== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Large USDJPY vanilla option noted at the 100.00 level set to expire at 10am ET (nearly 15 minutes from now); given an otherwise very dull market, this could be currently providing some magnetic effects

[Abo Abdullah]

Interbank FX Wire

Leveraged names have pushed the EUR/USD higher, taking out sovereign selling above 1.3280 and triggering sizeable stops on the way up to 1.3320
GBP/USD went into the NY open trading around 1.5775 and steady demand from US macro funds and European real money accounts took it to 1.5830
Talk that some macro names have offers to take profit at 1.5850
USD/JPY declined to 99.85 in the US session as momentum players targeted sizeable stops beneath the big figure; still decent bids seen at 99.80 and 99.50
AUD/USD was dominated by two-way flows with an US real money account steady buyer, but hitting into supply from Asian sovereign names
Momentum funds were eventually able to push the pair above 0.9320 where it hit into offers from leveraged names, including macros
Bulls were able to trigger the stops above 0.9320 on the third try; decent offers now lined up at 0.9340/50
NZD/USD has offers at 0.81 and bids resting at 0.8020; stops through 0.7990 and to the topside, above the big figure
AUD/JPY trailing stops starting at 92.80
USD/CHF bids at 0.9280 and better size at 0.9250 with more stops beneath that level
Dealers note CTA stops through 132.45 in EUR/JPY

Technical Levels

EUR/USD has support at 1.3250 and better at 1.3220 with stops below both levels. To the topside, resistance seen at 1.3330 up to 1.3350 and heavy ahead of the 1.34 level.

GBP/USD support lying at 1.5750 and 1.57 with stops accumulating beneath the big figure. Resistance lined up at 1.5850 with more stops above.

USD/JPY support at 99.80 and larger at 99.50. Stops through 99.80 and larger beneath the mid figure. Resistance at 100.40/50 and heavy ahead of 101.00.

AUD/USD has support at 0.9280; better at 0.9240 and 0.9220 with stops beneath these levels. 0.9340-50 is major technical resistance.

NZD/USD support lying at 0.8010 and 0.7960 with stops through 0.7990 and sub-0.7950. Topside, decent resistance at 0.81 and then 0.8160. Stops above the big figure.

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Bulls tapped ECB Hanson LTRO tip

ECB's Hanson: New LTRO discussed but current policy appropriate
EUR/USD offers noted into 1.3320/40 untouched & stops >Aug 29 high safe
Intra-day longs exit & pair pressing into s-t supt 1.3280/90
Back below 1.3280 suggests earlier break was false, puts 1.3230/45 supt in focus
Pain likely for recent longs if 1.3230 breaks Chart: http://link.reuters.com/hup92v

EU Tech BID by Breakout 1.3280

Kijun & 50% Fibo hurdles cleared by 1.3280; our new pullback bid
Daily oscillators coming off fresh oversold buys & 50% Fibo base Sept 6
1.3320-23 prior lows & 61.8% next pivots, retest of 1.3453 peak next target

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks

FX Technicals

EURUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.3343, a break above which would extend the recent strength to 1.3452. Support is at 1.3230 ahead of 1.3103.

USDJPY BULLISH Any downside should be limited as bullish conditions persist. Support is at 98.78 ahead of 97.64. Resistance is at 101.53 ahead of 103.74.

GBPUSD BULLISH
The pair advanced sharply to close above the June high at 1.5750. There is scope for more upside to resistance at 1.5879 and then onto 1.5995. Support is at 1.5686.

USDCHF NEUTRAL Support at 0.9265, a breach of which would trigger a deeper sell-off to 0.9147 Resistance is at 0.9371 ahead of 0.9456.

AUDUSD NEUTRAL
Fresh selling pressure materialised this morning. Support focus is at 0.9178, a break below which would extend the weakness to 0.9069Resistance is at 0.9354 ahead of the main 0.9510.

USDCAD NEUTRAL There is a strong support at 1.0241, a close below which would be negative Resistance is at 1.0380 ahead of 1.0436.

EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2434 ahead of 1.2475. Support is at 1.2326 ahead of 1.2268.

EURGBP BEARISH
Having tested the strong support at 0.8397, the immediate risk appears for a short-term recovery to unwind the sharp sell-off. Resistance is at 0.8486 Support is at 0.8383 ahead of 0.8285.

EURJPY BULLISH Important resistance is at 133.80. A close above which would extend the strength to 138.49. Support is at 131.92 ahead of 129.91
.
*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action

Source: UBS FX Strategy

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Merrill - 'At The Risk Of Sounding Like A Broken Record, We Remain USD Bulls'

From Gold to Brent crude oil, to the Indian Rupee, commodity and EM FX markets say that markets have discounted the immediate event risk surrounding Syria, notes Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Amid this improving risk, BofA advises its clients to keep the faith and stay USD bulls

"At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we remain US $ bulls. Taking a look at the USD Index, from the Aug-20 lows at 80.75, gains have been impulsive and weakness corrective. Indeed, further losses should be limited to 81.39, worst case 81.10/8101 before the larger bull trend resumes for 84.75/85.28. An impulsive move above 82.07 confirms the larger bull trend has resumed," BofA clarifies.

Meanwhile, BofA continues to think that EUR/GBP weakness remains corrective
.
"Indeed from the Feb highs of 0.8816 price continues to carve out a Bullish Continuation Flag. Indeed, into Flag support at 0.8362 we look for a base and turn higher for Flag resistance at 0.8761," BofA projects.

In its technical portfolio, BofA maintains 3 tactical long USD/JPY positions from 98.00, 97.50, and 97.00 with a revised stop at 96.80, and a target at 105.80/106.

[Abo Abdullah]

JPM G10 Daily Report‏

EUR

A quiet session in euro exploded towards options expiry and continued into the day’s end as euro demand (and broad usd selling) took us from 1.3250 to 1.3325 where we have stalled. Late yesterday I put out that I have started to establish euro shorts above 1.3300 and that remains the case. I don’t think it will work this morning as euro cross covering in the antipodean space is to be expected, combined with the usd offered tone against yen and Swiss, but I expect any euro demand to wane later in the session. The headwinds for Europe are starting to blow again, and I simply can’t see us up here into the fed next week so I have established shorts in cash and options that I will try and run for a time. Short term resistance lies at 1.3325 and 1.3350, with 1.3400 my real pain point. A break back below 1.3285 would be the first sign that a top is in place and a run at 1.3220-40 is on the cards.

GBP

The UK recovery continues apace. The jobless data yesterday provided yet more evidence of that with a strong all round set of numbers that took GBP to new recent highs across the board. The short term market may now be a little long of the currency (the immediate reaction to the number confirmed that) but medium and long term players don't yet have the position on and, as I've said repeatedly in recent weeks, I don't see what drives us significantly lower right now. Today's TSC will see Carney once more given the opportunity to explain policy in more detail, alongside dovish members Miles and Fisher. This could provide a bit of volatility this morning but overall stick to the plan and buy sterling dips or a sustained break lower in EUR GBP below 0.8380.

JPY

Yesterday's blip higher aside, USD JPY is playing out this week as I originally suspected it would on Monday. There is no real momentum on either side and 98.50-100.50 should broadly hold us on either side now, going into next week's FOMC. The overnight move lower has seen short term longs initiated above 100.00 taken out and I think we can trade onto a 98 handle later today. Buy that dip with a 98.30 stop. EUR JPY is behaving similarly, unable to sustain the move above 133.00 and trading lower overnight. Downside levels at 131.90 and 131.00 suggest a 200 point range should sustain the cross into early next week.

CHF

The market eventually managed to pull itself out of its slumber towards the 3pm expiry yesterday, with the dollar coming under pressure across the board into the end of day. The consecutive failures above the 200 MA and 0.9350 resistance zone is an ominous sign for the pair, with model selling likely to weigh on us this morning, although it must be noted that 0.9280/00 support has held firm to this point. I advocated buying into dips towards the figure yesterday and I have stuck by the plan – I am small long with a stop through 0.9270 on the day. EURCHF failed yet again to extend through the 1.2400 pivot and subsequently drifted lower over the course of the session driven by the slide in USDCHF. This pair has been in strong demand of late on moves below 1.2350 by those that missed the move onto the 1.22 handle last month, and I expect this to continue to be the case going forward. Anything near 1.2340 support is a buy, keeping a 1.2310 stop on the day or 1.2275 for those looking from a longer term perspective.

AUD:
Soft unemployment data O/N has seen AUD selloff after hitting a high of 0.9355 prior to the number.

We should see some follow through selling emerge this morning, especially on crosses, so look to sell towards 0.9280/00 on the day. A break of support at 0.9220/30 will likely see stops kick in as well. So either sell the rally and/or the break on the day. Reassess if we see 0.9360

NZD:
RBNZ delivered an upbeat assessment and confirmed rate hikes are coming in 2014. This is an acceptance of the hikes already built into the rates market, but is hawkish all the same. NZD rallied from 0.8080 before topping out around 0.8150. Although there was a mention of currency strength, Wheeler is hoping that tapering in the U.S. will relieve some of the upward pressure. Expect NZD to outperform today, especially on crosses, as the RBNZ becomes one of the first to start to raise rates early next year.

AUD/NZD. A perfect storm for this cross last night. A hawkish RBNZ was followed by a soft unemployment print in Australia. Look to sell this cross on rallies. First res is at 1.1410/20 then 1.1480, reassess back above 1.1500. Break of trendline support at 1.1365/70 should see follow through selling

CAD

USDCAD continued its slow and polite descent yesterday, tip-toeing its way through the bids around the 100 DMA at 1.0330 that had previously acted as strong support for the pair. 1.0300 will undoubtedly provide more support on the way down, and as is typical with this pair, the move lower will continue to be a painful grind. The 1.0250/70 July bottom is the next pivot to watch for, below which we are somewhat exposed until 1.0140. Stay core short, adding on rallies.

[Abo Abdullah]

Deutsche Bank Spot Trading Morning Report

EUR (Michael Ford)

Open 1.3305 Support 1.3280 1.3190 Resistance 1.3325 1.3415
Euro continues to grind its way higher with most flows from real money and macros being rhs.
A break above 1.3280 yesterday brought out renewed buying interest taking us to the highs where a few Asian names were selling.
Overall with vol still subdued I don't expect this to run away at all, although it does feel like we have some more work to do on the topside.
Holding a small long although still finding it tough to have strong interest here. A break above 1.3330 opens a run to 1.34.

GBP (Michael Waugh Bacchus)

Open 1.5802 Support 1.5739 (200 wma) Resistance 1.5905 (channel top)
Unemployment heading in the right direction and sterling lurches higher. Flow wise once again we saw Institutional Investors buying sterling crosses .
Order book favours further sterling gains . Position wise i remain short eurgbp with a stop placed above 0.8490, good luck. .

CHF (Christoph Milewski)

Open 1.2375/77 Support 1.2360/1.2330 Resistance 1.2420/1.2450
Open 0.9301/03 Support 0.9290/0.9270 Resistance 0.9380/0.9450
The x is still playing the 1,2330/1,2410 range and we can't see a breakout short term due to lack of interest around current levels...on the longer run we keep our patience and maintain long
The very stable eurusd keeps usdchf under pressure and we are currently testing the 0,9290/0.9300 support zone, a clear break here would cap the greenback at 0,9320 for the time being

AUD (Cameron McKay)

Open 0.9250 Support .9140 .9070 Resistance 9350
Weaker employment data, turns AUD back down after pressing higher through 9320/50 window, filling our resting offers.
AUDNZD tops, and trades very heavy, post RBNZ and employment mix, positioning was much lighter post the RBA change in tone, and now suspect the cross will remain a sell on rallies to 1.4120.
AUD commitment mixed between what feels like better risk environment and weaker data, so sitting out right now. Would like to sell closer to .9280 in AUDUSD and 1.14 in AUDNZD.
.

NZD (Cameron McKay)

Open 0.8140 Support 0.7920 Resistance 8165 .8186 .8350
RBNZ statement catches up to the market pricing, more hawkish and bringing forward its hikes into H1 next year.
Some interesting resistance here in the .8165 level (200 day ma .8186). But if we grind through this it opens up .8350.
AUDNZD will remain heavy, a lot of positioning was covered post RBA, and now market commitment to trade should increase.

JPY (Peter Redston)

Open 99.35 Support 99.20 Resistance 100.62 101.50-55
Open 132.20 Support 132.70 132.20 Resistance 133.80 135.00
USDJPY slides on the London open triggering stops as the market capitulates on positions initiated above 100. With the wider risk environment largely unchanged this feels like classic position (AUDJPY in particular) capitulation rather than anything material with dips continuing to find demand from local names.
Book-wise, stops have been largely triggered while 98.50 remains the downside pivot. Very light int on upside with barrier interest growing from 101 upwards, 101.55 remains the next key topside pivot.
Yomiuri newspaper reported earlier this morning that Abe is pretty much decided to hike sales tax to 8 % in 2014 as scheduled after BoJ Tankan release on Oct.1st, while he will likely combine this with a 5trl jpy stimulus package.
Price action is very disappointing, although I remain long for the time being, with the fundamental picture unchanged – dips should continue to be bought if you have the ammo/appetite..

CAD (Peter Redston)
Open 1.0312 Support 1.0280 Resistance 1.0350
Bearish price action in USDCAD continues and our order book has become more down here at 1.03
Interest has been limited in the loonie in recent sessions despite the wider rally in risk, and I do not see that changing today

SKANDIES (Trevor Dinmore)

SEK

Open 8.6750 Support 8.65 ,8.62 Resistance 8.78

EURSEK traded a 8.67-8.69 range yesterday as Scandi FX markets consolidated following the Norway CPI on Tuesday.
This morning's CPI and unemployment data was very close to consensus so offers little news.
Perhaps the divergence in CPI developments versus Norway may see NOKSEK try higher again.
On the charts, though we continue to hold the bottom of the range towards 8.65, EURSEK closed again below the trendline from July and the 55-day moving average.

NOK

Open 7.86 Support 7.82 , 7.77 Resistance 7.91, 7.96
EURNOK consolidated between 7.84 and 7.88 yesterday after the violent move on Tuesday following the CPI.
Close support remains 7.82-83 and beyond that 7.77. Resistance above is likely at 7.90-91 and then 7.95-96.
The data calendar is empty ahead of next week's Norges Bank decision so while EURNOK may remain offered the price action is likely to be more orderly over the coming days.
NOKSEK corrected slightly yesterday but has bounced after the Swedish CPI data. Beyond Tuesday's high, the next likely resistance area is up towards 1.1160..

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Dr_hodhod]

ياغالي صباح الفل عليك .

اوامر بيع معلقة يورو دولار .

33133

33222

33255

والاستوب 3340 . وشراء معلق من 3340 بهدف 3400 . . .

تحياتي ياغالي . ويوم اخضر باذن الله . واخبار البطالة اليوم على الدولار الساعة 2.30 سيكون لها تاثير في تحديد الصفقة .

[Abo Abdullah]

ياغالي صباح الفل عليك .

اوامر بيع معلقة يورو دولار .

33133

33222

33255

والاستوب 3340 . وشراء معلق من 3340 بهدف 3400 . . .

تحياتي ياغالي . ويوم اخضر باذن الله . واخبار البطالة اليوم على الدولار الساعة 2.30 سيكون لها تاثير في تحديد الصفقة .

صباح الورد يالغالي , بس ليش اليوم اوامر البيع المعلقه قريبه يالغالي , انا

عندي بيع معلق من 3340 , والله يستر من الاخبار

[Dr_hodhod]

صباح الورد يالغالي , بس ليش اليوم اوامر البيع المعلقه قريبه يالغالي , انا

عندي بيع معلق من 3340 , والله يستر من الاخبار

اختراق 3330 الى 3340 والثبات يعني 3400 مباشرة .

بالتالي اوامر البيع سارفعها قليلا تحت 3340 . وامر الشراء المعلق سالغيه وسيكون يدوي .

ولو الخبر ايجابي للدولار سيتم البيع يدوي بعد الخبر .

[Abo Abdullah]

اختراق 3330 الى 3340 والثبات يعني 3400 مباشرة .

بالتالي اوامر البيع سارفعها قليلا تحت 3340 . وامر الشراء المعلق سالغيه وسيكون يدوي .

ولو الخبر ايجابي للدولار سيتم البيع يدوي بعد الخبر .

تمام , انا الحين عندي بيع قديم من 3240 واذا وصل 3340 راح ابيع وجميع الاهداف تكون مبدئيا عند 3180 و عندي كيوي بيع من 8045 ومن 8140 واسترالي ايضا عندي بيع من 9334 والهدف المبدئي 9180

[Dr_hodhod]

تمام , انا الحين عندي بيع قديم من 3240 واذا وصل 3340 راح ابيع وجميع الاهداف تكون مبدئيا عند 3180 و عندي كيوي بيع من 8045 ومن 8140 واسترالي ايضا عندي بيع من 9334 والهدف المبدئي 9180

جميلة صفقة الاسترالي . باذن الله يضرب الهدف .

انا مستني الاسترليني عند 5850 الى 5860 . لن يتجاوزها باذن الله .

[Abo Abdullah]

جميلة صفقة الاسترالي . باذن الله يضرب الهدف .

انا مستني الاسترليني عند 5850 الى 5860 . لن يتجاوزها باذن الله .

انا كمان مستنيه بس عند 5880 ههههه مش مشكله 20 نقطه نتقاسمهم بعدين هههههه

[Abo Abdullah]

Interbank FX Wire

An Asian central bank was a noted buyer of EUR/USD around 1.33
Stops sub-1.3280 intact so far; corporate bids noted at 1.3250/60
Offers from Asian accounts lined up 1.3320-25; stops above
Short-term specs got squeezed out in GBP/USD during the Carney testimony
Offers ahead of the 1.5850 barrier option; bids from Asian accounts seen at 1.5775/80
Buying from an ACB and Asian specs lifted the USD/JPY up to 99.60, but solid Yen buying in the crosses eventually drove the pair back to 99.30
Good importer bids at 99.00/05; large macro stops beneath 98.60
Offers from specs resting at 99.75/80 with stops seen above
AUD/USD consolidated after large losses in the Asian session; talk of hedge fund bids ahead of 0.9220 supported the pair; stops seen beneath that level
Leveraged accounts placed offers at 0.9280/90 and stops are accumulating above 0.93
Solid and steady buying of NZD across the board from leveraged names
Middle East account sold EUR/JPY in good size
Macro fund noted seller of EUR/GBP; sizeable stops sub-0.8380
More trailing stops resting below 91.50 in AUD/JPY

Technical Levels:

EUR/USD has minor support at 1.3280, stronger at 1.3230 and 1.3180. Stops are building sub-1.3250 and through 1.3220. Topside, resistance at 1.3350 and heavy at 1.34.

GBP/USD support lying at 1.5760, better at 1.5720 and 1.5680. Stops through 1.5740 and beneath 1.57. Resistance seen at 1.5850 and pre-1.59.

USD/JPY has support at 99.20; 98.60 seen as major technical level. Stops below 99.20 and larger beneath the big figure. Topside, resistance at 100.00, 100.40/50 and ahead of the 101.00 barrier option. Stops above 100.10 and in better size above 100.50.

AUD/USD has major support at 0.9180 and 0.9120. Stops sub-0.92 through 0.9190. Resistance at 0.93 and heavy at 0.9350 with large stops above.

NZD/USD support resting at 0.8080 and 0.8040. Resistance heavy at 0.8220.