== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Asia Market Report

EUR/USD
•Offers in good size at 1.3300, more at 1.3350
•Sell stops light above 1.3300
•Bids at 1.3250, larger at 1.3180 and 1.3160
•Sell stops below 1.3230 and 1.3150

AUD/USD
•Offers at .9280 through .9300
•Buy stops above the big figure
•Bids at .9230, .9190 and .9150
•Sell stops under .9200 and .9100

NZD/USD
•Heavy offers at .8100
•Buy stops above .8100 in good size
•Bids at .8050, ahead of .8010 and .7950
•Sell stops below .8050, larger under .8000 and .7900

USD/JPY
•Offers at 99.50, 100.00 and ahead of 100.40
•Buy stops above 100.00 and large over 100.50
•Bids ahead of 98.80, more at 98.50
•Sell stops below 98.70


KEY NEWS
•Japanese Core CPI expected at 0.3% (23:30 GMT)
•Japanese CPI expected 0.1% (23:30 GMT)
•Tokyo Core CPI forecast 0.3% (23:30 GMT)
•Tokyo CPI 0.2% (23:30 GMT)

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - USD/JPY Eroding The 55-Day MA; Stay Short For 97.95

USD/JPY is underpinned by it cloud support at 98.75/97.63 and blocked on the topside by its 101.60/78.6% retracement, says Commerzbank.

"Should the base of the cloud be eroded, it will leave the market under pressure and likely to slide back to 96.75/95.40 en route to the 93.75 recent low," CB adds.

To negate this relatively bearish view, according to CB, the pair would need to break above 101.60 which would then re-target the 103.74 May peak.

In line with this view, CB advises clients to stay short USD/JPY with a stop at 101.65, and a target at 97.95.

[Abo Abdullah]

Sterling After UK GDP And Ahead Of Next Week's BoE - Citi

Valentin Marinov, head of European Group-of-10 currency strategy at Citibank discusses the outlook for sterling after this week's UK Q2 GDP and ahead of the BoE's August meeting next week. (via Bloomberg).

http://bloom.bg/1bRaVDL

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Doji ahead of 1.3300 MAY lead to PULLBACK

Marginal new high made but near unch on day, doji in place, says indecision Stops above 1.33 but large offers 1.3325-50 might keep bulls at bay Big US events next week (Fed,PMI, GDP,NFP) keep mkts in check Bids into 1.3250 support for now but some stops just below Larger stops at 1.3210, mkt may run for stops if no 1.33 break soon Below 1.3210 puts cloud top & July 25 low in play

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse - Allow One More Push Higher For EUR/USD, GBP/USD Then Fade

EUR/USD managed to stem early selling at minor trendline support, now at 1.3151, says Credit Suisse.

"The subsequent bullish outside range day keeps the immediate bias higher for the top end of the range at 1.3342/75 – the trendline from the May 2011 high and the 61.8% retracement of the February/April decline. We continue to look for this to cap, and would fade strength towards here," CS adds.

In line with this view, CS maintains a long EUR/USD position targeting 1.3340 with a stop below 1.3076. CS' plan is to fade further strength in the pair upon hitting target by reversing into short with a stop above 1.3435.

Same for GBP/USD where early setback found buying at the 13-day EMA and price support at 1.5264/51.

"A clear break above 1.5394 is needed for a push up 1.5478, then 1.5534/76. The latter marks the 200- day average and price resistance, and we would look for this to cap.

In line with this view, CS also maintains a long position with a stop below 1.5155, for 1.5530. CS' plan is to reverse this long to a short upon hitting this target with a stop above 1.5603.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/USD - Stops under .9220 starting to attract attention

[Abo Abdullah]

JP Morgan FV Model - G10 FX Valuations & Forecasts

The following tables provide JP Morgan's latest FX valuations and forecasts as generated by its long term fair value (FV) model.

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - Looking To Reinstate Scaling In EUR/USD Shorts At 1.3335, And 1.3370

Commerzbank is not giving up on selling EUR/USD yet. After stopping out of its EUR/USD shorts yesterday at 1.3280, CB is back today with another attempt to scale into new shorts on a bounce into 1.3335, and 1.3370 with a stop at 1.3425.

"EUR/USD has eroded the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3275. This suggests further gains to the 2013 resistance line at 1.3337 and then the key resistance at 1.3373/1.3417. This is where the 2011- 2013 downtrend, the 200 week ma and the June high meet and we look for it to hold the topside and provoke failure," CB says outlining its technical bias on the pair.

"The market stays bid intraday above 1.3165. Below here targets 1.30 and loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 recent low and April low," CB adds.

[السنابل الخضراء]

كل عام وانتم بخير
موضوع رائع لاصحاب الخبره وصعب على المبتدأ لانه هياخد الكلام سطحي او كمعلومات مصدقه وهو في الاساس تحليلات من اصحاب خبره داخل البنوك قد تصيب وقد تخطيء
بارك الله فيك وجعله في ميزان حسناتك

[Abo Abdullah]

كل عام وانتم بخير
موضوع رائع لاصحاب الخبره وصعب على المبتدأ لانه هياخد الكلام سطحي او كمعلومات مصدقه وهو في الاساس تحليلات من اصحاب خبره داخل البنوك قد تصيب وقد تخطيء
بارك الله فيك وجعله في ميزان حسناتك

حياك الله اخي الغالي وانت بخير ان شاء الله , نعم اخي صعب على المبتدأ ولهذا انا دائما بين فتره

واخرى اضع تنبيه لكي يطلع عليه اكبر عدد ممكن ( لعلك اطلعت عليه ) واكيد ان التحليلات لاتكون دائما

تصيب حتى لو كانت من اكبر البنوك العالميه واقرب مثال امس عندما اعلنوا بنك باركلي وكومرس

بنك انه تم ضرب الستوب بالنسبه لصفقه اليورو( المشاركه 880 ) وهذا دليل على انه حتى اكبر البنوك

تخسر في بعض الصفقات , ويبقى لدينا ان نحاول دائما ان نقرب وجة نظرنا مع التحليلات ومع ما نراه

من واقع في السوق مع احتساب الاسوأ بالنسبه للسيناريوهات قبل الافضل , نورت الموضوع يالغالي

ووفقك الله ورزقك ان شاء الله .

[Abo Abdullah]

أخواني الاعزاء جميع هذه الاخبار و التوقعات والتقارير تعتبر استرشاديه ويجب علينا ان

نعرف كيف نتصرف معها قبل المتاجره والهدف منها ان نعلم ما يدور بالسوق اول بأول

وليس دائما تكون السيناريوهات طبق الواقع حيث اننا نعلم ان واقع السوق متغير دائما حسب

الاخبار سواء السياسيه او الاقتصاديه وحسب توجه كبار المستثمرين بالسوق , وهنا اوجه

كلامي بالاخص الى الاخوه المبتدئين ان ينتبهوا الى هذه التقارير وان لا يتعاملون معها على

انها واقع 100% ولتكون لهم بمثابه الاسترشاد والتوقع وعليهم ان يقارنوها مع باقي التحليلات

ومن جميع النواحي قبل اتخاذ القرار بالمتاجره , اما الاخوه اصحاب الخبره و المحترفون فأعتقد


انهم سيعرفون كيف التعامل معها وفي الاوقات المناسبه لكي يستفيدوا منها ويعلموا ما يحدث

بالاسواق .

يعني مثلا هذا الخبر

EUR/USD – HSBC demand noted at 1.2980 in good size
From Singapore - Desk

ليس معناه ان السعر سيطير وسيتغير الاتجاه لان ممكن البنك يطلع بعد اخذ الاوردر بعد 10 او 20

نقطه وحتى احيانا 5 نقاط تكون صفقات سريعه وبكميات كبيره .

خصوصا اذا كان هناك اتفاق مع فروع البنك في الدول الاخرى حيث يقوم فرع مثلا في لندن ببيع

كميات كبيره ويقوم نفس البنك بفرعه في سنغافورا بالشراء بسعر اقل بعد الهبوط بكميات اكبر وهكذا

وهذا على سبيل المثال وليس الحصر.

ملاحظه : سأعيد هذه المشاركه بين فتره وأخرى لينتبه عليها الاخوان الذين لم يطلعوا عليها .

وفقكم الله جميعا ورزقكم

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY shorts were the best trade this week

USD/JPY fell 2.55% this week, the biggest move of any trade in the FX market. The entirety of the move came in the last two days.

Heading into the week, all the talk was about the Japanese election. The LDP didn’t disappoint and delivered a victory at the high end of expectations. When the market opened, USD/JPY edged higher to 100.75 but then began a slide that accelerated below 100.00 as Tokyo opened. The early-week slide was essentially wiped out by late on Wednesday as USD/JPY climbed to 100.45.

On Wednesday, we repeatedly wrote about offers at 100.50 and those held like a wall even as the dollar enjoyed a broad bounce. Eventually, USD/JPY failed at 100.50 three times and that was the tell. Beginning early yesterday, USD/JPY embarked on an extended slide that touched as low as 97.96 today.