== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - EUR/USD Correctional High . USD/JPY Mid-Body Test . GBP/USD Soon There . SP500 Possible H&S

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: A fresh correctional high. Yesterday’s dip down to 1.3164 sent two messages (peak to trough in an hourly chart became a clear three wave corrective pattern and by holding above the 1.3160 support the pattern of rising lows were kept),both short term bullish. Accordingly a new correctional high, 1.3239, was set. The price action overnight also looks corrective so unless breaking 1.3164, 1.3257 or 1.3275 lurking.

USD/JPY: Mid body test completed. The bounce came close (100.19) to the mid body point (100.23) before falling back confirming the exit of the short term bear flag. The behavior is strengthen our view of being in the early stages of the next leg lower, down to 97.20 (95.40) within the larger bull triangle.

GBP/USD: Soon there. The advance is slowing as we are homing in on the primary correction target, 1.5435. As earlier described we think this area offers a good opportunity selling the pair. Short term we see firm support at 1.5326 and only staying power below indicates a premature peak.

S&P 500. Slowly rolling over for a correction. The past two days we’ve seen the market moving up to a fresh all time high only to immediately falling back into the prior range. The behaviour, especially this close to the next target, 1702, is potentially worrisome. We also note a possible head and shoulders top in the hourly graph so a relatively high downside risk for today, Keep an eye of what happens breaking 1687.

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY - Japanese offers still resting at 100.50, but stops now growing above that mid figure

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank Keeps Scaling Into Short EUR/USD At 1.3250

Commerzabank added another short EUR/USD position from 1.3250 today: the second trade in an attempt to scale into short from 1.3175. For the full structure, CB placed the stop at 1.3280, with an open target (for now).

"EUR/USD’ s current strength is expected to terminate ahead of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3275. The market stays bid above 1.30 and loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 recent low and April low," CB says as a rationale behind this call.

"While further chopping around within the 1.2940-1.3275 limits is likely we look for the more important resistance at 1.3373/1.3415 to hold. This is where the 2011-2013 downtrend, the 200 week ma and the June high meet. While capped here, an overall downside bias will persist," CB adds.

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

The following are the latest technical outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by UBS*:

EUR/USD: (Bullish) With the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, focus is on further upside. Key resistance is at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3134 ahead of 1.3052.

USD/JPY: (Bullish) Any downside will be held by strong support at 98.57, which was held previously on a closing basis. Focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at 103.74.

GBP/USD: (Neutral) Upside is held by a strong resistance at 1.5394. A closing break above this would be a bullish development. Initial support is at 1.5258 ahead of 1.5171.

AUD/USD: (Bearish) With the bear trend intact, focus is for further downside. Initial support is at 0.9138 ahead of 0.8999.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

Aggressive leveraged accounts still selling AUD/USD, targeting the .9150 stops

EUR/USD and USD/JPY also being clearly affected by the USD strength and are also near stop levels

[Abo Abdullah]

Bearish reversal appears on the gold chart – technical analysis

Gold has extended its losses tot $1320 after touching a one-month high of $1349 in Asian trading. The turnaround in gold threatens to form a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart.

Yesterday’s close above the 55-day moving average (for the first time since November) encouraged the bulls but a fresh round of selling is underway as the dollar finds better footing. What me might see is a classic ‘buyer’s remorse’ trade where gold retests the breakout of $1300 before heading higher

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/USD - Stops under .9150 cleared, still holding good follow through

AUD/USD continued it's drive downward, helping push EUR/USD into stops under .1.3190

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Deutsche Bank - US Summer Seasonals: Implications On EUR/USD, USD/JPY

US data surprises have largely followed the average pattern of the prior 10-years, and the recovery in recent weeks can then be seen as largely following the seasonal pattern of a summer improvement, notes Deutsche Bank.

"If this continues surprises will remain in a risk friendly zone of being not too hot, but not too cold, for the next few weeks. US data surprises have tended to again turn lower as summer turns to fall, however, falling into negative territory in 8 of the past 10 Septembers," DB adds.

So, what does this mean for USD/JPY, and EUR/USD over the next few weeks this summer?

"As to what this could mean for FX, it can be seen in Figure 2, the relationship between USD/JPY and US data surprises has become somewhat looser over the past year as the significant policy steps in Japan have weighed on JPY. It can also be seen that even during the past 6-9 months the best gains in USD/JPY have been made when the US MPI has been in positive territory, suggesting a turn lower in US data surprises would make it harder for USD/JPY to make further headway," DB answers.

"The seasonal pattern in eurozone data surprises is far more muted than that for the US – including a much more muted pattern in early September. With relative data surprises having been a relatively good indicator of EUR/USD trends in recent years (arguably surprisingly so given the number of nondata factors driving sentiment on the eurozone’s prospects through this period), this would tend to argue that some seasonal upward pressure may be seen on EUR/USD," DB projects.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/CAD touches the 100dma then retreats to the 55dma

USD/CAD isn’t always the most technical pair but it broke yesterday after taking out the 55-day moving average, the 61.8% retracement of the June-July rally and the July 11 low. The declines continued today as it sank through the 100-day moving average and down to 1.0263.

Risk trades are now falling and the USD/CAD has rebounded to the former zone of support. The technical move is awfully similar to cable. Overall, all currencies are along for the ride as the ebb and flow of the US dollar dominates.

[Abo Abdullah]

EURUSD loses the upside momentum before New Home Sales

As show on the 4 hour chart below , the EURO/Dollar loses the upside momentum , resistance is at 1.3255, support is at 1.3205, stability below 1.3205 on a 4 hour closing basis will reverse risks to the downside towards 1.3160 ahead of 1.3066 levels.

Note that a failure to hold below the 1.3205 levels could mean a return to the 1.3255 levels, stability above 1.3255 levels on a 4 hour closing basis will extend gains towards 1.3300 ahead of 1.3330 levels.

The EURO rises today as a result of positive PMIs from the EURO zone, but In less than 1 hour - 15:00 GMT - the U.S. is to release official data on New Home Sales, a leading indicator of economic health,this report tends to have strong impact when it's released , the market is likely to fluctuate strongly ....

A higher reading than 484K should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower reading than 484K should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

[Abo Abdullah]

US new home sales 497K - the USD is bullish

This is the monthly report of new single-family home sales, it is produced by the census bureau and contains prices and inventory figures of new homes at the national level.

The value of this month is 497K , higher than expectations, the impact of the new home sales on the forex market is not very direct, if new home sales are high - as today - it may signal an increase in inflation, high inflation may then force the government to raise interest rates in the nearest future in a bid to contain the dollar value, this may affect the dollar’s forex rates indirectly.

As a result of this , fears and rumors may control the market , and buyers are likely to buy the USD just in case or hoping that the fed will raise interest rates in the nearest future....

US new home sales 497K - the USD is bullish !

[Abo Abdullah]

EURUSD – Intraday Strategy (24 Jul 2013)

Recommendations: LONG positions above 1.3189 with 1.3235 & 1.3270 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 1.3189 will call for a slide to 1.3160/1.3115
Description: The pair's already found support at 1.3189, as long as this level holds , It will try higher towards 1.3240 , break of 1.3240 will pave the way towards 1.3280 ahead of 1.3300 levels, an hourly close below 1.3180 will reverse risks towards 1.3160/1.3120 levels.