== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%):

EURUSD: 1.3320-1.3335 on the upside, 1.3155-1.3170 on the downside.

AUDUSD: 0.9295-0.9310 on the upside, 0.9155-0.9170 on the downside.

USDJPY: 100.65-100.80 on the upside, 98.90-99.05 on the downside.

GBPUSD: 1.5780-1.5795 on the upside, 1.5530-1.5545 on the downside.

USDCAD: 1.0455-1.0470 on the upside, 1.0300-1.0315 on the downside.

NZDUSD: 0.8085-0.8100 on the upside, 0.7910- 0.7925 on the downside.

EURJPY: 133.10-133.25 on the upside, 130.70-130.85 on the downside.

EURGBP: 0.8475-0.8490 on the upside, 0.8360-0.8375 on the downside.

USDCHF: 0.9425-0.9440 on the upside, 0.9240-0.9255 on the downside.

AUDJPY: 93.55-93.70 on the upside, 91.00-91.15 on the downside.

EURAUD: 1.4455-1.4470 on the upside, 1.4205-1.4220 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - Go Short EUR/USD At 1.3295 Targeting 1.3025

EUR/USD’s bounce off the 50% retracement at 1.3104 has so far taken it to 1.3281, notes Commerzbank.

"The 1.3300 region could also be reached but around it another down leg should be made. We still look for a slide to 1.3020 and then 1.2904. These are the 61.8% and the 78.6% retracements of the move up from July, en route to the 1.2755 July low," CB projects.

"Only an unexpected rise above the August 1.3453 high will allow gains to the 1.3500/20 region. This is not our favoured view and we believe that the currency pair will see another leg lower towards 1.3050/25 instead," CB adds.

In line with this view, CB maintains an active limit order to sell EUR/USD at 1.3295, with a stop at 1.3453, and a target at 1.3025.

[Abo Abdullah]

Corporate and retail selling into 1.5750 in GBPUSD

Strong offers in EURUSD at 1.3280 and also in AUDUSD at .9320

UN holding urgent Syria meeting at 4pm/1600 ET

[Abo Abdullah]

Interbank FX Wire

EUR/USD was supported by sovereign bids resting at 1.3220/30 and climbed higher going into the New York session, driven by EUR-positive flows in the crosses
Offers ahead of 1.3280 capped the move and stops are seen building above
GBP/USD gains were limited in the European session as an Asian sovereign name was seen as on-going seller above 1.57
With the ACB offers cleared in the NY session, Cable rose up to 1.5745, ahead of supply from corporate names and specs
Macro and model funds were noted buyers of USD/JPY, but selling interest from exporters and option players kept gains in check ahead of the 100.50 barrier option
Bids are already building at 99.80 and 100.00
AUD/USD was sold by macro funds at 0.93, but well absorbed
Real money accounts were good buyers above the big figure and specs are now targeting a test of the 0.9350 level
NZD/USD stops above 0.8065 cleared, offers next at 0.81
US leveraged funds were selling EUR/GBP, but ran into solid demand at 0.8420; stops building again beneath the big figure
EUR/JPY saw good buying from model funds and leveraged accounts; CTA stops 133.05/10 cleared
Bids building at 132.50 and stops noted at 132.30
USD/CAD has corporate bids at 1.0315/20; stops through 1.0290
AUD/JPY poised to close above the 93.00 level; strong technical signal

Technical Levels:

EUR/USD has support at 1.3220 and better at 1.3180 with stops below both levels. To the topside, resistance seen at 1.3280 up to 1.33 and heavy ahead of the 1.34 level.

GBP/USD support lying at 1.5680 and 1.5620-30 with stops accumulating sub-1.5650. Resistance lined up at 1.5745/50 with a close above paving the way for a 1.60 test.

USD/JPY support at 99.75, 99.50 and larger at 99.20. Stops through 99.50 and larger beneath the big figure. Resistance at 100.50 and heavy ahead of 101.50.

AUD/USD has support at 0.9240; better at 0.9220 and 0.9180 with stops beneath these levels. 0.93 next hurdle while 0.9340-50 is major technical resistance.

NZD/USD support lying at 0.8010 and 0.7960 with stops through 0.7990 and sub-0.7950. Topside, decent resistance at 0.81 and then 0.8160. Stops above the big

[Abo Abdullah]

Deutsche Asia Spot Trading Morning Report

EUR
Open 1.3268 Support 1.3200/30 Resistance 1.3280/1.3300

Euro very much sidelined overnight as it consolidates the recent recovery off the lows, the markets focus moving away from Euro once again to higher beta currencies and cross-yen.
It feels like Euro will return to its benign ways with most action coming from Euro crosses. Support coming EURJPY demand on the back of the rosier global outlook, and resistance from traditional risk-on short Euro trades such as EURAUD selling. Though overall given the markets tendency to be short Euro, the positive risk sentiment should keep Euro generally supported as the topside will remain the path of least resistance.

AUD
Open 0.9310 Support 0.9270 Resistance 0.9340

We remain better sellers in the orderbook throughout in AUD but the move is very determined
AUDJPY should stay above 92.50 now and AUD should continue to benefit in the crosses from Tapering 'light' and the RBA seemingly on hold
Pretty obvious but keep buying AUD on dips

JPY
Open 100.40 Support 100.00 99.20 Resistance 101.50-55
Open 133.20 Support 132.70 132.20 Resistance 133.80 135.00

USDJPY is finally opening on 100s in Asia time. It was more like old Risk-on move on Syria talk progress.
Book-wise; Long-liquidation int below high 99s. Net mixed on upside with light offers and light short-covering int.
I added longs mainly cross-JPY yesterday on break of EURJPY lvl. I favour cross-JPY as this is mixture of risk-on and JPY selling by Japanese government mulling about extra economic measure on possible sales tax hike. Positioning wise, local retails are not that long cross-JPY, a little biased to even short in some of cross-JPY at mom. USDJPY, market has some offers at 100.50, and short-covering int above.

NZD
Open 0.8060 Support 0.8035 Resistance 0.8100

Big night for risk and Kiwi did its part in the rally
Kiwi remains well bid on dips
RBNZ tomorrow is the clear focus and while they will be concerned about the level of the TWI, there is not a lot they can do about it
Expect Kiwi to just underperform a tad heading into the statement, and if no bombshells are dropped, lost ground will be made up quickly

CAD
Open 1.0350 Support 1.0330 Resistance 1.0430

My commentary will not be much different from yesterday as our orderbook is still bid for USDCAD but we keep getting filled
Some more unwinding of CAD shorts to unfold in coming sessions should keep the downside momentum in tact

GBP
Open 1.5734 Support 1.5685 Resistance 1.5745 1.5800

Cable grinds higher overnight on the back of the better RICS data albeit quite subdued managing a minor new high for this recovery.
It feels like we have already got a large chunk of the risk recovery in the past 48 hours and gains will be a little slower from here, this will see cable remain buoyed and I think it will steadily creep towards 1.5800 this week. UK employment data due tonight.

CHF
Open 1.2403 Support 1.2300/1.2330 Resistance 1.2435
Open 0.9347 Support 0.9270/0.9310 Resistance 0.9380/.9450

USDCHF saw a fair bit of model capitulation of longs on the break of .9350/40 moving lower to test key support @ .9310. We have bounced squarely with the bounce in risk sentiment and will look for action over 0.9380 to signal a reversal of fortune for USDCHF.
The move back higher in 2y rates and US equities filling the “Syria” gap towards 1681 are all positive for the short CHF trades…at the right lvls.

[Abo Abdullah]

JPM Asia Pac Morning Commentary

USDJPY

The world seems to be in a better situation now with Risk sentiment getting the center of focus. Syria situation seeing some compromise, US stocks breaking through some good tech levels and US yields still trading firmly. Continue maintaining the bull stance with interest to buy on dips towards 100.00-10 zone now. Hearing there are less orders now from exporters as they will be pulling some offers out and see how the market pans out. July high of 100.79 is the next level to target. I would be taking profit once Nikkei start hitting 15000, no matter where the USDJPY will be at that time. But until then keep longs and add more on dips no reason yet to counter-sell this .

EUR

The pair was well contained within the recent 1.3230/80 range despite the early demand for EURJPY which was well countered by EUR-high beta supply. The above range bound should well be respected for the day but am biased to play it from short side thus still selling into the stop loss price action with intraday stop above 1.3305 is favored. I have closed EURGBP shorts and reinstated short EURAUD yday post NAB biz confidence and will look to run it targeting 1.4200.

GBP

GbpUsd traded higher, it traded 1.5745 where its recent high is. I would like to buy on dips, but, I don’t like to rush to buy top side. EurGbp is 15 pips lower from highest of Asian session. Sell on rally this cross, but, resistance level is slightly high. And short EurGbp position remains, so, it will be difficult to go through 0.8390 supports immediately. Counter trade will be working around 0.8390 and 0.8460 level. Current level is almost in the middle of the range.

CHF

EurChf and UsdChf moved higher. Both are driven by EurJpy, UsdJpy, and well performed stocks. EurChf trend line resistance is 1.2415 , but, ChfJpy level is pretty much. Therefore, Eurchf and Usdchf will move EurJpy and UsdJpy’s movement; even market has offers on top side. Usdchf will stay in the range 0.9330 and 0.9370 , EurChf range will be base 1.2365 and watch up side level 1.2415.

CAD

The pair finally found first support ahead of 100 DMA at 1.0334 but the clear close below the daily cloud bottom at 1.0373 intensified the vulnerability on the down side in coming session with concern over military action against Syria continuing to ease. Thus will respect 1.0330-70 range bound and will try it from short side. It will be lagging the move to AUD as the AUDCAD breaking back the previous high and gaining momentum thus will be sidelined in our time zone and will sell those rallies towards 70.

[Abo Abdullah]

Obama giving speech at 0100GMT

Market expectations for how the Syria vote and issue if going to play out:

A ‘No’ vote from Congress on US military intervention, but there is a (small) risk Obama goes ahead anyway

If he does go ahead, it will be small, limited

Likelihood is he will embrace the diplomatic solution instead

[Abo Abdullah]

Watch Obama’s speech – live link

http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/foreign-policy/syria

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks

FX Technicals

EURUSD BEARISH
The pair bounced from the support at 1.3103. Resistance is at 1.3319. With the MACD below its zero line potential is for resumption of downside.

USDJPY
BULLISH The pair is moving higher and there is potential for more upside to break through resistance at 101.53 and test 103.74. Support is at 98.54.

GBPUSD BULLISH
The pair is moving higher approaching the significant resistance at 1.5750. A closing break above this would be further positive. Support is at 1.5686 ahead of 1.5565.

USDCHF NEUTRAL
Support at 0.9301, held the recent sharp sell-off. A closing break below this would further extend its weakness towards 0.9265. Resistance is at 0.9394 ahead of 0.9456.

AUDUSD NEUTRAL
There is a strong resistance at 0.9320. A move above this would indicate scope for further strength towards 0.9431. Support is at 0.9217 ahead of 0.9116.

USDCAD NEUTRAL
There is a strong support at 1.0241. Resistance is at 1.0380 ahead of 1.0436.

EURCHF NEUTRAL
Resistance is at 1.2434 ahead of 1.2475. Support is at 1.2326 ahead of 1.2268.

EURGBP BEARISH
Having tested the strong support at 0.8397, the immediate risk appears for a short-term recovery to unwind the sharp sell-off. Resistance is at 0.8492 Support is at 0.8392 ahead of 0.8285.

EURJPY BULLISH
Important resistance is at 133.80. A close above which would extend the strength. Support is at 131.92 ahead of 129.29
.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action

Source: UBS FX Strategy

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, Sterling, AUD/USD, EUR/JPY & SP500

EUR/USD: Glued at 21day equilibrium. The high end of “the Cloud” and the 21day "Base line" keeps capping. Over 1.3299 is needed to start seeing the Aug-Sep decline as either a more complex trend lower (which could end up really powerful) or as a mere correction. Until then the picture remains cautiously tilted to the downside from here.

GBP: Must be monitored closely. The sterling index is close to its correction target (with GBP/USD & EUR/GBP having their respective key points at 1.5753 and 0.8350-0.8400) so the near term development must be monitored very closely. Sterling should given the stretched conditions be very sensitive to any kind of negative surprises.

AUD/USD: Testing resistance. Another winner added yesterday brought the pair into a test of short-term resistance at 0.9320-45. Some selling has emerged there this morning, but near-term players shortening up here now face support at yesterday's midbody point of 0.9270 and at 0.9234. Above 0.9350 would be a short-term stretch, but if spending a little time up here this stretch would soon fade and in a bigger picture a potential "Double-bottom" would set a fair extended target near 0.96.

EUR/JPY: Headed into the May peak (133.82). A solid winner was added yesterday as the move through prior peaks at 132.42 & 132.75 drew above average volumes. The high session close shows demand and all the short-term "Ichimoku tools” are in positive positions. This puts the May high of 133.82 in harm’s way (but it should also be noted that immediate extension beyond this level would also bring a short-term stretch to consider). Support likely around those prior peaks that were violated yesterday.

S&P 500: Extended correction. No signs of the outlined sellers yesterday as the market steamed on past the estimated correction target, 1667. The behaviour is annoying (arguing for a second corrective leg lower that is) but not unusual after a possible peak/bottom. The first reaction (wave b or 2) often moves deep into the preceding wave’s territory commonly reaching the 78,6% Fibo correction point so let’s see whether we can attract a few offers toward 1688.

[Abo Abdullah]

Deutsche Bank Spot Desk

Spot Trading Morning Report

EUR (Michael Ford)

Open 1.3250 Support 1.3190/1.3140 Resistance 1.3300/1.3415
Euro at the mercy of Eurjpy at the moment as the cross looks set to take out the years highs soon. Macros were buying off the lows yesterday but otherwise flows continue to be light. Some stress still lies above 1.33 in the orderbook but with vol so low i would be surprised to see a big move today.
Flat Eurusd but running long Eurjpy, waiting to see if we can change from risk on to a Usd driven market. Until then stay nimble and sell Eurusd up at 1.3320 if we see it.

GBP (Michael Waugh Bacchus)

Open 1.5725 Support 1.5575 (21 dma) Resistance 1.5738 ( 200 dma) / 1.5782 (1.6381-1.4814)
Institutional investors continue to buy sterling crosses. Order book has a bid bias.
Unemployment rate todays big data release , with DB forecast slightly below consensus at 7.7 pct.
I will run eurgbp shorts into the release and would be encouraged to add if treasuries get hit on a low read, good luck. .

CHF (Christoph Milewski)

Open 1.2403/05 Support 1.2380/1.2330 Resistance 1.2420/1.2460
Open 0.9360/62 Support 0.9310/ 0.9270 Resistance 0.9380/0.9450
The x remains bid on the back of rather less concerns about the situation in syria, we look to buy dips down to 1,2380 as long as this is not changing
USDCHF seems to go nowhere, expect the 0,9320/0.9390 range to prevail for today

AUD (Cameron McKay)

Open 0.9285 Support .9140 .9070 Resistance 9320
AUDUSD finally stalls, around 9300. Feels closer to fair value here now, the good news recently priced and positioning much more balanced.
Labor force tonight – will be interesting, and couple with RBNZ should provide some AUDNZD ‘next move’ momentum.
Still sitting in the more neutral camp here, looking for impetus for the next leg in AUD. Through 9320 suspect we will see further SL buying on the tech break. Support now back at .9220 intraday. If we get some equity weakness, AUD and AUDJPY will give up some of this fluffy move higher.

NZD (Cameron McKay)

Open 0.8045 Support 0.7920 Resistance 8150
I don’t expect too much out of RBNZ. But the statement will be interesting to see how the LVR changes impact their growth forecasts.
Suspect towards .8100/50 NZD should tire, but through 8200 and the base will look firmly in place.
I am square NZD, don’t want to chase it up here but suspect dips will remain shallow. AUDNZD will be interesting tonight with AUS labor force data also.

JPY (Peter Redston)

Open 100.30 Support 100.00 99.20 Resistance 101.50-55
Open 133.00 Support 132.70 132.20 Resistance 133.80 135.00

USDJPY remains well supported overnight despite exporter supply continuing to cap rallies as Japanese policy makers continue to ramp up rhetoric.
Book-wise; Long-liquidation int below high 99s. Net mixed on upside with light offers and light short-covering int, while positioning reports suggest that all sectors of the market from macros to retail are significantly underinvested in this trade despite the fundamental drivers.
I remain long USDJPY, CHFJPY and Nikkei with many JPY crosses breaking higher given the risk positive environment, likelihood of a taper light from the Fed and reduced tensions in the middle east. 101.55 remains the key topside pivot.

CAD (Peter Redston)
Open 1.0355 Support 1.0330 Resistance 1.0430
Similar story in USDCAD with it failing to participate too much in the wider risk rally. Dips continue to find resting demand while the collapse in oil from the reduced Syria tensions only managed to offset the impact from an improved risk outlook.
I remain long USDCAD through medium term structures, though doubt we will see too many fire works over coming sessions and capital can likely be better utilized elsewhere..

[Abo Abdullah]

JP Morgan London G10 Desk Daily Commentary

EUR

I’m running low on inspiration today, as sadly yesterdays range prediction proved easily correct. Hard to see much different today, and I maintain a core short eurusd position, and a short in eur/gbp. I took the aud leg of euraud off yesterday as it feels like aud has reached its pivot, and I think straight euro shorts are more appealing over the next few days as I feel certain the usd will be in demand into the fomc. 1.3220 And 1.3320 are the key levels to watch for acceleration, and until we see one of those yield I will sit with what I have…

GBP

Quietly bid continues to summarise all things sterling for now. However the resistance levels (1.5755 and 0.8390) are holding so any extension remains elusive. Today's jobless data will provide further insight into the extent of the UK's growth recovery and I expect a better number to see cable break the topside level. Conversely, any disappointment and we are back in the range.

JPY

With a diplomatic solution to Syria now on the US radar, the Japanese currency has been very much on the back foot for the past 24 hours. Both USD JPY and EUR JPY have extended further than I expected and price action remains constructive. So where next? A buy on dips strategy appears the best approach as I expect 99.50 to hold any dips for now. Place stops at 99.20. EUR JPY trades in similar fashion with 132.15-20 the support that I expect to hold on the day.

CHF

This market appears to have to decided that all is well in the middle east and the world is a lovely place once more. Neither EURCHF nor USDCHF batted an eyelid during Obama’s speech yesterday urging the public to support potential military action on Syria, surprising turn given what we saw during Friday’s speech and a demonstration of just how fickle this market can be at times. USDCHF brushed off the model selling pressure early yesterday to tip-toe its way higher, but spent much of the afternoon gyrating around the 200 DMA at 0.9348. I will look to play the broader 0.9300/20 -0.9400 range to hold on the day, with a bias to buy dips keeping a 0.9280 stop. EURCHF mustered a strong close last night, having broken the top of the daily cloud and the important 1.2400 pivot, but still needs to overcome trendline resistance at 1.2415 before we can start talking about the July highs at 1.2460. I feel there is always the lingering potential for a quick slide on the back of any military action, whereas the move up is going to be much more laboured and grinding, and for that reason I am small short cutting on the day through 20. Initial support is at 1.2370/80 ahead of 1.2340.

AUD

The feel good factor continues to support the AUD and buying dips is still the way to go, although the move to 0.9320 has met my initial target. Ideally, we would like a pullback to the 0.9230/50 area to get set again. Expect to still find offers in the 0.9320/50 window. Watch tonight’s unemployment release for further direction.

NZD

RBNZ to leave rates at 2.5% tonight, with no rate changes forecast for the rest of the year still. Yet again watch for the statement from Wheeler. Will be an interesting statement with a few things for him to juggle this month. With the announcement last month of LVR restrictions, it remains to be seen how this impacts the RBNZ’s thinking, if indeed it impacts them at all. The economy that is clearly on an upward path, so keep an eye on rate projections for 2014. All should hopefully become a little clearer after tonight.

CAD

looked to have played out almost exactly to plan yesterday before strong support by way of the 100 DMA at 1.0330 put a halt to the slide. Somewhat disappointing to see us all the way back up at 1.0360 once more this morning, although my view is unchanged for the time being a I will continue to sell rallies, adding through 1.0330 with a stop on the day above 1.0400.

[Abo Abdullah]

Real money is a noted buyer of GBP/USD now in good size

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD some stops 1.3280/90 offers ahead of 1.3300 then stops 1.3305/10, steady sellers above 1.3320, light stops below 1.3240 good bids 1.3230/35

[Abo Abdullah]

Interbank FX Wire

EUR/USD flows were again light; sovereign offers at 1.3280 are capping the upside; stops building above
A hedge fund was good buyer of GBP/USD ahead of the Employment data release
Barrier at 1.58 and stops above cleared; macros noted buyers on the dips
USD/JPY has sizeable stops through 99.90 with bids noted at 99.80 and 99.50
Offers at 100.50-60 with banks seeing stops from 100.65 to 100.75
AUD/USD capped by sizeable offers at 0.9320 from prime brokers
EUR/JPY stops from CTAs through 132.45
Real money offers noted at 0.8440/50 in EUR/GBP

Technical Levels

EUR/USD has support at 1.3220 and better at 1.3180 with stops below both levels. To the topside, resistance seen at 1.3280 up to 1.33 and heavy ahead of the 1.34 level.

GBP/USD support lying at 1.5750 and 1.57 with stops accumulating beneath the big figure. Resistance lined up at 1.5850 with more stops above.

USD/JPY support at 100.10, 99.80 and larger at 99.50. Stops through 99.90 and larger beneath the mid figure. Resistance at 100.80 and heavy ahead of 101.00.

AUD/USD has support at 0.9280; better at 0.9240 and 0.9220 with stops beneath these levels. 0.9320 next hurdle while 0.9340-50 is major technical resistance.

NZD/USD support lying at 0.8010 and 0.7960 with stops through 0.7990 and sub-0.7950. Topside, decent resistance at 0.81 and then 0.8160. Stops above the big figure.