== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse Strategy Technical Analysis

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Interbank FX Wire

EUR/USD reached a high of 1.3368 after the US CPI release, but bulls were discouraged by talk of large offers from 1.3380 to 1.3410, which include supply from sovereign names and corporates. To the downside, dealers note stops building sub-1.3320 with some bids ahead.

GBP/USD spent the US session in a 25 pips range and flows were minimal. Banks note stops accumulating sub-1.5880 and offers from corporates & leveraged names lined up at 1.5950.

USD/JPY was lifted by buying from US leveraged funds in early New York, but ran again into solid offers from Asian accounts ahead of 99.40 tech resistance. Stops seen at 98.90.

AUD/USD absorbed selling from macro funds very well and remains bid on the dips. The pair topped out at 0.9365 and there are offers from leveraged names at 0.9375/80.

Macros also sold NZD/USD and the pair stalled ahead of tech resistance at 0.8250.

An US bank sold USD/CAD but solid bids from tech and domestic accounts at 1.0270 led to a bounce back to 1.03.

Dealers noted CAD/JPY demand from real money accounts into the London fix

EUR/GBP was sold by real money names, but demand from CTAs and corporates left the stops sub-0.8380 intact. Barrier option seen at 0.8350.
CTAs bought EUR/JPY.

Macro funds covered GBP/CAD long positions.

Technical Levels

EUR/USD has support at 1.3320 and 1.33; a break below would pave the way for a test of 1.3250 support. To the topside, resistance at 1.3380, 1.3408 (Aug 23rd high) and 1.3450 (August high)

GBP/USD support lies at 1.5880; better at 1.5840 and 1.5775 (Sep 12/13 low). Resistance at 1.5960 (Sep 17 high) and 1.60 (psychological level, barrier option).

USD/JPY support at 98.45 (Sep 17 low) and 98.00. Resistance lined up at 99.30, 99.80 and heavy ahead of the 100.00 level.

AUD/USD has support at 0.9320, then 0.9280. Resistance at 0.9380 and 0.94, then 0.9450.

NZD/USD has solid support at 0.81 and 0.8060, while resistance remains at 0.8250 and 0.83.

[Abo Abdullah]

Final Preview For Sep FOMC - Goldman, BofA, HSBC, Citi, UBS, & Others

Below is a sampling of financial firms' forecasts on the timing of the Fed's first announcement that they will begin tapering their monthly asset purchases, with a '1' indicating that the firm believes the Fed will announce they will begin tapering in the Septemeber FOMC statement and '2' indicating that the Fed will make such an announcement in the December FOMC statement.

[Abo Abdullah]

Deutsche Bank Spot Desk Asia Trading Morning Report

EUR
Open 1.3357 Support 1.3300/20 Resistance 1.3385

Euro very much sidelined overnight despite the better German ZEW read ahead of the main event in the FOMC tomorrow.
Market Fed expectations are firmly set towards 10-15bn taper, with the potential for surprises seemingly most likely to come from possible changes to the employment threshold, forward guidance, or adding a floor under inflation.
I expect this to continue in our session today with Euro to remain between 1.3320/80 which are the short term levels to watch. Into the FOMC tech resistance is at 1.3453 above and the 1.3240/60 zone below.

AUD
Open 0.9355 Support 0.9300 Resistance 0.9400

Level to watch is 0.94 figure, above here and we realistically target 0.96 figure this week with little resistance in between.
100 DMA comes in right here at 0.9355, I expect us to trade a tight range today in Asia with the big event tomorrow AM.
O/n straddle implying a move of roughly 100 pips - this seems fairly priced to me and offers a reasonable guide as to what sort of move the mkt is expecting post-FOMC
Pain trade is higher, I think the beta of a move that way is greater than down over FOMC.

JPY
Open 99.15 Support 98.45 97.90(TL) Resistance 100.62 101.50-55
Open 132.45 Support 131.50 Resistance 133.80 135.00


USDJPY is about to open at almost same lvl as yesterday. It looks like capped well at around Friday NY closing lvl.
Book-wise; Net bids down to low 98s. Very light int on upside with light short-covering above mid 99s.
FOMC later tonight is highlight of the week. Locally, Trade number tomorrow, and Kuroda to speak Friday.
I stick to range trading within 98-101 which has been shifted a little higher. Positioning wise, IMM's position is still a little wary while Japanese retail specs' longs has been decreased over course of the move yesterday already. cross-JPY side, I feel like re-entering long GBPJPY on back of high 156s, highest lvl since 2009s though depends on BoE minutes later today.

NZD
Open 0.8230 Support 0.8180 Resistance 0.8250

Good performance by the NZD overnight but action today will be limited to say the least
Current account numbers came out this morning at -4.3% which sets us up for Q2 GDP tomorrow

CAD
Open 1.0300 Support 1.0275 Resistance 1.0335

Data in Canada have been generally strong bar a blip during August - the latest being Manufacturing sales which were much stronger at 1.7% MoM
USDCAD should continue to trade heavy with of course the FED the real factor

GBP
Open 1.5904 Support 1.5880 Resistance 1.6000

Shaping up as a big evening for cable, technically speaking things look quite good but 1.60 will represent quite a decent psychological hurdle.
BOE minutes the immediate focus, these will be released at 6.30PM AEST and should tell us whether policy makers have grown less dovish following this recent spate of strong UK data.
Market is already looking for this though to an extent, gilts sold off overnight with cable remaining stubbornly bid ahead of 1.59 figure.
ST market sitting long pounds, tonight will be make or break especially with FOMC to follow.

CHF
Open 1.2369 Support 1.2335/1.2280 Resistance 1.2390/1.2420
Open 0.9260 Support 0.9225/0.9150 Resistance 0.9280/0.9340

USDCHF subdued ahead of the FOMC tomorrow morning and looks set to go into the meeting towards lower end of the years range.
The medium term direction from here in USDCHF should hinge on the markets reaction to the Fed from here, EURCHF also via stocks reaction

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse Strategy Technical Analysis

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks

FX Technicals

EURUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.3386 ahead of the critical 1.3452. Support is at 1.3279, a breach of which would expose 1.3212.

USDJPY BULLISH Resistance is at 100.61 ahead of 101.53. As bullish conditions persist, any downside should be limited to support at 98.46/21.

GBPUSD BULLISH Resistance is at 1.5963, a break above which would open the way to 1.6059. Support is at 1.5759.

USDCHF NEUTRAL Support is at 0.9225, a move below which would expose the critical area at 0.9147/30. Resistance is at 0.9313 ahead of 0.9368.

AUDUSD NEUTRAL
Resistance is at 0.9394 ahead of 0.9510. Only a close above this would be a
major bullish development and confirm the bullish sentiment. Support is at
0.9203 ahead of 0.9084.

USDCAD NEUTRAL There is a strong support at 1.0241, a close below which would be negative.Resistance is at 1.0387.

EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2434 ahead of 1.2475. Support is at 1.2326 ahead of 1.2268.

EURGBP BEARISH With the bearish trend in place, any upside should be limited to resistance at 0.8454. Support is at 0.8357 ahead of 0.8285.

EURJPY BULLISH Important resistance is at 133.80. A close above which would extend the strength to 138.49. Support is at 131.61 ahead of 129.91.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action

Source: UBS FX Strategy

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP Set To Top Vs USD & EUR; USD Index Basing Continues - BofA Merrill

Evidence says that the GBP uptrend is running out of gas, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"NOW both GBP/USD and EUR/GBP have run into levels that should cap its rise. Specifically, GBP/USD is testing old 4.5yr Triangle support now resistance at 1.5948, while EUR/GBP is rebounding from YTD Flag support at 0.8360.THESE ARE VERY STRONG LEVELS," BofA clarifies.

"Furthermore, momentum (RSI) in both currency pairs is at levels that have coincided with bearish GBP turns. To be sure, more needs to be seen GBP/USD back below 1.5752 and EUR/GBP above 0.8428), but GBP bulls need to start taking protective measures," BofA advises.

Meanwhile, BofA notes that the USD Index has reached the low end of the 81.40/81.01 ideal basing zone from which BofA looks for a turn higher.

"An impulsive break above 81.79 confirms a base and bullish turn/resumption of its 2yr+ uptrend for 84.75/85.28. We would abandon our bullish view and turn neutral below 80.75 and would turn outright bearish below 80.49," BofA projects.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

BU Bull view INTACT but Fed LOOMS

Pair consolidates near recent highs as mkt awaits Fed taper decision
Rally remains intact, below 1.3230/50 support puts it in jeopardy
Dovish Fed surprise rally persists, Mkt sees pair higher post-Fed
Reuters survey shows most see it higher, ~49% see it > 1.3400
58.5% see it > 1.3350, most see it 1.3450, rally to 1.35 likely stirs ECB angst
Rally may then falter, Chart: http://link.reuters.com/fuz23v

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks

FX Technicals

EURUSD BULLISH Further support developed and with bullish conditions in place, there is no major resistance until 1.3711. Support is at 1.3375.

USDJPY BULLISH As bullish conditions persist, any downside should find strong support at 96.82. Resistance is at 100.61 ahead of 101.53.

GBPUSD BULLISH Resistance is at 1.6179, a break above which would open the way to 1.6381.Support is at 1.5893.

USDCHF BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, reflecting a bearish condition, the next critical support focus is at 0.9022. Resistance is at 0.9242.

AUDUSD BULLISH Having closed above the important resistance at 0.9510, there is scope for more upside to 0.9715. Support is at 0.9336.

USDCAD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.0202, a break below which would expose 1.0137.Resistance is at 1.0318.

EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2415 ahead of 1.2475. Support is at 1.2326 ahead of 1.2268.

EURGBP BEARISH With the bearish trend in place, any upside should be limited to resistance at 0.8454. Support is at 0.8353 ahead of 0.8285.
EURJPY BULLISH Important resistance is at 133.80. A close above which would extend the strength to 138.49. Support is at 131.61 ahead of 129.91.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action

Source: UBS FX Strategy

[anwar3]

مشكور يابو عبدالله على المتابعة اليومية
اخوك انور

[Abo Abdullah]

مشكور يابو عبدالله على المتابعة اليومية
اخوك انور

حبيبي والله انور , منور الموضوع دائما , وفقك الله ورزقك يالغالي

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse Strategy & Technical Analysis