== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

مساء الفل

عاجل :: لجنة العلاقات الخارجية بمجلس الشيوخ الأمريكي تصوت لصالح الضربة في سوريا..

مساء الورد يالغالي الله يعينا ويسترنا يارب والله

[Abo Abdullah]

Interbank FX Wire

USD was sold across the board into the 16:00 BST fix
Sovereign offers ahead of 1.32 capped the rally in EUR/USD initially, but fix demand and buying from macro names pushed the pair through the big figure
Offers remain in good size at 1.3220 with stops above
GBP/USD offers resting at 1.5650
Japanese macro funds and US leveraged names noted buyers of USD/JPY on the dip below 99.50; solid bids still resting at 99.20, while offers from 99.80 to 100.00
Middle East accounts seen selling Gold into the NY open
Steady demand for AUD/USD from leveraged accounts; bids building at 0.9150 and 0.9120, while offers at 0.92 and 0.9220
Decent offers ahead of the 0.94 level in USD/CHF with sizeable stops just above
CTAs looking to sell a break below 0.84 in EUR/GBP, but solid bids reported at 0.8420/25 while offers lined up at 0.8480 and large at 0.85

Technical Levels

EUR/USD has minor demand at 1.3180 and better support at 1.3140/50 with stops below. To the topside, supply at 1.3220 with stops through 1.3225 and heavy resistance ahead of 1.3250.

GBP/USD has support at 1.56 with solid demand ahead of 1.5550. Stops noted sub-1.56 and larger beneath the mid figure. Supply decent at 1.5650 with stops building above. Larger selling interest ahead of the 1.57 level.

USD/JPY has solid demand at 99.20 with stops below growing larger. Further support noted at 98.80 and 98.50 with more stops through those levels. Topside, supply still decent ahead of the 100.00 level with huge stops resting above. 100.50 next resistance on a break above.

AUD/USD has smaller support at 0.9150 with better demand at 0.9120 and 0.91. Stops through 0.9140 and sizeable sub-0.91. Supply decent ahead of 0.92 with more selling interest at 0.9220 and 0.9250.

NZD/USD supply at 0.7930 and heavier at 0.7950 with few stops building above there. To the downside, demand building at 0.7880 and larger at 0.7850 with stops below.

[Abo Abdullah]

USDCHF Elliott Wave Forecast - Could Test 1.0000 By 2013 End

USDCHF: Sharp reversal in 2011 from 0.7000 area is impulsive leg, and we know that impulses show direction of a current trend. As such, we think that pair is now bullish for minimum three wave rise; A)-B)-C). In the last few months we have seen a slow and choppy price action in 0.8900-1.0000 range which now seems to be a contracting triangle placed in wave B). We can already count five waves within this pattern so traders must be aware for a push higher into wave C) later this year

[alameen911]

أبو عبدالله ما دام الفرنك طاير فأكيد اليورو راح يسقط ولا ايه رأيك

[Abo Abdullah]

أبو عبدالله ما دام الفرنك طاير فأكيد اليورو راح يسقط ولا ايه رأيك

نعم يالغالي واليورو على المدى المتوسط والطويل المفروض يروح لمناطق 1.2500

[Abo Abdullah]

Hedged Funds lined up to buy USD/JPY aggressively above 100.00

[Abo Abdullah]

Nomura, ANZ, & Barclays - What's Next For Cable

The technical strategy teams at Nomura, Australia and New Zealand Baking Group (ANZ), and Barclays Capital are skeptical about the sustainability of the ongoing rebound in GBP/USD projecting a sell-off to take place ahead of the pair's current range highs. Here are their related technical outlooks:

Nomura: Although trends are positive, major overhead resistance and a bearish Elliott count threaten the GBP rally. The latest uptrend is still occurring below major resistance between 1.5750/5830; this polarity zone is host to key highs/lows dating back to November of last year as well as the 61.8% retrace of the 2013 sell-off.

Barclays: The marginal move above 1.56 turns us neutral as price trades in the middle of a 1.5420 to 1.5750 range. Closer to the range highs, we would be looking to sell again for a return to 1.5420 and medium term, towards 1.51.

ANZ: Despite relatively solid price action over the past week, the underlying bias for frustrating range trading continues. Only a close above 1.5650 would suggest that further downside retracements - within the overall trading range - could be avoided, at least in the interim. A close below 1.5500 is needed to trigger the next slide towards the 1.5250-60 area (interim 50%) if not 1.5000, as the frustrating range trading unfolds.

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Rally runs out of steam ACB offers overhang

After today's stop loss powered pop, we've run out of steam @1.3218
Yesterday's bounce off 200-DMA has prompted tech buying/ CTA stops
Tomorrow's ECB meeting looms large
Buy stops talk in Asia last night if we break above 1.3225
Others say ACB's have more to go 1.3250

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS FX Outlooks

FX Technicals

EURUSD BEARISH
Support is at 1.3103, a break below this would expose 1.3021. Any upside should be limited to resistance at 1.3296.

USDJPY BULLISH
The latest strength reinforces the broader bullish theme. There is potential for more upside to break through resistance at 101.53 and test 103.74. Support is at 97.89 ahead of 96.82.

GBPUSD BULLISH
The recent upside opens the doors to test the strong resistance range at 1.5718/50. Support is at 1.5522 ahead of 1.5423.

USDCHF NEUTRAL
The recovery over the past few sessions has seen the test of resistance at 0.9378. A close above which would extend the trength to 0.9449. Support is at 0.9289 ahead of 0.9237.

AUDUSD BEARISH
With the bearish trending indicators in place, any further recovery will find resistance at 0.9233. The risk is for resumption of downside, with support at 0.9038 ahead of 0.8848.

USDCAD BULLISH
There is an important resistance range at 1.0609/58. With bullish conditions in place, there is scope for more upside to test 1.0804. Support is at 1.0456 ahead of 1.0422.

EURCHF NEUTRAL
Resistance is at 1.2434 ahead of 1.2475. Support is at 1.2314 ahead of 1.2268.

EURGBP BEARISH
The cross is under selling pressure and all evidence suggests more weakness to test the important support at 0.8398. Resistance is at 0.8540.

EURJPY BULLISH
Important resistance range is at 132.74 and 133.80. A close above which would extend the strength. Support is at 130.65 ahead of 129.29.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action

Source: UBS FX Strategy

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Merrill - EUR/USD Squeezes & AUD Shines

Yesterday's squeeze higher in EUR/USD could extend toward 1.3243 before the larger bear trend resumes, with targets seen to the 6m range lows in the 1.2750/1.2650 area, projects Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

However, BofA thinks that the major technical story rightnow is the AUD which should remain the star performer over the next several days.

"Against the USD, EUR, JPY, it has or is poised to complete patterns that point to further AUD gains,' BofA notes.

"AUD/USD above 0.9178 completes a 6-week Head and Shoulders base targeting 0.9407/0.9388, potentially 0.9581. The EUR/AUD break below 1.4443 has completed a month-long Double Top, targeting 1.3957/ 1.3864, while the AUD/JPY break of 90.10 completed a small Double Bottom targeting 92.67/93.66," BofA clarifies.

"HOWEVER, in each instance, AUD gains are ultimately corrective and counter trend. Indeed, we will ultimately look to fade AUD gains, ideally in AUD/USD, for a resumption of its bear trend toward 0.8066/0.794," BofA advises.

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/AUD, & SP500

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/AUD and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Possible a minor reaction in place. The reaction back up to 1.3218 at least fulfilled the minimum criteria for a minor correction even though we think 1.3237/55 would have fitted better. At this stage we cannot confirm the end to the correction but several factors points to it. Below 1.3157 new lows (1.3056-1.3119) however will be confirmed.

USD/JPY: Stands ready to break 100. After a couple of relatively muted however positive days the market should stretch out for the 101.16 – 101.54 area or otherwise we will run out of steam triggering a low 99 downside reaction. Also if a false break above 99.80/85 taking place would argue that downside risk will in the short term be at risk.

EUR/AUD: Confirmed double top. The AUD correction is firing on all cylinders and yesterday’s break of 1.4432 confirmed the double top setting a theoretical target in the low 1.39’s, a target that also corresponds well to the wave 4 reaction low, 1.3860, a common target for a more profound correction. AUDUSD heading next for 0.9275 (possible 0.95ish given the possible inverse head and shoulders pattern). AUDJPY steaming higher with 93.20 in the crosshair.

S&P500: Stronger market than thought. Data landed on the positive side of things and this time the market showed approval. The high session close/big session range display some kind of buyers’ initiative and this makes a 1,661-1,667 test possible or even likely before down.

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Brief - London

[10.15 GMT Sept 5] EUR/USD was under pressure early in the European session but rose back towards 1.3200 as the session neared its midway point. Gamma traders may be the greatest influence on aآ lacklustre market that is intent on sitting things out until ADP and the ECB, and most likely until NFPs have been released. In that respect the presence of 1.3175, 1.3200 and 1.3250 expiries can only compound tight ranges. Higher U.S. yields were in focus but spreads to bunds actually favoured the rally in EUR/USD, as the rise to a 1 ½ year peak for 10 year German yields outstripped USTs. That is though potentially fuel for a more dovish than expected Draghi. Flows negligible. Models sold EUR/JPY. ACB offers again seen in good size 1.3210-20. jeremy.boulton at thomsonreuters com Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

[Abo Abdullah]

U.S. Dollar Clues for Trend Over Next Few Months

[Abo Abdullah]

Interbank FX Wire

Short-covering ahead of the ECB meeting in EUR/USD; ACB and an US fund noted sellers above 1.32 and have more offers resting at 1.3240/50
Profit-taking buying in EUR/GBP; this kept GBP/USD under pressure ahead of the Bank of England rate decision along with real money selling
Momentum players sold EUR/JPY in the early London session, but this was quickly retraced and the pair is now approaching CTA stops 132.05/10
Leveraged names and banks pushed USD/JPY above the 100.00 level, but the pair ran into decent supply at 100.10; large stops resting above up to 100.20
Dips remain well-bid; solid demand at 99.50 and from 99.20 to 99.00, including Japanese importer bids
Swiss names were good sellers of CHF vs EUR and GBP
Eastern Europe names bought EUR/CHF as they covered shorts, but the rally was capped by solid hedge fund offers at 1.2395/00
AUD/USD has stops at 0.9120 with bids resting at 0.91 and 0.9070; offers remain decent ahead of the 0.92 level

Technical Levels

EUR/USD has minor demand at 1.3180 and good support at 1.3140/50 with stops below. To the topside, resistance at 1.3240/50 and larger at 1.3280 with sizeable stops above.
GBP/USD has support at 1.5580 with solid demand ahead of 1.5550. Stops noted sub-1.56 and larger beneath the mid figure. Supply decent at 1.5650 with stops building above. Larger selling interest ahead of the 1.57 level.
USD/JPY has solid demand at 99.20 with stops below growing larger. Further support noted at 98.80 and 98.50 with more stops through those levels. Topside, supply still decent ahead at 100.10 with huge stops resting above. 100.50 next resistance if the pair breaks above there.
AUD/USD has smaller support at 0.9120 with better demand at 0.91. Stops through 0.9120 and sizeable sub-0.91. Supply decent ahead of 0.92 with more selling interest at 0.9220 and 0.9250.
NZD/USD supply at 0.7930 and heavier at 0.7950 with few stops building above there. To the downside, demand at 0.7870 and larger at 0.7850 with stops below.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD