== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Merrill As USD Index Basing, Stay Short Cable Or Try A Long EUR/GBP

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is still in the USD bulls camp seeing the USD Index basing and maintaining a short GBP/USD position against t 1.5755, with a target at 1.4785.

"The USD Index continues to show signs of basing, with a move above 82.41 needed to confirm," BofA projects.

"In G10 space we are short GBP/USD as price is in the process of resuming its medium term bear trend for 1.4783/1.4767 and below. A close below 1.5438 confirms a top and turn in trend," BofA adds.

For those unwilling or reluctant to buy USD, BofA recommends focusing on buying EUR/GBP, particularly on close above 0.8575, with targets seen to 0.8805/16.

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD, & SP500

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Buyers at support. Yesterday's attempt lower was responded to in the expected support area. Players face a recent both-sides rejection when they come in today and the outcome is obscured. The innermost two refs at 1.3299 & 1.3375 must be monitored to detect a tilt.

EUR/JPY: Targeting beyond 132.75. Yesterday's sharp move up through “the Cloud” and today’s move above an early Aug "B-wave high" puts the Jul peak at 132.75 in harm’s way. If not stopping there, it would be room for another big one without stretching it. Support is likely fast building around yesterday's mid-body point and prior resistance at 131.10/05. Under 129.42 is needed to scrap the move higher as correctional.

USD/CAD: The Jul peak is fully visible now. After five clean cut winners (two of them above an earlier 1.0445 key ref) the Jul high of 1.0609 is fully visible and within reach without stretching conditions much (not at all if it takes a few sessions to get there). The prior resistance level should be supportive and worth buying into should you get the chance. South of dynamic support at 1.0415/1.0345 is needed to reconsider. Over 1.0609 would turn attention to a medium-term 1.0658 (Oct’11 high).

S&P500: Bullish “key-day reversal”! The market U-turned and managed to claim a “Bullish engulfing candle”/”Key-day reversal”. This points higher and towards a serious attempt to reclaim resistance at 1,662\1,668. Yesterday's mid-body point at 1645 ought to inspire support and hold the recent low in peace for a while.

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS and Commerzbank - What to expect from EUR/USD

EUR/USD looks to be approaching resistance ahead, with analysts split over whether the medium term outlook showing a top forming or merely representing a near term pull back ahead of further gains.

Axel Rusolph of Commerzbank comments, “The negative divergence seen between the daily RSI and the EUR/USD current August high at 1.3453 points to a top being formed. Confirmation of this would be a drop through the steep two month support line at 1.3307 and a fall through Tuesday’s 1.3323 low. Only a drop through the next lower 1.3208/1.3188 support area will mean that a significant top has indeed been made.”

Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu of UBS are bullish on the pair, believing, “The pair is under correction having tested the important resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3298 ahead of 1.3206. Resistance is at 1.3452 ahead of 1.3520.”

[Abo Abdullah]

Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank notes that USD/JPY has been flirting with the 99.00 handle overnight.

“Amid firmer US yields and a slight improvement in risk appetite levels, the USD/JPY broke above 98.50 and is flirting with the 99.00 handle in early trade on Friday morning.”

“Going ahead, a clean break above the 98.80/00 area may open the path to 99.50 while support can be expected towards the 55-day MA (98.30).”

[Abo Abdullah]

EU orderly losses expected

Convergence of the 30-day BBs points to an orderly move lower
Scope for losses to the 30-dma @1.3267 initially
We remain short @1.3400 for the aforementioned expected losses
Daily momentum remains positive, is off its highest readings
Momentum calls for an element of caution

[Abo Abdullah]

OCBC Bank - AUD/USD chops higher on Chinese PMI data

Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank notes that AUD/USD chopped higher progressively on Thursday past 0.9000 with the China PMI providing the initial impetus for aussie strength.

“In the near term however, we expect the pair to remain locked up in recent ranges pending further global cues with 0.9000 continuing to serve as a short term anchor.”

“On the upside, the 55-day MA (0.9187) may continue to cap while the 0.8915 area may cushion near term dips.”

[Abo Abdullah]

EURUSD- sovereign sell interest reported near 1.3380 in good size.

USDJPY- macro buying interest reported at 98.60 in good size.

[Abo Abdullah]

Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%):

EURUSD: 1.3390-1.3405 on the upside, 1.3275-1.3290 on the downside.

AUDUSD: 0.9075-0.9090 on the upside, 0.8925-0.8940 on the downside.

USDJPY: 99.30-99.45 on the upside, 97.70-97.85 on the downside.

GBPUSD: 1.5735-1.5750 on the upside, 1.5485-1.5500 on the downside.

USDCAD: 1.0575-1.0590 on the upside, 1.0425-1.0440 on the downside.

NZDUSD: 0.7960-0.7975 on the upside, 0.7730-0.7745 on the downside.

EURJPY: 132.70-132.85 on the upside, 130.50-130.65 on the downside.

EURGBP: 0.8600-0.8615 on the upside, 0.8485-0.8500 on the downside.

USDCHF: 0.9305-0.9320 on the upside, 0.9130-0.9145 on the downside.

AUDJPY: 90.30-90.45 on the upside, 86.70-86.85 on the downside.

EURAUD: 1.4840-1.4855 on the upside, 1.4750-1.4765 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP/USD – The rally sparked by GDP numbers quickly dies off and now stops under 1.5560 very vulnerable

AUD/USD also sees some trapped longs with stops under .8860 coming into sight

[Abo Abdullah]

Basel name bought USD/JPY
USD/JPY also well-bid by macro names and japanese accounts

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP/USD – Stops below 1.5560 through 1.5550 have been cleared, even more stops noted under 1.5540

[Abo Abdullah]

US 10yr yields starting to pick up again , carrying some USD strength with it

[Abo Abdullah]

BNP still forecasting big GBP/USD decline, says Carney will be dovish

FX analysts at BNP re-iterated their expectations for a big drop in cable this year, targeting 1.43 at year end . They say Carney will push back against rising UK yields with dovish rhetoric and the focus on upbeat UK data will fade. Rather than cable shorts, they prefer to take advatage of pound weakness with EUR/GBP longs.

[Abo Abdullah]

TD Securities - USD/CAD tracking higher

Research teams at TD Securities are looking for an extension in USD/CAD back up to the 1.6000 handle.

“The CAD finds itself towards the bottom of the G-10 performance league at the start of our trading day, with USD/CAD continuing to track higher towards the 1.06 level through Asian trading”,

“Technically, with the spot through short-term 76.4% retracement resistance at 1.0522, we look for the move up to extend back to 1.0600/50 quickly”.

“The trend higher is well-entrenched and we have revised up our target for this move to 1.08”.