== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/NZD, & SP500

EUR/USD: Near-term bearish wave count? After lackluster trading yesterday, directional hints aren’t exactly amassing. The suggested near-term bearish wave count is one possibility but would only gain credence on a drop below 1.3334. Back over 1.3410 would make it more complex but still valid. Over 1.3453 would lift sights to 1.3525\75.

USD/JPY: Should lift from correctional target. In a micro-term perspective the decline from a recent 99.15 high looks correctional. A Fibo combo in this perspective ("Equality point" & 50% retracement) works as support together with an Aug19 high. Back over 98.75\85 is however needed to fully confirm this and argue for a >99.15 move.

USD/CAD: It looks like a near-term bullish "Triangle". Action has been slow on the North-Atlantic west coast this week, but serenity is most likely a consolidation of an unfinished push to and beyond a recent short-term peak at 1.0609. Once broken, the "Triangle" targets 1.0590. Beyond 1.0609 would shift focus to a medium-term important ref at 1.0658.

AUD/NZD: Time to resell. The three wave bounce, the rejection from the bearishly sloped 55d ma band and the arrival at the equality point all points to a possible completed upside correction. More evidence of resuming the longer term bear trend (calling for a sub 1.0420 move).

S&P 500: A completed upside correction? It is possible that the market yesterday, slightly prematurely, ended the upside correction (triggered by Thursday’s bullish candle) at the 50% reaction resistance. More evidence that that’s the fact will be posted below 1650 and 1644. If our assumption is right 1593 will be a first possible reaction low.

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank and UBS - What can we do with the EUR/USD

The single currency is trading on the back footing on Tuesday, bouncing off session lows near 1.3350 ahead of the German IFO indicator due later.

In the opinion of Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, “Only a drop through the next lower 1.3208/1.3188 support area will mean that a significant top has indeed been made… Should an unexpected rise above last week’s 1.3453 high be seen, our view will probably be incorrect. In this case the 1.3500/20 region will be in focus”.

The Swiss bank UBS remains bullish on the pair, with Strategists G.Yu and G.Berry arguing, “Initial resistance is at 1.3452, a break above which would open 1.3520 ahead of 1.3711. Support is at 1.3298 ahead of 1.3206”.

[Abo Abdullah]

USDCAD- Sovereign and corporate offers noted at 1.0550/55

GBPUSD- profit taking bids at 1.5510/15 with stops below vulnerable ahead of BoE Carney speak on Wed.

AUDUSD bids for profit taking at .8920/30 reported not large

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - GBP/USD drops towards the 200 day moving average at 1.5513

Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank notes that GBP/USD has come close to but did not quite reach the uptrend channel resistance line, 200 week moving average and the June peak at 1.5716/55 before rapidly declining.

“Another interim top is now likely to be in place. For this to be confirmed it will have to fall through the mid-August low at 1.5424.”

“En route are the 200 day moving average at 1.5513 and the 1.5432 July high.”

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD – Banks , leveraged accounts and real money noted Start demand building at 1.3300/ 1.3290 in good size

[Abo Abdullah]

USDJPY- buying by JPY accts and hedge funds on dip to 97.80

[Abo Abdullah]

Repetition

Valid Till : 15.00 GMT

EUR/USD – Banks , leveraged accounts and real money noted Start demand building at 1.3300/ 1.3290 in good size

[Abo Abdullah]

EURUSD- this move being held up by Sovereign interest back at 1.3320

[Abo Abdullah]

USDJPY and Yen crosses being sold by real money, large stops through 97.50 are seeing interest.

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - USD/JPY remains below the resistance line at 99.49

Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank notes that USD/JPY has risen above the 98.66 mid-August high but did not reach the resistance line at 99.49 before coming off again.

“While the current August high at 99.95 caps on a daily New York closing basis, we will maintain our medium term bearish forecast.”

“Failure at last week’s 96.91 low will push the three month support line at 96.48 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June-to-July rise at 95.42 to the fore.”

“Below these lies the five month support line at 94.95. Over the coming weeks we allow for losses back to the 94.47/93.75 support area. This is where the 200 day moving average and the June low are to be found.”

[Abo Abdullah]

Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%):

EURUSD: 1.3410-1.3425 on the upside, 1.3280-1.3295 on the downside.

AUDUSD: 0.9085-0.9100 on the upside, 0.8910-0.8925 on the downside.

USDJPY: 99.25-99.40 on the upside, 97.70-97.85 on the downside.

GBPUSD: 1.5615-1.5630 on the upside, 1.5480-1.5495 on the downside.

USDCAD: 1.0570-1.0585 on the upside, 1.0450-1.0465 on the downside.

NZDUSD: 0.7895-0.7910 on the upside, 0.7740-0.7755 on the downside.

EURJPY: 132.30-132.45 on the upside, 130.80-130.95 on the downside.

EURGBP: 0.8620-0.8635 on the upside, 0.8530-0.8545 on the downside.

USDCHF: 0.9270-0.9285 on the upside, 0.9170-0.9185 on the downside.

AUDJPY: 89.75-89.90 on the upside, 87.60-87.75 on the downside.

EURAUD: 1.4925-1.4940 on the upside, 1.4725-1.4740 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

[Abo Abdullah]

USDJPY- 97.50 becoming a big level as JPY energy companies have interest ahead of the level

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EU setback

EU facing a setback to 1.3298 and beyond towards 1.3255, as the decline from the Aug. 20 peak at 1.3453 is threatening to accelerate. The 1.3453 peak became a confirmed EUR bull failure last week, and a break below the Aug. 22 low at 1.3298 would generate a minimum downside requirement target at 1.3255, leaving the Aug. 15 reaction low at 1.3205 exposed. Bearish crossovers on both the daily MACD and slow stochastic indicators would be confirmed on a close below 1.3370 for Tuesday's current session. A recovery above 1.3387 would put EUR bulls in control of the near term, and above last Friday's low at 1.3410 would bring the focus back onto the 1.3453 high. EUR/USD is at 1.3345.Thomsonreuters.com Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets