== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Oil Spike

[Abo Abdullah]

Rumors circling that Spain may will get a downgrade soon

USD/JPY - decent buying from Japanese accounts around 99.80 earlier

EUR/USD higher as stops leveraged players above 1.28 got triggered; offers at 1.2850/60 and heavy at 1.2900

EUR/GBP - bids at 0.8570, 0.8550 and larger at 0.8520/30; sell stops at 0.8540; offers at 0.8650, 0.8670 and heavy ahead of the 0.87 level

EUR/CHF - buying the dips the preferred strategy; demand noted at 1.24 and in good amount at 1.2370 with sell stops accumulating sub-1.2350; to the topside, there are offers at 1.2470 and in better size at 1.25 with sizeable buy stops above

USD/CAD - bids at 1.05, 1.0470 and corporate demand noted at 1.0450; sell stops at 1.0440; offers at 1.0550, 1.0580 and heavy around 1.0600

USD/CHF - bids at 0.9650, 0.9620 and larger at 0.96 with stops building beneath the big figure; offers noted at 0.9740/50 and ahead of the 0.98 level

GBP/USD - offers from Asian acconts noted at 1.4925

NZD/USD - plenty of supply ahead of the 0.79 level, but buy stops may attract later; bids building at 0.7820, 0.78 and larger at 0.7770

[Abo Abdullah]

EU weekly chart gives perspective

Decline looks likely to break below Apr 4 low at 1.2745 very soon
If break below - next key area of support will be at 1.267
Weekly chart shows this rough area has seen many turns since 2010
Long overdue bounce can be expected from that structural support area

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS Daily FX Report

FX Technicals

EURUSD BEARISH

Yesterday the pair closed below the key support at 1.2797. Next support focus is at 1.2663. Resistance is at 1.2898.

USDJPY BULLISH

Focus is on further upside, with immediate resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at 103.74. Support is at 99.26.

GBPUSD BEARISH

The pair tested the key support 1.4832. A closing break below this would be negative, opening 1.4646. Resistance is at 1.4981.

USDCHF BULLISH

Our resistance focus is at the significant 0.9839. Downside should be limited with support is at 0.9626.

AUDUSD BEARISH

With the bear trend intact focus is on the support at 0.8771 ahead of 0.8545. Interim support is at 0.9037. Resistance stand at 0.9201.

USDCAD BULLISH

With the bull trend intact focus is on the initial resistance at 1.0609. A move above this would open 1.0658 ahead of 1.0804. Support is at 1.0512.

EURCHF NEUTRAL

Critical resistance is at 1.2485. A closing break above this would be positive, opening 1.2650. Downside should be limited, with support at 1.2371.

EURGBP BULLISH

There is a strong resistance at 0.8656, which was tested yesterday. With the momentum tools crossing higher, a closing break above this would trigger further upside. Support is at 0.8563 ahead of 0.8469.

EURJPY BULLISH

Downside should be limited, and we expect the support at 128.04 to hold. Resistance is at 131.12 ahead of the key 133.80.

Source: UBS FX Strategy

[Abo Abdullah]

US Market Report

EUR/USD
•Asian reserve managers noted buyers
• Small leveraged funds got squeezed as the pair rallied above 1.28
•However, specs still keen to sell the pair; sentiment negative
•Bids at 1.2780 and at 1.2750/60
•Talk of a barrier option at 1.27 with bids ahead
•Sell stops large sub-1.2740; more seen beneath 1.27
•Offers at 1.2840/50 and heavy at 1.29
•Buy stops at 1.2860 and larger above 1.29

GBP/USD
•Asian and Mid-East names noted sellers
•Bulls need a rally above 1.50 to trigger a meaningful short squeeze
•Bears in control for now; sentiment negative
•Bids at 1.4850, 1.4820 and ahead of the 1.48 barrier option
•Sell stops noted sub-1.48 in good size
•Offers at 1.4950, 1.4970 and large at the big figure
•Buy stops at 1.4990 and 1.5010

USD/JPY
•Leveraged players covered their long position
•Stops in good size seen triggered on the move down to 99.78
•Japanese accounts were keen to buy the dips
•Sentiment positive overall
•Bids building again at 99.80
•More from Japanese accounts at 99.50 and in decent size at 99.20
•Stops sub-99.50 and large beneath 99.20
•Offers lining up at 100.80, 101.30 and 101.50
•Buy stops 101.10/20 and large above 101.50 and 102.00

AUD/USD
•Driven higher by short covering and stops run
•Fundamentals and long-term sentiment remain negative
•However, short-term sentiment shows risk of further squeeze present
•Bids at 0.9130 and 0.9080
•Demand in good size at 0.9050 and ahead of the 0.90 barrier option
•Sell stops seen at 0.9120 (including CTAs); more at 0.9070 and sub-0.9040
•Offers at 0.9240 from Asian Central Bank
•More supply seen at 0.9280 and 0.93
•Buy stops at 0.9260/70 and above 0.93

USD/CAD
•Bids at 1.0470, 1.0450 and large at 1.04
•Sell stops at 1.0460, 1.0420 and sub-1.04
•Offers 1.0550, 1.0580 and in better size at 1.06
•Buy stops sizeable above 1.06

KEY NEWS AHEAD:


•18:00 GMT (14:00 EST) - Minutes from FOMC meeting
•20:10 GMT (16:10 EST) - Ben Bernanke speaks

[Abo Abdullah]

US account covering GBP/USD shorts; now trading around 1.4900, up about 100 pips after the 1.4800 barrier was well protected

[Abo Abdullah]

Morgan Stanley's Current Open Tactical FX Trades

The following is a list of Morgan Stanley's current open tactical FX trades (spot) as of July 10, 2013.

Long EUR/CHF from 1.2310 with a revised stop at 1.2210 and a target at 1.3000.

Long USD/CHF from 0.9347 with a stop at 0.9270 and a target at 1.0100.

Long USD/CAD from 1.0200 with a revised stop at 1.0410 and a target at 1.0800.

Short GBP/NZD entered at WMR on July 04 with a stop at 2.008 and a target at 1.860.

Short USD/JPY from 100.00 with a stop at 101.70 and a target at 95.00.

Short EUR/JPY from 130.00 with a stop at 131.30 and a target at 124.00.

Short GBP/USD from 1.5500 with a revised stop at 1.5360 and a target at 1.4800.

*Closed trade this week

Short EUR/USD from 1.3310 (hit target at 1.2800)

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/CAD - Speculator sell interest at 1.0520 up to 1.0530; stops above 1.0550 through 1.0570

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Brief - London

[LONDON 11:11 GMT July 10] EUR/USD defied expectations in the European sessiuon, rising when a clear majority forecast a further slide on the back of yesterday’s dovish spin from ECB’s Asmussen, and S&P’s Italian downgrade. Instead there was a decent rally as specs fell back in the face of a large Asian reserve manger’s buy order. Stops were chased out above 1.2800 and 1.2830. That though does even dent short-dated negatives techs, and represents little more than some book keeping before FOMC minutes at 18GMT, and Bernanke at 20.10GMT. Sellers now gather ahead of the 100-HMA at 1.2850, Buyers in front of 1.2750 barrier and year low at 1.2740. jeremy.boulton at thomsonreuters com

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD - Japanese corporate accounts offers at 1.2880 and 1.2920; stops above 1.2950 through 1.2960

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/USD - US leveraged accounts selling this pair

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

The following are the latest technical outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at UBS

EUR/USD: (Bearish) Yesterday the pair closed below the key support at 1.2797. Next support focus is at 1.2663. Resistance is at 1.2898.

USD/JPY: (Bullish) Focus is on further upside, with immediate resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at 103.74. Support is at 99.26.

GBP/USD: (Bearish ) The pair tested the key support 1.4832. A closing break below this would be negative, opening 1.4646. Resistance is at 1.4981.

AUD/USD: (Bearish) With the bear trend intact focus is on the support at 0.8771 ahead of 0.8545. Interim support is at 0.9037. Resistance stand at 0.9201.

Source – UBS FX