1st, is the date to focus on. For GBP it is important to note the BoE’s recent statement accompanying its decision to leave policy unchanged sought to break the link between the US interest rate expectations and those in the UK...On this basis Cable should be trading below the 1.50 level. Anything dovish and GBP will have to play serious catch up, anything hawkish and GBP is already ahead of the game. On balance we think Cable is too high."

David Bloom, Paul Mackel, Daragh Maher, Stacy Williams, Mark McDonald, & Robert Lynch - HSBC

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP/USD - Stops under 1.53 start to strikes and getting cleared in the session – Level1

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Agricole - EUR/USD A Buy On Dips; To Squeeze Higher Towards 1.34 This Wk

Neither weak Spanish GDP, nor poor EMU sentiment (e.g. consumer, economic and industrial) measures are likely to apply meaningful pressure to EUR today. More important than European data will be any unexpected shift investor sentiment ahead of Wednesday’s US GDP and Fed announcement.

Although no FOMC member speeches are scheduled, markets will be sensitive to media comments similar to that witnessed last week from the WSJ’s Hilsenrath.

Indeed with no new news expected from Thursday’s ECB, we maintain EUR/USD is a ‘buy on dips’.

We look for EUR/USD to squeeze higher today, and possibly throughout the week targeting 1.34, depending upon the content of the Bernanke press conference Wednesday.

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP/JPY - stops sub-150.00 looking vulnerable and no major demand seen until 149.00 if we break below

USD/CAD caught in tight range as two-way flows continue; offers ahead of the 1.03 level, while bids are resting at 1.0250; stops seen building on both sides

Traders bought EUR/GBP in anticipation of central bank demand at the EoM Fix @ 11:00 AM BST

GBP/AUD trading at 3-year highs; next technical resistance noted at 1.76

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, & SP500

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Weakness more apparent under 1.3165. Action was slow yesterday while tucking in ahead of U.S. data flow later in the week. Some selling seemingly went through but staying power below yesterday's low of 1.3239 is needed to get the near-term more important 1.3165 ref in sight. A session close above 1.3298 would expose the Jun high of 1.3418.

USD/JPY: Checking resistance at 98.75. Under 97.70 would target 96.95/80, but support was stronger than thought. This morning’s move up from this short-term "Equality point" (at 97.70) has reduced the immediate risk for extension lower and instead put renewed pressure for a re-test of resistance at 98.75 – over which also 99.60 could be tested.

AUD/USD: Ending the upside attempt? Intraday conditions are overstretched after the Asian hour’s sharp drop, but a low session close today would most likely end the prior attempt to correct medium-term stretched conditions. If so, the recent 0.8998 low would likely be taken out with an initial move targeting 0.8870 (= 2011-2013 lower parallel & triangle target). Local resistance is likely forming around the Jul25 low of 0.9130.

S&P500: Still near-term balanced. No change from the recent days’ coma. Both 1670 & 1696 need to be watched for fresh directional hints. Below 1670 would target 1666 or even 1649/1645, while over 1696 would allow for 1715 without really stretching it.

[Abo Abdullah]

Former UK MPC member says UK growth at escape velocity

Dame Deanne Julius speaking in London
•More UK monetary stimulus not needed

She noted that


We are at a rate of growth that’s probably close to trend rate after a long period of bouncing along the bottom

It’s sustainable. I don’t think it’s particularly balanced

On QE she said


The question is how and when we unwind it

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP/USD - stops sub-1.53 now being cleared; light bids seen at 1.5280, larger demand at 1.5250/60

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Brief - London

[LONDON 10:00 GMT July 30] Another day, another dull affair in EUR/USD. A lively session was just never going to happen. There is way too much event risk this week. FOMC, ECB, NFP, ISM,GDP and Chicago PMI and month-end as well. Each day is likely to see traders turning their attention from risk event to the next, while attempting to sit on their hands. Event risk has propped vols off last week's lows, but vols may well subside given the anchoring nature of each day's data events. Today euro/crosses have been well bid. EUR/GBP bought for month-end. EUR/AUD now the favoured long of most market speculators. But EUR/USD was sold by corporates for month-end. And sovereign sellers seen ahead of 1.3000. Hence the impasse at 1.3275, the mid-point fo this week's range. There is a high probability that trade now settles within .3250 and 1.3285 expiries. jeremy.boulton at thomsonreuters com

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Techs expectation for the 30 day UPPER B Band

Scope remains on the upside for a test of the 30-day upper BB @1.3359
Daily momentum remains positive, adding to the overall upside potential
Layers of support have formed in the 1.3207-1.3239 region
We have placed a bid @1.3245 in anticipation of a bullish resumption
Chart: http://link.reuters.com/cuj99t

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/AUD - strong demand from system funds & prop traders; stops from short-term specs building through 1.4580

USD/JPY - Banks note sell stops through 97.80 in good size

Dealers note that rising UST yields supporting the USD