== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Initial jobless claims fell below 300K for the first time since 2007

[Abo Abdullah]

Macro names selling EUR above 1.3280, more bids into 1.3250 but stops lined up under 1.3240 in good size.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR also getting hit in the crosses as EURJPY is steadily sold while EUR/GBP approaches stops under .8380 where momentum funds are looking to sell as well

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Short term TOP Danger

Multiple tries at cracking 1.3325/45 res fail & pair lower on the day
Claims data & EUR/JPY sales a double whammy for EUR/USD
Mkt axed to sell, corp & Asian sellers touted 1.3300/15
RSI rolls over, USD yield advantage grows & price <21 DMA added weights
Below 1.3220/30 (10 DMA, Sep 10 low) like pain for recent longs
If cleared 200 DMA & Sep low eyed, Chart: http://link.reuters.com/ryt92v

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD wave-5 target of 1.3328/35 was satisfied with yesterday’s rally to 1.3325, notes Nomura.

"Now 5 clean waves are in place and wave-1 = wave-5. Momentum diverged bearishly at the new high confirming that a small correction is underway. This wave-(2) correction targets the area of the previous 4th wave consolidation between 1.3282/3243," Nomura clarifies.

"If this interpretation is correct then there is a good buying opportunity in this pullback zone because once this correction is complete wave-(3) will commence and projects a move at least equal to the 220pip rally of the last week," Nomura adds.

In USD/JPY, Nomura notes that the sell-off commenced right from the wave-D target at 100.59 (100.61 high).

"Wave-E down is now unfolding and the down trade so far is supportive of the idea as it is firmly impulsive. The decline is expected to be and a-b-c sharp 3-wave move that will carry prices to 97.08. On September 18th (FED Day) the 97.08 target and triangle uptrend align so we will look for a continuation of this new downtrend over the next week," Nomura projects.

"S/t, prices are clearing support of a bearish rising wedge and the next key downside pivot is 98.54," Nomura adds.

[Abo Abdullah]

Macro funds selling into the AUD/USD rally

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank Holds EUR/USD Short From 1.3295; Will Add At 1.3378

Commerzbank maintains its technical technical tactical short EUR/USD trade from 1.3295, with a stop at 1.3453, and a target at 1.3050. CB now plans to add to this short on a further bounce into 1.3378.

"EUR/USD’s bounce off the 50% retracement of the July-to- August rally at 1.3104 has so far taken it to 1.3320 where the 61.8% retracement of the August-to-September decline can be seen. The Intraday charts are looking more positive and we are less convinced that we will see failure here, Indeed they are currently indicating that we should allow for an extension to the 1.3378/78.6% retracement and even the 1.3453 August high," CB outlines its current bias on the pair.

"This should continue to hold and we still look for a slide to 1.3020 and then 1.2904. These are the 61.8% and the 78.6% retracements of the move up from July, en route to the 1.2755 July low. Only an unexpected rise above the August 1.3453 high will allow gains to the 1.3500/20 region. This is not our favoured view and we believe that the currency pair will see another leg lower towards 1.3050/25 instead," CB adds.

[Abo Abdullah]

Interbank FX Wire

EUR/USD rallied to 1.3320 after the Jobless Claims release on the back of broad USD selling from directional funds
Asian supply at 1.3320/25 capped the upside throughout the sessions; dealers note stops building above 1.3330
Bids seen at 1.3280 with stops resting beneath
GBP/USD buying from specs was not enough to take out the barrier option at 1.5850; option players and leveraged names sellers ahead
USD/JPY was sold by US hedge funds and short-term specs, but solid bids from Japanese importers capped the downside and kept stops sub-99.00 intact
Banks note some stops from stale shorts around 99.55; offers lined up at 99.80 with larger stops seen above
AUD/USD was caught within a tight range; talk of hedge funds bids ahead of 0.9220 supported the pair, but macro funds were noted sellers and have offers at 0.9280/90
To the downside, sizeable stops through 0.9220, while topside has stops accumulating above the big figure through 0.9310
NZD/USD was sold ahead of key technical resistance at 0.8160, but remains very well bid; bids now at 0.8120 and 0.81 with stops building below the big figure

Technical Levels:

EUR/USD has minor support at 1.3280, stronger at 1.3230 and 1.3180. Stops are building sub-1.3250 and through 1.3220. Topside, resistance at 1.3350 and heavy at 1.34.

GBP/USD support lying at 1.5760, better at 1.5720 and 1.5680. Stops through 1.5740 and beneath 1.57. Resistance seen at 1.5850 and pre-1.59.

USD/JPY has support at 99.00, with 98.60 now seen as major technical level. Stops below 99.20 and larger beneath the big figure. Topside, resistance at 99.50, 99.80 and heavy at 100.40/50. Stops above 99.80 and in better size above 100.10.

AUD/USD has major support at 0.9180 and 0.9120. Stops sub-0.92 through 0.9190. Resistance at 0.93 and heavy at 0.9350 with large stops above.

NZD/USD support resting at 0.8080 and 0.8040. Resistance heavy at 0.8220.

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Inside day - Consolidation in Asia likely

An inside day - trades around 1.3278 - 50% of Aug/Sep fall
Ma's are basing, momentum studies & Bolli's neutral
Conflicting signals suggest further consolidationآ
NY 1.3256/1.3325 range initial sup/res
Expect choppy conditions into next week's FOMC

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Dr_hodhod]

ياحبيبي جمعة مباركة عليك وعلى كل متابع هنا معاك بإذن الله . . .

انا اليوم فاضي ولاتوجد صفقات حاليا بالامس قمت ببيع الاسترليني 5802 و 5815 و 5825 وتم الخروج منها كلها 5808.

كذلك بيع الداو 15333 وتم الخروج 15301.

حاليا نحن على اتفاقنا بانتظار الاسترليني قرب 5870 (متوسط هههههه)

الاغلاق فوق 5900 وقف خسارة لي . الهدف 1.555555555555 بإذن الله .

بالتوفيق ياشعلة نشاط المتداول. . .

[Abo Abdullah]

ياحبيبي جمعة مباركة عليك وعلى كل متابع هنا معاك بإذن الله . . .

انا اليوم فاضي ولاتوجد صفقات حاليا بالامس قمت ببيع الاسترليني 5802 و 5815 و 5825 وتم الخروج منها كلها 5808.

كذلك بيع الداو 15333 وتم الخروج 15301.

حاليا نحن على اتفاقنا بانتظار الاسترليني قرب 5870 (متوسط هههههه)

الاغلاق فوق 5900 وقف خسارة لي . الهدف 1.555555555555 بإذن الله .

بالتوفيق ياشعلة نشاط المتداول. . .

جمعه مباركه يالغالي عليك وعلى الجميع ان شاء الله , والحمد لله انت اليوم

فاضي لان انا اليوم طالع للبحر بعد قليل هههههه , صفقه حلوه للداو

و الاسترليني اتفقنا ان شاء الله البيع من هذه النقطه مع التأمين على الصفقه

بعد الدخول وبالنسبه للهدف يمكن نسيت تضيف بعد خمستين هههههه ,

اليورو انا راح اطلع منه اذا وصل اليوم 3210 والاسترالي كما هو

عند 9180 والكيوي ان متعلق فيه وراح اشوفله حل بعدين لاني

احاول ان اصفي جميع الصفقات قبل اخبار التيسير لاني غالبا الاسبوع الجاي

راح اكون متفرج لحد ما اشوف تأثير الاخبار وبيومين بعدها , والله المستعان

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks

FX Technicals

EURUSD NEUTRAL
Resistance is at 1.3325, a break above which would extend the recent strength
to 1.3452. Support is at 1.3215, a decline through which would open the way to
the critical 1.3103.

USDJPY BULLISH Any downside should be limited as bullish conditions persist. Strong support is at
98.27. Resistance is at 101.53 ahead of 103.74.

GBPUSD BULLISH Resistance is at 1.5879, a break above which would open 1.6011. Support is at
1.5683 ahead of 1.5586.

USDCHF NEUTRAL Support at 0.9265, a breach of which would trigger a deeper sell-off to 0.9147.
Resistance is at 0.9371 ahead of 0.9456.

AUDUSD NEUTRAL Support focus is at 0.9178, a break below which would extend the weakness to
0.9069. Resistance is at 0.9354 ahead of 0.9510.

USDCAD NEUTRAL There is a strong support at 1.0241, a close below which would be negative.
Resistance is at 1.0365 ahead of 1.0406.

EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2434 ahead of 1.2475. Support is at 1.2326 ahead of 1.2268.

EURGBP BEARISH
Having tested the strong support at 0.8397, the immediate risk appears for a
short-term recovery to unwind the sharp sell-off. Resistance is at 0.8486.
Support is at 0.8383 ahead of 0.8285.

EURJPY BULLISH Important resistance is at 133.80. A close above which would extend the
strength to 138.49. Support is at 131.73 ahead of 129.91.
*
NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation
of price action

Source: UBS FX Strategy

[Abo Abdullah]

Deutsche Bank Spot Trading Morning Report

EUR (Michael Ford)

Open 1.3275 Support 1.3250 1.3190 Resistance 1.3325 1.3415
EURUSD continues to chop up the market, making one good attempt to the downside after the US jobless claims data only to see the market get caught as we quickly turn back around printing a high of 1.3325
UST yields higher overnight weighing on EURUSD as we walk in - (Nikkei)--President Barack Obama is set to name former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers as the next chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, sources told The Nikkei on Thursday.
US Retail sales the highlight today
Trying to stay light and nimble at moment, feels like we are starting to top here but better buying interest remains below and vol still to low to break out at moment. Range trade until the FED next week.

GBP (Michael Waugh Bacchus)

Open 1.5790 Support 1.5739 (200 wma) Resistance 1.5905 (channel top)
Ranges fairly muted over the last 24 hours as was our flow. Order book dynamics have changed a tad , in so much as we have picked up more stops top side cbl and inherited bids down side eurgbp.
Position wise i remain long cbl and short eurgbp albeit i have lightened eurgbp with a view of adding if/when a break of 0.8380 is confirmed, good luck..

CHF (Christoph Milewski)

Open 1.2384/86 Support 1.2350/1.2320 Resistance 1.2420/1.2460
Open 0.9329/31 Support 0.9270/0.9240 Resistance 0.9340/0.9410

The x is still prisoned in well known 1,2330/1,2410 range, whereby we prefer a break to the upside, 1.2410/20 is the level to watch here, a break would open up the way for a test of 1,2480
Also usdchf is back in range after it looked like we will see a firmer test of the downside yesterday, expect no real break out for today but will watch the developments in eurusd for further clues
Producer and import prices out at 8.15 expected 0.2% after 0.0% mom and 0.4% after 0.5% yoy

AUD (Cameron McKay)

Open 0.9240 Support .9220 .9140 .9070 Resistance 9350
AUD resilient still, considering price action in metals. Pretty tight ranges in most things, seems AUD very comfortable 92-93 until we get some clearer direction.
AUDNZD tops, and trades very heavy, post RBNZ and employment mix, positioning was much lighter post the RBA change in tone, and now suspect the cross will remain a sell on rallies to 1.1420.
Have sold AUD yesterday 9250, risking back through 9300/20 – shorter term reversal of some of the recent AUD euphoria (weaker data and EM rally finally run out of steam). Not much joy yet however. Needs to get below 92, and will consider adding through there..

NZD (Cameron McKay)

Open 0.8110 Support 0.7920 Resistance 8165 .8186 .8350
NZD trying to roll over, this .8160/80 level remains interesting. Would not get long until a close above. Still seems to be buy on dips however and have some support .8080.
RBNZ statement catches up to the market pricing, more hawkish and bringing forward its hikes into H1 next year.
Some interesting resistance here in the .8165 level (200 day ma .8186). But if we grind through this it opens up .8350.
AUDNZD will remain heavy, a lot of positioning was covered post RBA, and now market commitment to trade should increase.

JPY (Peter Redston)

Open 99.85 Support 99.20 98.50 Resistance 100.62 101.50-55
Open 132.50 Support 132.00 130.50 Resistance 133.80 135.00
USDJPY off the lows overnight following a pair of Nikkei headlines first suggesting corp taxes are likely to be cut next year, followed later by the Nikkei’s suggestion that the Summers is likely to be nominated for Fed Gov after the FOMC meeting next week.
While I’m somewhat skeptical about the Summers headline, the corp tax cuts should help to underpin equities while JIJI reports that Abe’s cabinet support has increased further to 61.3%.
Order books are fairly light, expect exporter supply to continue on rallies, while 101.55 remains the next key topside pivot.
I remain long USDJPY cash and options as well as Nikkei although have hedged some with USDCHF in case tensions in Syria escalate further. US retail sales the focus later..

CAD (Peter Redston)
Open 1.0340 Support 1.0300 then 1.0280 Resistance 1.0350
USDCAD remains dull overnight, although flows are gradually changing with macros and real money beginning to buy following a week of deleveraging.
Order books reflect the wider lack of interest and while I remain long through medium term structures, there are better places to employ capital at this stage.