== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS Daily FX Report

FX Technicals

EUR/USD - BULLISH Yesterday the pair stalled at 1.3345. A move above this would trigger further upside to test the key resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3266 ahead of the critical 1.3190.

USD/JPY- BEARISH The recent sell-off closed below the critical support at 96.75.this was a bearish development opening 93.57. Resistance is at 97.82 ahead of 99.95.

GBP/USD- BULLISH Yesterday the pair closed above the critical resistance at 1.5394. This development was positive. Support is at 1.5206.

USD/CHF - BEARISH With the trending and momentum indicators pointing lower, focus in on further downside. There is a strong support at 0.9130. Resistance is at 0.9297.

AUD/USD - BEARISH Upside should be limited with a strong resistance at 0.9028, which was tested this morning. The risk is for resumption of downside from here. Support is at 0.8848 ahead of 0.8771.

USD/CAD- NEUTRAL Resistance at 1.0428 is being tested currently. A closing break above this would expose 1.0470. Support is at 1.0348.

EUR/CHF- BEARISH With the trending and momentum pointing lower potential remains for further downside. Support is at 1.2268 ahead of 1.2219. Upside should be limited with a strong resistance is at 1.2348.

EUR/GBP- BULLISH The cross came under sharp selling pressure and tested the support at 0.8584, but failed to close below it. With the bull trend intact potential is for a move above 0.8731 to test the critical resistance at 0.8815.

EUR/JPY- NEUTRAL Support focus is at 127.94. A closing break below this would confirm the settlement of MACD below its zero line. Resistance is at 130.22 ahead of 133.80.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD – Offers at 1.3380 with stops above, then more offers at 1.3400 and more stops above 1.3420. Bids at 1.3350 and 1.3300 with stops under 1.3330

USD/JPY - bids from Japanese importers and option players ahead of the 96.00 level, but large sell stops below which may attract at a later point

AUD/USD - talk of an offer in good size resting at 0.9090, but stops around 0.9110 may attract soon; pair well-bid this morning

NZD/USD - stops above 0.80 under threat; not much supply seen until 0.8050

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP/USD - offers reported at 1.5530 with more supply seen at 1.5550; buy stops above the mid figure, while bids are lined up at 1.5480 and 1.5450

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY – Being sold by US leveraged accounts with stops under 96.00 gaining some attention

[Abo Abdullah]

Morgan Stanley - Sold EUR/USD From 1.3310 Targeting 1.2700

Morgan Stanley entered into a macro tactical short EUR/USD trade from 1.3310 with a stop at 1.3440, and a target at 1.2700. Interestingly, MS is almost replicating the same levels of its last profitable short EUR/USD trade from July (opened 1.3310, with a stop at 1.3440, and a target at 1.2800).

On the USD front, MS' bullish view revolves mainly on expecting the Fed QE tapering to start in September.

"We believe that this presents a bullish environment for the USD over the medium term, as the Fed continues to provide a supportive policy for the domestic economy, but slowing the growth of USD liquidity which has been used to fund broader global risk markets. We expect the US to increase its attractiveness as a longer term investment destination, as has become evident with the cross-border M&A activity, where net announced deals now show a net inflow to the US," MS clarifies.

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Merrill - Cable Strength Corrective; USD/JPY Breakdown In Range

GBP has strengthened markedly, with GBP/USD breaking key 1.5438/40 resistance and pointing to further near term corrective gains, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch commenting on being stopped out of its short cable position on this move higher.

"Indeed, gains should extend to the 200d (1.5540), potentially as far as 1.5723 (swing target). HOWEVER, against a break of the Jun-17 high at 1.5752, gains are temporary and a correction of the larger BEAR TREND FOR 1.4783/67 and eventually 1.4228 and below," BofA adds.

"DON’T LOSE SIGHT OF THE BIGGER PICTURE. A break back below 1.5206 says the downtrend is resuming," BofA advises.

For USD/JPY, BofA thinks that it's breaking down in a range recommending to stay near term bearish for 95.25 (3-5m Triangle/Contracting Range support), potentially 93.65/79.

"HOWEVER, once again, DON’T LOSE SIGHT OF THE BIGGER PICTURE. This multi-month range ultimately resolves higher for a resumption of the long term bull trend, with year end targets seen to the 107/108 area," BofA projects.

[Abo Abdullah]

Citigroup - see the Carney cable move topping at 1.5600

Then dropping to 1.50 by year end says head of European currency strategy Valentin Marinov.

He doubts that the initial move up will grow into a trend reversal higher and is still a seller on rallies.

Meanwhile 1.5550 and 1.5600 are rumoured to be holding option barriers.

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/USD – Offers at .9100 and .9150 with stops through .9110

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/CHF - US bank buying in good size

Sentiment towards USD/JPY remains negative with most expecting further downside

EUR/JPY pushing to the downside as its influenced by the selling in USD/JPY; system funds looking for a break through 128.00 to add to the selling

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD –Banks Offers Start building noted at 1.3380/90 in good size
From Frankfurt - Desk

[Abo Abdullah]

BETA - Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90% ):

•EURUSD: 1.3395-1.3410 on the upside, 1.3235-1.3250 on the downside.
•AUDUSD: 0.9140-0.9155 on the upside, 0.8915-0.8930 on the downside.
•USDJPY: 97.40-97.55 on the upside, 95.55-95.70 on the downside.
•GBPUSD: 1.5630-1.5645 on the upside, 1.5185-1.5200 on the downside.
•USDCAD: 1.0470-1.0485 on the upside, 1.0325-1.0340 on the downside.
•NZDUSD: 0.8035-0.8050 on the upside, 0.7800- 0.7815 on the downside.
•EURJPY: 131.05-131.20 on the upside, 127.20-127.55 on the downside.
•EURGBP: 0.8730-0.8745 on the upside, 0.8525-0.8540 on the downside.
•USDCHF: 0.9270-0.9285 on the upside, 0.9155-0.9170 on the downside.
•AUDJPY: 87.95-88.10 on the upside, 86.00-86.15 on the downside.
•EURAUD: 1.4955-1.4970 on the upside, 1.4610-1.4625 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

[Abo Abdullah]

Real money noted seller of USD/JPY

Stops through .9110 in AUD/USD gaining attention

Citi recommending to clients a long position in EUR/CHF at 1.2304 with a target of 1.2650 and stop loss of 1.2200

[Abo Abdullah]

Repetition

USD/CHF - Stops in noted under .9190 in good size

EUR/USD – leveraged accounts and Real money noted Start offers building at 1.3380/90 in good size

EUR/USD –Banks Offers Start building noted at 1.3380/90 in good size
From Frankfurt - Desk

[Abo Abdullah]

Repetition

USD/CHF - Stops in noted under .9190 in good size

EUR/USD – leveraged accounts and Real money noted Start offers building at 1.3380/90 in good size

EUR/USD –Banks Offers Start building noted at 1.3380/90 in good size

[Abo Abdullah]

أخواني الاعزاء جميع هذه الاخبار و التوقعات والتقارير تعتبر استرشاديه ويجب علينا ان

نعرف كيف نتصرف معها قبل المتاجره والهدف منها ان نعلم ما يدور بالسوق اول بأول

وليس دائما تكون السيناريوهات طبق الواقع حيث اننا نعلم ان واقع السوق متغير دائما حسب

الاخبار سواء السياسيه او الاقتصاديه وحسب توجه كبار المستثمرين بالسوق , وهنا اوجه

كلامي بالاخص الى الاخوه المبتدئين ان ينتبهوا الى هذه التقارير وان لا يتعاملون معها على

انها واقع 100% ولتكون لهم بمثابه الاسترشاد والتوقع وعليهم ان يقارنوها مع باقي التحليلات

ومن جميع النواحي قبل اتخاذ القرار بالمتاجره , اما الاخوه اصحاب الخبره و المحترفون فأعتقد

انهم سيعرفون كيف التعامل معها وفي الاوقات المناسبه لكي يستفيدوا منها ويعلموا ما يحدث

بالاسواق .

يعني مثلا هذا الخبر

EUR/USD – HSBC demand noted at 1.2980 in good size
From Singapore - Desk

ليس معناه ان السعر سيطير وسيتغير الاتجاه لان ممكن البنك يطلع بعد اخذ الاوردر بعد 10 او 20

نقطه وحتى احيانا 5 نقاط تكون صفقات سريعه وبكميات كبيره .

خصوصا اذا كان هناك اتفاق مع فروع البنك في الدول الاخرى حيث يقوم فرع مثلا في لندن ببيع

كميات كبيره ويقوم نفس البنك بفرعه في سنغافورا بالشراء بسعر اقل بعد الهبوط بكميات اكبر وهكذا

وهذا على سبيل المثال وليس الحصر.

أرجوا الحذر بالمتاجره وكميه العقود

ملاحظه : سأعيد هذه المشاركه بين فتره وأخرى لينتبه عليها الاخوان الذين لم يطلعوا عليها .

وفقكم الله جميعا ورزقكم .