== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

جزاك الله خيرا اخي ابوعبدالله وعطله سعيده
ولو اغلبنا حتى في العطله يقرا ويتابع السوق

الله يبارك فيك يالغالي وعطله سعيده على الجميع ان شاء الله , والله يسترنا ويحمي جميع المسلمين ان شاء

الله .

[Abo Abdullah]

EURUSD - Weekly Forecast 02-06 Sept 2013

The EURUSD maintained a bearish momentum last week, topped at the 1.3398 levels , bottomed at the 1.3172 levels, now pressure will be on the 1.3172 levels, the EURUSD will have to hold below the 1.3172 levels on a weekly closing basis to push the market for further downside losses,If seen, It will target the 1.2750 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 1.2660/25 levels.

Alternatively, a failure to hold below the 1.3172 levels on a weekly closing basis, could mean a return to the 1.3398 levels, a break would turn focus on the 1.3451 levels, further more will aim the 1.3710 levels.

In all, as long as 1.3451/398 levels hold on a weekly closing basis, the pair will remain under pressure with risk towards the 1.2750 levels.

On the daily chart, the pair needs to break and hold below the 1.3218 levels on a daily closing basis to pave the way towards the 1.3165/1.3066, at this point ,I'd expect a strong support from 1.3066 levels to contain fall from 1.3451 levels and bring reversal to the upside , however; losing 1.3066 would open 1.2992/1.2922 levels.

On the upside , resistance is at 1.3342 levels , a break above this level will open 1.3451 levels, above 1.3451 will focus on the 1.3620 ahead of 1.3710 levels.

Trend Strength (daily chart):

Very Bullish : above 1.3451

Bullish : above 1.3342

Neutral : below 1.3342

Bearish : below 1.3187

Very Bearish : below 1.3066

[Abo Abdullah]

NEWS & VIEWS: EU Probes KEY support

Friday's decline saw key 1.32 area probed - held above at close
1.32 has been important level since April - many turning points
50 day MA currently just below 1.32 - added to buyers at Fri lows
Look for likely rally from current levels at recent range lows
Pullback from 200 wk MA at 1.337 is likely temporary
Chart: http://link.reuters.com/cym72v

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - USD/JPY aiming at 100-105 range into Q4'13

In the short term, in view of Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Head of Strategy at UBS Macro Research, USDJPY remains capped by Middle East risks and fiscal policy indecision in Japan, however, Fed tapering and more BoJ easing expected reinforces the idea of a higher trend seeking a 100-105 range into Q4'13.

"We see USDJPY rising regardless of the government's final decision on the tax hike. If, as expected PM Abe agrees, then declines in the Nikkei and USDJPY next month are likely to raise the pressure on the Bank of Japan to increase its pace of quantitative easing again."

"At its October 30-31 board meeting, the BoJ will also release its semi-annual economic outlook report. If the central bank lowers its economic forecasts on the back of higher sales taxes, it is likely to implement another major step increase in its monthly pace of bond buying, as it did in April."

"Furthermore, the government may decide to soften the blow of higher sales taxes by cutting corporate tax rates. That will also help sentiment towards the Nikkei."

[Abo Abdullah]

BBH - EUR/USD to move into 1.30-1.31 next

The market is likely to be disappointed by the FOMC in Sept, according to Marc Chandler, Head of Currency Strategy at BBH, saying there are many elements to take into account but each is a potential source of disappointment.

"If the broad consensus is right and the Fed tapers in September, there can be a buy the rumor, sell the fact, behavior in the dollar and the opposite in US Treasuries."

"The market may be disappointed if the Fed reduces its monthly purchases by $10 bln rather than $20 bln. The market may be disappointed by the allocation of its tapering between Treasuries and MBS. Lastly, of course, the market would be disappointed if the Fed waited to taper. "

"However, such disappointment, if it is to come, is likely after additional dollar gains. During this phase, we initially anticipate the euro to move into the $1.3000-$1.3100 area."

[Abo Abdullah]

HSBC - Market making big bets on CAD short

Net long USD positions increased by USD3.6bn on the week to a total long of USD15.5bn in the week ended 27 August, with HSBC reporting the largest shift being an increase in short CAD positions, while EUR longs increased slightly.

Key Position Changes - HSBC

"Long EUR positions rose from USD6.2bn to USD6.7bn, setting the largest long EUR position since early June."

"Short AUD positions increased from USD5.7bn to USD6.4bn, just USD0.5bn shy of the all-time peak earlier this month."

"Short GBP positions were unchanged at USD3.7bn."

"Short JPY positions remain large at USD10.1bn."

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Choppy early signals NEGATIVE

Month end USD demand pre fix saw 1.3173 tested Fri with high turnover
35pt range around 1.3220 NY close early in Asia
Positive risk appetite on China PMI & Syria/Obama supports - USD weighs
Momentum studies edge lower - ma's & lower Bollis are cresting
Signals are negative - 1.3135/45 100 & 200 dma's beckon

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Citi Weekly FX Insight

[Abo Abdullah]

Interbank Fx Wire

JPY sold across the board as traders unwind safe-haven trades from last week  Leveraged players and macro funds aggressive buyers of USD/JPY as we went into the London session; exporter offers and stops +99.00 taken out easily  Swiss name also seen as good buyer on the break above 99.15  The pair ran into offers ahead of the 99.50 level; profit-taking noted since then  Bids building at 99.20 and 98.80 while offers clustered from 99.50 up to the big figure  EUR/USD caught in tight range this morning; directional hedge fund sold around 1.3220 while an ACB seen as buyer later in the session  Macro fund offers at 1.3235-45 and ACB supply 1.3240-50 reported; sovereign bids at 1.3180 with stops accumulating beneath  GBP/USD saw solid demand after the Manufacturing PMI release, but offers ahead of the 1.56 level have capped the rally so far; stops sizeable above  Decent EUR/GBP selling, but larger stops sub-0.8470 still intact  US name bought large amount of AUD and NZD vs USD  ACB selling 0.8990-0.90 in Aussie taken easily; stops above 0.90 cleared

[Abo Abdullah]

Technical Levels

EUR/USD, demand noted at 1.3180 with stops beneath growing larger. Better demand seen ahead of the 1.3150 level. To the topside, offers clustered between 1.3235 and 1.3250 with stops above the mid figure sizeable. 

GBP/USD has decent supply ahead of the 1.56 level, but technicals/sentiment indicate further gains are likely. Stops on the break above with good supply then resting at 1.5640/50. To the downside, demand at 1.5550 with solid bids at 1.5520 and 1.55. Stops through 1.5540 and large below the big figure. 

USD/JPY demand at 98.80, 98.50 and larger from 98.20 to 98.00. Stops beneath the mid figure. Supply at 99.50, 99.80 and heavy pre-100.00. 

AUD/USD has good selling interest from 0.9040 up to 0.9060 with stops resting above the mid figure. Minor demand at 0.8980, larger at 0.8950 and from 0.8920 down to 0.89. Stops from short-term players through 0.8970 and larger sub-0.8950.

[Abo Abdullah]

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Global FX Strategy
FX Daily Planet

[Abo Abdullah]

The EUR is drifting off into some sovereign bids between 1.3190-80 but stops are placed below. Some buying interest noted at 1.3160 in front of Chart support at 1.3140.

[Abo Abdullah]

RBS - GBP/USD trading at long-term resistance

The RBS Research Team analyzes the outlook of the GBP/USD, coupled with the recent consolidation that has gripped the pair.

The GBP/USD has been very sideways for the last 6 months and as we near the top of the range, resistance should appear around 1.5610/1.5750.

“Any push above there should target a move back towards the old support/resistance lines around 1.60 and at this stage we still feel that any rallies will struggle later in this month.”

[Abo Abdullah]

U.S. Dollar Index Strength Suggests Lower Euro and GBP Ahead

Markets gapped on Sunday againts the USD after the U.S. President Barack Obama delayed a military strike against Syria by requesting authorization first from an incredulous Congress. From a technical perspective the wave patterns and direction did not change much. We are bullish on USD, it means we expect weaker majors, such as EUR, GBP, CHF, AUD and even JPY.

The reason is the following Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern on USD Index 4-hour chart which already appears complete after push above the neckline at the end of the last week. This break is pointing for a stronger USD, ideally towards 83.00 where we can see and Head and Shoulder projection measured from head to neckline and then from a breakout point.

Moves following the completed Head and Shoulder pattern are usually very strong so while market is moving higher we do not expect any larger corrective move, maybe only down to 81.80 where broken neckline (resistance) may turn to a support. This will then be ideal scenario for a downtrend continuation on the EURUSD which completed a five wave decline on Friday around 1.3170 but rally from there is only in three waves, so we assume it’s a zig-zag that will find resistance around 1.3250 zone, at former wave (iv).
At the same time we are also observing bearish wave structure on

GBPUSD which is showing a five wave decline in wave 1 followed by a three wave rally, that must then stop at 1.5600 resistance area. Traders who are interested to go short on this pair, we recommend to wait on evidences of a completed wave 2. In other words, wait on confirming price action; impulsive bearish reversal back to the lower side of a corrective channel.

By: Gregor Horvat