== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD built up stops in good size under 1.3330 now very vulnerable

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - EUR/USD: Another Top Probably Being Formed; Stay Short

The negative divergence seen between the daily RSI and the EUR/USD current August high at 1.3453 points to a top being formed, argues Commerzbank.

"Confirmation of this would be a drop through the steep two month support line at 1.3307 and a fall through Tuesday’s 1.3323 low. Only a drop through the next lower 1.3208/1.3188 support area will mean that a significant top has indeed been made," CB adds.

To negate this immediate bearish view, CB thinks that a a rise above the 1.3427 Wednesday high would be needed.

"In this case, Tuesday’s 1.3453 peak should be overcome with the 1.3500/20 region then being reached. It consists of the minor psychological level and 13th February high. This is regarded as the last defence for the 1.3711 February high. We do not favour such a strong rise, though, and believe that the currency pair has already topped out," CB adds.

In line with this view, CB maintains a technical tactical short EUR/USD from 1.3340 with a stop at 1.3455, and a target at 1.2800.

[Abo Abdullah]

Barclays - Outlooks & Strategies For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, & AUD/USD

EUR/USD: We maintain a bearish view targeting 1.3300 initially, and then the 1.3200/20 area. Sell rallies while 1.3420 caps on a closing basis.

USD/JPY: Bullish risks have increased as the US dollar Index is also showing signs of basing. A break above 99.20 (trendline) would likely warn of a run at 100.00 though we would look for a pullback thereafter. The bid remains in place while above 98.60 on an intraday basis.

GBP/USD: We are bearish, looking for a return to 1.5420 and potentially 1.5350. A move back above 1.5670 would turn us neutral instead while wider range highs near 1.5750/75 act as medium-term caps.

AUD/USD: We are turning neutral in the short term, expecting a 0.8925 to 0.9070 range. A move back above 0.9070 would likely warn of a move to 0.9200.

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - How to play a strengthening USD

The consensus has shifted since US yields began to climb in May, and most investors we speak to now acknowledge the likelihood of further USD strength ahead, notes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS.

However, “market opinion is still divided on which is the best USD to buy.
We like three in particular: long USD/JPY, long USD/CHF, and short AUD/USD (in order of decreasing merit).”

“The AUD has fallen sharply over the past three months on broad-based US dollar strength, worries over a slowdown in China, and fears over what will replace the mining investment boom in Australia.”

“We still see more currency weakness ahead, but selling AUD/USD is in third place on our list because China concerns have receded somewhat recently

[science]

UBS - How to play a strengthening USD

The consensus has shifted since US yields began to climb in May, and most investors we speak to now acknowledge the likelihood of further USD strength ahead, notes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS.

However, “market opinion is still divided on which is the best USD to buy.
We like three in particular: long USD/JPY, long USD/CHF, and short AUD/USD (in order of decreasing merit).”

“The AUD has fallen sharply over the past three months on broad-based US dollar strength, worries over a slowdown in China, and fears over what will replace the mining investment boom in Australia.”

“ We still see more currency weakness ahead, but selling AUD/USD is in third place on our list because China concerns have receded somewhat recently

[ابو لاما]

بارك الله ابو عبدالله وجزاك الله خير علئ ما تقدمه من فائدة للاعضاء جميعا
تقبل خالص تحياتي

[Abo Abdullah]

حياك الله اخي الغالي نعم مثل ما تفضلت الجمله بالاحمر سبب مزيد من الضعف للين والسويسري و

الاسترالي وهم متوقعين ان يصل الى مستويات 85 في الفترة القادمه يعني لنقل مدى متوسط حسب

التقارير السابقه التي نقلتها وخصوصا مع توقع بعض المحللين الى احتمال تخفيض الفائده مجددا في

ديسمبر .

[Abo Abdullah]

بارك الله ابو عبدالله وجزاك الله خير علئ ما تقدمه من فائدة للاعضاء جميعا
تقبل خالص تحياتي

الله يبارك فيك حبيبي عرابي ودائما منور الموضوع , وفقك الله ورزقك

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - EUR/USD should fall to 1.28 in 3 months

The consumer confidence index for the Eurozone increased for the ninth consecutive month, rising to the highest level since July 2011. On Friday, the UBS analyst team commented about the indicator and the EUR/USD.

“The EUR did not react with much enthusiasm. Moreover, the detailed split of German Q2 GDP data showed a worryingly high dependence on construction as a growth driver, which is making up for bad weather effects from Q1”.

“With the biggest positive surprises from the Eurozone likely behind us, we believe that the EURUSD should fall to 1.28 in 3 months”.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR Briefing - New York

[New York, Aug 23 19:22GMT] The euro made a early run to high's at 1.3360 on statements from ECB's Nowotny, that recent improvements in econ data from the EZ removes the need for further rate cuts. Failing to move higher on this news, the euro moved back near lows of the session to 1.3335. The euro was able to move higher on fund purchases swapping EM ccy's for DM ccy's. The euro moved back to 1.3350 as the NY session opened. The Euro traded in a light range of 1.3345/65 prior to the release of US existing home sales at 10AM. The data was weak & the USD was sold pushing through stops at 1.3370/80 taking the euro to highs at 1.3409 before reversing back toward 1.3380 as we near the NY close. In addition to the home sales data, headlines out of the Jackson Hole conference helped weaken the USD as Fed members continue to differentiate between taper & tightening, clarifying the Fed's guidance of no tightening in the near future. US 10/30 yr yields fell & Eurodollar futures climbed weakening the USD on compressing rate differentials. German IFO on Tuesday & unemployment on Thursday will be the focus as the market tries to gauge global economic growth. (PAS) Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

[Abo Abdullah]

BMO Capital Markets - USD/CAD primed for bullish break in week ahead

The USD/CAD made a bullish break through the upper end of the 5-week 1.0245/1.0445 range and now targets a move to 1.0650 which would take us back to the October 2011 highs and within sight of the 11-month old bullish channel top, suggests Greg Anderson at BMO Capital Markets.

“There has been a noticeable lack of a pullback in the 3 day run up from 1.0337, which leaves very short-term momentum indicators deep in overbought territory so the anticipated move to 1.0650 may be subject to some headwinds in the absence of a near term pullback.

“1.0490/1.0505 acts as immediate support into Friday while the 1.0445 breakout point and 1.0383/1.0438 fib support zone of the current 1.0276/1.0525 rally acts as primary support on any broader pullbacks. Bias is to the long side for a test of 1.0650.”

“If not already so positioned, look to use any pullback to 1.0500/1.0450 as an entry zone – suggested range next week 1.0450/1.0650.”

[Abo Abdullah]

Jackson Hole: ECB’s Demetriades says a rate cut is ‘still in the cards’

European Central Bank members at Jackson Hole highlighted a possible divide. Bank of Austria Governor Ewald Nowotny and Bank of Cyprus Governor Panicos Demetriades attended the event and each left distinctly different impressions.

Nowotny said he sees no immediate reason for a rate cut while Demetriades told Bloomberg that a rate cut “is still on the cards.”

[Abo Abdullah]

Barclays' Trade Of The Wk: Sell Cable Ahead Of Carney's Speech On Wed

Investors following short term macro strategies should consider selling GBP/USD this week, advises Barclays Capital in its weekly FX pick to clients.

Barclays' rationale behind this call is to leverage the potential downside pressure on cable from Mark Carney first public speech as governor on Wednesday.

"We favour owning GBP/USD downside over this event and buy a 1-week (August 29 expiry, NY cut) 1.5560 strike GBP put/USD call for 0.29%," Barclays recommends.

"The event will be held in Nottingham and includes a Q&A session. Carney may offer little new guidance and simply echo the message presented in the QIR...Short GBP positioning is significantly cleaner in recent weeks, while a structural short base remains; there has been steady buying of pounds ever since the QIR was released. Front-end GBPUSD vols have also sold-off accordingly," Barclays clarifies.

"At the same time, financial conditions remain close to their tightest level since mid-2012 as rates have backed up, credit spreads have widened and the currency has strengthened. We believe that the BoE will need to remind the market that it is focused on the unemployment rate, and unless the rate starts to decline, improvements in other cyclical data should not be reflected in steeper rates. The lack of response from the MPC thus far has been surprising, and we suspect it is a matter of time before they offer their views. MPC member Martin Weale reminded the market on Tuesday that the BoE has the scope to undertake further asset purchases, but next week’s speech may be used as a platform to hint at any future policy response," Barclays adds.

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY: Prefer to sell intraday rallies

USD/JPY had a really good chance to go higher on Friday with a big technical break encouraging buyers from all directions. The fact that it’s now lower is a telling sign and the really obvious trade today from a risk-reward perspective is to sell intraday rallies with stops clearly above Friday’s 99.15 highs, looking for a move back below 98.00.