== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank Holds USD/JPY Short & Limit Orders To Sell EUR/USD & Buy Cable

Commerzbnak maintains a technical tactical short USD/JPY poistion from 97.90, with a stop at 98.90, and a target at 94.80.

"USD/JPY shot up to 98.66 before slipping again. A continued slide should be seen in the days to come while this high caps. As long as it does, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June-to-July rise at 95.42 will remain in focus. Below it lies the five month support line at 94.82. Over the coming weeks we allow for losses back to the 93.95/75 support area. This is where the June low and the 200 day moving average are," CB says as a rationale behind this call.

CB also has an active limit order to sell EUR/USD at 1.3480 with a stop at 1.3580 and target at 1.2800.

While acknowledging that the pair's rise above 1.3419 June peak suggests more strength to 1.3500/20 which is regarded as the last defence for the 1.3711 February high, CB doesn't favor such a strong rise, and believes that the currency pair will falter around the 1.3500 mark.

Finally, CB has another active limit order to buy GBP/USD at 1.5580 with a stop at 1.5490 and target at 1.5800.

"GBP/USD is still expected to hit the uptrend channel resistance line at 1.5727, a rise above which will put the June peak at 1.5752 on the map. Just above it meanders the 200 week moving average at 1.5752 which is to act as resistance. GBP/USD will remain overall bid while trading above last week’s 1.5424 low," CB outlines its bias on the pair.

[Abo Abdullah]

API data show crude supply down 1.2 mln barrels

Oil futures were up slightly in electronic trading late Tuesday, compared with the regular session’s close, after the American Petroleum Institute reported a decline in crude supplies that was generally within market expectations. The API said supplies fell by 1.2 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 16, according to sources. A Platts survey of analysts showed a forecast for a decline of 1 million barrels. Sources also said the API reported gasoline stockpiles down 3.7 million while distillate supplies rose by 1.8 million. Analysts expected gasoline supplies to fall by 1.5 million barrels and looked for a climb of 1 million barrels in distillates. Following the data, October crude was at $105.15 a barrel in electronic trading, barely higher than the $105.11 close on Nymex. The API data come ahead of the more closely watched Energy Information Administration report due Wednesday.

[Abo Abdullah]

Westpac - AUD's price action very disappointing amid increase in net flow

Since the start of the consolidative moves in the AUD/USD, net demand for the currency according to Westpac client flows has recovered sharply, however, "one might have expected a better performance by AUD than has been the case" notes Richard Franulovich, Westpac FX Strategist.

"Real Money, Sovereign and Hedge Fund/CTA clients have been net buyers of AUD for 9 of the past 12 trading sessions."

"As disappointing as the AUD's price action has been vis-a-vis the turnaround in our client flows, it may yet stabilise if this week's FOMC minutes lack concrete guidance on tapering as soon as the next FOMC meeting and if this week's August China PMI builds on the recent improved activity readings for China."

"However, whatever upside for AUD may exist it is surely constrained. The bottom line is that the AUD's broad price action in the wake of a solid turnaround in net flow has been very disappointing."

[Abo Abdullah]

ANZ - Beware NZD/USD bull trap

Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ analyzes the short-term outlook of the NZD/USD.

“The sharp NZD/USD retest of and secondary rebound off 0.7700 are seen as corrective. The virtual test of 0.8180 (50% retracement of the fall since April’s 0.8670 high) may raise talk of larger scale moves to 0.8300-25, but if dips are not contained this rebound should be seen as completing a sharp corrective phase.”

“Current slippage below 0.8100 highlights risk of a reversal of the recent rally (confirmed below 0.8000) and leave NZD at risk of retesting 0.7700 or even the 0.7600 level.”

“The holding of rising support (dashed red-line) and supportive weekly momentum managed to push aside the bias for further downside (towards 0.7550 or even 0.7335-50) and allow for a period of relatively strong corrective rebounds.”

“Although another rebound above 0.8100 could force a test of 0.8300-25, signs of faltering now suggest an early return to the preceding downtrend. A break below 0.7930 would confirm the risk of renewed declines towards those longer-term retracement levels.”

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Another possible FALSE Breakout

Early February saw a "fake breakout" above the 200 week MA
Daily close seen above the MA at 1.3385 - watch the weekly close
Another fake breakout is possible if not probable - bulls be cautious
MACD bearish divergences on multiple timeframes add to warning

[Abo Abdullah]

EU MBs Tech Outlook

Interim resistance 1.3450 (today’s high, 2/13 Close, Mid-month pivot)
Topside breach targets 1.35 and 1.36
Interim support 1.3340- Key support 1.3226- 1.3247 (Bullish Invalidation)
Daily RSI failure to extend passed early August highs suggests momentum waning
Key Events: German / EZ Manufacturing/Services PMI on Thursday and Consumer Confidence on Friday
Notes: A breach above technical resistance at 1.3340 earlier in the month was quickly refuted, shifting our focus lower into our primary objective at 1.3226-1.3247 (which was attained on the 13th). The reaction down there was telling with an RSI 60-breach and a push above the August highs taking the pair above the June highs. While price action does look constructive here, I remain neutral as slight RSI divergence and failure of the oscillator to overtake the previous high suggests topside momentum may be waning. Bottom line: Looking for a new high into 1.35 with RSI conviction or a push back below 1.3340 before we tempt the short-side again.

By Michael Boutros

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Range BREAK positive for 1.3480 TEST

Aug 1.3200/1.3400 range broken as tapering fears force out shorts
Opens + 0.64% - 1.3420 stops tripped - 1.3450 barrier removed
CitiFX Wire reports sizeable volume - leveraged buyers - corporate sellers
5, 10 & 20 dma's trend higher with Bolli's - targets 1.3482, 76.4% of 2013 fall
Prior 1.3380 resistance & offshore 1.3453 high initial sup/res

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

EUR/USD: (Bullish) With the trending/momentum indicators pointing higher, there is scope for more upside. Resistance is at 1.3520 ahead of the critical 1.3711. Support is at 1.3311 ahead of 1.3206.

USD/JPY: (Neutral) Resistance is at 98.67, a close above this would be positive, extending the strength to 99.95 and then 101.53. Strong support is at 95.81.

GBP/USD: (Bullish) The recent strength suggests there is scope for a test of important resistance at 1.5752, a break above which would open 1.5879. Support is at 1.5608 ahead of 1.5527.

AUD/USD: (Bearish) Initial support focus is at 0.8995, a break below which would be negative, triggering a deeper sell-off to 0.8848 and then 0.8545. Resistance is at 0.9133 ahead of 0.9233

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

Morgan Stanley - Buys USD/JPY From 97, Holds Cable Short & USD/CAD Long

Morgan Stanley enters into a macro tactical USD/JPY position via filling a limit order from 97.00 with a stop at 95.75 and a target at 106.

"We believe that the JPY rally has run its course and switch back to our bullish USDJPY position...Portfolio inflows have turned into hefty outflows, positioning has become a market-neutral factor and the BoJ has come under increasing pressure to accompany a sales tax increase with further easing. Conditions for JPY weakness are now back in place, we believe," MS says as a rationale behind this call.

MS also maintains a short GBP/USD position from 1.5570, with a stop at 1.5750, and a target at 1.4800.

"We remain bearish GBP as BoE Governor Carney is likely to flatten real rate expectations. Indeed, UK equity markets have traded softly despite stronger data, which undermines financial conditions at a key stage of the recovery. We remain bullish USD as the US economy continues to push through fiscal restraint and higher yields," MS outlines its rationale behind this call.

Finally, MS maintains a long USD/CAD position from 1.0330, with a stop at 1.0240, and a target at 1.0800.

"CAD is no longer a leveraged play on US growth in our view. High sensitivity to rising US bond yields should undermine CAD in coming months. In addition, stronger-than-expected claims data and retail sales suggest that US demand is strong, keeping a September start to tapering likely and lending support to USD," MS adds as a rationale behind this call.

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD Index, & SP500

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD Index, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Over 1.3418 alters the M/T wave count. Yesterday's rather decisive move through a medium-term key 1.3418 ref forces an earlier best fit wave structure from bearish to neutral/short-term bullish. The high end of the Fibo-adjusted medium-term "Ichimoku cloud" has already been proven supportive and now the market has to figure out where resistance lies. But first thing ought to be a recheck lower – then with yesterday's mid-body point at 1.3375 in mind as the primary “checkpoint”.

USD/CAD: Draws closer to a decisive >1.0445 test. Another near-term winner was added yesterday, bringing the pair one step closer to a decisive test of a short-term key ref at 1.0445. The move also brought the market through the high end of its short-term Fibo-adjusted "Ichimoku cloud" and dragged the (purple) “Lagging line” into a bullish confirmation (since spot now trades higher than what it did one month ago). Over 1.0445 would target a >1.0609 score.

USD INDEX: The drift extends towards 80.50. Short-term "Ichimoku tools" are all in bearish positions. Yesterday's close was the lowest on record since Jun18 and it leaves the mid Jun low of 80.50 open for a test. A convincing climb back above the (blue) 8day "Conversion line" (81.35) and the (red) 21day "Base line" (81.62) and finally a bullish looking exit above the drawn short-term trend-channel (81.67) is needed to put the index on a stronger footing again.

SP500: Bullish candle points back towards 1,668. Buyers came back to market yesterday and added a nearterm bullish candle to consider. A move back over 1,657 would center attention around 1,666\1,675 with 1,668 being the short-term heavyweight ref that could be retested. Fresh lows would steer this around again and target 1,638, 1,633 or even 1,624/1,619.

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Techs relapse in the cards

Convergence of the 30-day BBs points to an orderly move to the 30-dma
30-dma is currently @1.3250
We remain short @1.3400 and have left our stop @1.3455
Daily momentum is becoming more positive
Momentum is a risk to our current position

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - AUD/USD slips back towards the mid-July low at 0.8999

Karen Jones, Head of Currency Strategy at Commerzbank notes that AUD/USD’s rejection by the 55 day moving average at 0.9209 is taking the currency pair back to the mid-July low at 0.8999 and to the breached downtrend channel line at 0.8980 which may offer short term support.

“Longer term we will remain negative while below key resistance at 0.9388/0.9404 (2011 low and 2009 high) with our downside target being seen at .8550, the 50% retracement of the move up from 2008.”

“Our longer term downside target measured from the top is 0.7700. Medium term, while capped by resistance at 0.9232/0.9319 (July and current August high), our downside bias will remain in place.”

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank and UBS - What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today?

The single currency is clinging to the 1.3400 handle on Wednesday, as selling interest is building up ahead of the FOMC minutes due this evening in Europe. Traders will closely follow the Committee’s statement looking for any clues regarding the timing of the Fed’s tapering it QE programme.

Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, suggested the recent upside of EUR/USD could open the door to another test of 1.3500/20, although this scenario would not be favoured. On the flip side, he added, “Only a, for now, unexpected drop through the 1.3208/1.3188 support area will alleviate upside pressure. Failure here will target the 1.3000 region”.

Strategists Geoffrey Yu and Gareth Berry at UBS remain bullish on the pair, signalling, “With the trending/momentum indicators pointing higher, there is scope for more upside. Resistance is at 1.3520 ahead of the critical 1.3711. Support is at 1.3311 ahead of 1.3206”.

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - GBP/USD still has the June peak at 1.5752 in its sights

Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank notes that GBP/USD is still expected to hit the uptrend channel resistance line at 1.5739, a rise above which will put the June peak at 1.5752 on the map.

“Just above it meanders the 200 week moving average at 1.5752 which is to act as resistance.”

“GBP/USD will remain overall bid while trading above last week’s 1.5424 low.”

“Minor support above this level is seen around the 1.5574 early August high and then around the 200 day moving average at 1.5520.”

[Abo Abdullah]

RBS - EUR may continue to show surprising strength

For the time being, as the Fed weighs the possibilities of tapering later this year, EUR may continue to show surprising strength, according to Greg Gibbs, FX Strategist at RBS.

"Current account surpluses are the new black, and the Eurozone has now one of the largest and strongest surpluses (+2.5% of GDP) in the major and emerging worlds. This surplus has been achieved primarily by a massive crunch in domestic demand, including fiscal austerity, crunching imports and forcing the most productive parts of the economy to pursue export markets."

"The region has spent three of the last four years in crisis, and surprisingly to many it has lived with depression levels of unemployment. So while political and fiscal crisis remains a threat, the region has proved resilient."

"Finally the ECB has one of the tightest monetary policies, despite the most significant deflationary forces. Its has said it expects low or lower rates for an extended period, but policy hawks are not willing to tie this to any variable or time-frame. So it may be forced to purse lower rates reluctantly by a stronger EUR."