== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Nordea - Global Interest Rate, Fixed Income, & FX Forecasts

The following tables provide Nordea Markets' latest global interest rate, fixed income, and FX forecasts.

Note: “chg” is the change in percentage points from forecasts 24 June to current forecast

[Abo Abdullah]

CAD/JPY showing outside reversal but support looms – technical analysis

The CAD/JPY is showing a key outside reversal back below the 55-day moving average. At the moment, the Canadian dollar is being lumped in with its North American neighbor and is lagging today. I think soft corporate revenues are the culprit but I understand that’s a tough argument to make with stocks hitting a record high.

If the soft-USD theme continues, look for CAD to suffer as well. Overall, the technicals are showing the potential for a further pullback but it’s not a screaming sell. Moving averages aren’t the best indicators for CAD-pairs in my experience but the 100-dma is nearby at 95.68 and that’s followed by trendline support.

[Abo Abdullah]

HSBC - What Next For GBP/USD?: The One Chart That Says It All

Given the close correlation between movements in GBP/USD and shifts in relative interest rate expectations, the simplest assumption would be that the better UK growth is relative to the US, the higher GBP/USD would be, and vice versa. Right?

Not really, "it is not that straight-forward", says HSBC.

In the chart below, HSBC illustrates what they believe would be the likely reaction to developing economic news in the UK and US. HSBC examines various combinations of “good”, “bad”, “terrible” and “excellent” data releases. So they have the cyclical considerations, which are shown in our diagram with each quadrant given a lower case a,b,c,d.

Here are HSBC's findings:

a) Good US data, Bad UK data – GBP negative

b) Good US data, Good UK data – GBP negative

c) Bad US data, Good UK data – Neutral

d) Bad US data, Bad UK data – GBP positive .

"So in our inner cyclical quadrant of a, b, c, d we have GBP doing well in one out of the four cases. In other words even in a cyclical environment the odds seem stacked against GBP," HSBC finds outs.

Then HSBC moves to the more extreme outcomes where growth is not simply bad or good, but terrible or excellent: Here are those findings as well:

A) Excellent US data, Terrible UK data – GBP negative

B) Excellent US data, Excellent UK data – GBP positive

C) Terrible US data, Excellent UK data – GBP negative

D) Terrible US data, Terrible UK data – GBP negative

"In fact, our interpretation of different possible outcomes is that most of them point to downside risks for GBP-USD, with only a couple of instances arguing for GBP-USD gains...GBP-USD is likely to fall further," HSBC concludes.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[AL Ayman]

أخى أبو عبد الله .. كالعاده متورط فى صفقة و محتاج مساعدتك أخى الغالى .. فقد قمت ببيع الأسترلينى دولار من سعر 1.5265 أمس لأنه كان تحت 1.61 فيبو واليوم وصل إلى 1.61 فيبوناتشى و لكن أغلب القراءات تشير إستمرار صعود الأسترلينى ضد الصفقة و العياذ بالله .. فماذا ترى أخى المبارك
الكريم .. لأننى خسران 90 نقطة فى الصفقة و عندى صفقتين .. جزاك الله خيرا

[Abo Abdullah]

USDJPY – Weekly Forecast 22-26 Jul 2013

Fall from 101.52 treated as a second leg of 103.73 consolidation, support is at 98.24, below this level will pave the way towards 97.00 levels ahead of 95.00 levels.

On the upside , resistance is at 101.52, break of this level will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 103.73 levels, break of 103.73 on a weekly closing basis will have large bullish implication towards 111.00 levels.

In all, as long as 103.73 holds on a weekly closing basis, the pair will remain under pressure with risk towards 90.00 levels, If seen, fall from 103.73 is likely to be contained well above 87.30 levels where strong rise is suggested

[Abo Abdullah]

EURUSD - Weekly Forecast 22-26 Jul 2013

The EURUSD maintained some bullish momentum last week, topped at 1.3178, and bottomed at 1.2993, pressure remains on the key resistance 1.3206, the EURUSD will have to hold above the 1.3206 levels on a weekly closing basis to push the market for further upside gains ,If seen it will target the 1.3330 levels ahead of 1.31415 levels.
Alternatively, a failure to hold above the 1.3206 levels could mean a return to the 1.2755 levels, losing 1.2755 will target 1.2660 ahead of 1.2500.
On the daily chart, the daily close above 1.3145 may recapture 1.3206 with a breach and target 1.3330 levels,before the next fall, keep that in mind, support is at 1.3082,13065,1.2990 ahead of 1.2920(main), note that stability above 1.2920 levels will keep 1.3206 under pressure and the pair is likely to try higher towards 1.3300 levels , a daily close below 1.2920 will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2755.

[Abo Abdullah]

أخى أبو عبد الله .. كالعاده متورط فى صفقة و محتاج مساعدتك أخى الغالى .. فقد قمت ببيع الأسترلينى دولار من سعر 1.5265 أمس لأنه كان تحت 1.61 فيبو واليوم وصل إلى 1.61 فيبوناتشى و لكن أغلب القراءات تشير إستمرار صعود الأسترلينى ضد الصفقة و العياذ بالله .. فماذا ترى أخى المبارك
الكريم .. لأننى خسران 90 نقطة فى الصفقة و عندى صفقتين .. جزاك الله خيرا

حياك الله يالغالي , الاسترليني لديه مقاومه قويه عند مناطق 15410-15395 واذا اغلق اربع

ساعات او يومي فوق هذا الرقم ممكن ان يكون هدفه التالي 15485 وسيجد مقاومه قويه عند هذا

الرقم , واذا اغلق اربع ساعات او يومي تحت 15330 سيكون هدفه المبدئي عند 15270 واذا اغلق

تحت هذا المستوى ساعه او اكثر فسيكون هدفه لهذا الاسبوع عند 15175 وسيجد دعم قوي عند هذا

المستوى والله اعلم , وان شاء الله كميه العقود مقارنه مع حسابك يتحمل هذا السيناريو , وفقك الله

ورزقك يالغالي.

[Abo Abdullah]

Bloomberg survey of economists – says Fed will probably cut monthly quantitative easing to $65 billion in September

•Half of the economists surveyed see the Fed cutting the amount of QE in September
•Half see QE ending in Q2 of 2014

Source - Bloomberg

[AL Ayman]

حياك الله يالغالي , الاسترليني لديه مقاومه قويه عند مناطق 15410-15395 واذا اغلق اربع

ساعات او يومي فوق هذا الرقم ممكن ان يكون هدفه التالي 15485 وسيجد مقاومه قويه عند هذا

الرقم , واذا اغلق اربع ساعات او يومي تحت 15330 سيكون هدفه المبدئي عند 15270 واذا اغلق

تحت هذا المستوى ساعه او اكثر فسيكون هدفه لهذا الاسبوع عند 15175 وسيجد دعم قوي عند هذا

المستوى والله اعلم , وان شاء الله كميه العقود مقارنه مع حسابك يتحمل هذا السيناريو , وفقك الله

ورزقك يالغالي.

آمين و إياكم .. جزاك الله خيرا أخى أبو عبد الله و جمعنا معكم فى الجنه تحت راية لا إله إلا الله محمد رسول الله .. آمين
سأتوكل على الله و أدخل لهدف 1.5175 إن شاء الله بسبحان الله و بحمده سبحان الله العظيم

[Abo Abdullah]

آمين و إياكم .. جزاك الله خيرا أخى أبو عبد الله و جمعنا معكم فى الجنه تحت راية لا إله إلا الله محمد رسول الله .. آمين
سأتوكل على الله و أدخل لهدف 1.5175 إن شاء الله بسبحان الله و بحمده سبحان الله العظيم

آمين يارب العالمين واشكرك اخي الغالي على هذه الدعوه الطيبه ولك بالمثل , وبالتوفيق يالغالي لكن اذا

ناوي تعزز بقصد هذا الهدف فلا تعزز الا من مناطق 15485 فستكون مناسبه للتعزيز اما اذا حسابك

يتحمل فهذا بحثا آخر , وفقك الله يا حبيبي ورزقك خير الدارين ان شاء الله .

[Abo Abdullah]

Erste Group -Trends & Levels For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, & EUR/CHF

The following are the trends and levels for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, and EUR/CHF as provided by the technical strategy team at Erste Group

[Abo Abdullah]

More on Bloomberg’s survey: Fed Seen Tapering QE in September by Half of Economists Surveyed

•Half of the 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect tapering to beigin in Septemebt
•Up from 44% in last month’s poll
•None expect tapering to begin at the July meeting (July 31)
•The first part of tapering is expected to be a cut to $65bn a month from the present $85bn
•Half expect a halt of asset purchases in Q2 of 2014
•24% expect a halt in Q3 2014

Source - Bloomberg

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Asia Market Report

FX OVERVIEW
•Swiss account noted as buying USD/CHF
•USD/JPY saw selling from corporate accounts
•Asian accounts were sellers of AUD/USD at the .9250 level
•US leveraged names noted buyers of GBP/USD
•Japanese accounts buying dips in USD/JPY

EUR/USD
•Outlook is negative for important data releases this week, along with overall economic and political outlook on the Euro Zone; despite this, stops over 1.3210 successfully hunted
•Offers from 1.3200 through 1.3220
•Buy stops above 1.3230
•Bids light at 1.3180, in better size at 1.3150 and large at 1.3100
•Sell stops below the mid figure and under 1.3090

USD/JPY

•Offers from 100.00 up to 100.20, in good size ahead of 101.00
•Buy stops above 100.30 and 100.80
•Bids ahead of 99.20, stronger at 99.00
•Sell stops below both bid levels

AUD/USD
•Offers at .9270, heavy selling interest ahead of .9300
•Buy stops above the big figure in good size
•Bids at .9200 and .9150
•Sell stops below the big figure

NZD/USD
•Offers in good size ahead of .8000, currently not much more resistance above that
•Buy stops above the big figure also large
•Bids at .7950 and .7900
•Sell stops light under the mid figure and heavy under the big figure

EUR/JPY
•Light offers at 131.50, larger offers at 132.00
•Buy stops above 131.80
•Bids at 131.10 down to 131.00
•Large sell stops under 131.00

AUD/JPY
•Offers light at 92.20, heavy at 92.50
•Buy stops above 92.30 and large above 92.60
•Bids at 92.00 and 91.60
•Sell stops below 91.80 and under 91.50