== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Erste Group - Trends & Levels For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, & EUR/CHF

The following are the trends and levels for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, and EUR/CHF as provided by the technical strategy team at Erste Group.

[Abo Abdullah]

Asia Market Report

AUD/USD
•Good offers into .8950, more at .9000
•Buy stops above both bid levels in good size
•Bids noted at .8890 through .8880, large at .8950
•Sell stops under .8870 and .8840

NZD/USD
•Offers in decent size from .7900 through .7930
•Buy stops above .7940
•Bids at .7800 and more from .7740 through .7730
•Sell stops scattered under .7790 but in good size below .7730

USD/JPY
•Offers at 99.00 and 100.00
•Buy stops from 98.80 through 98.90
•Bids into 98.00, strong at .97.50
•Sell stops under the big figure and large under 97.50

EUR/USD
•Offers into 1.3270 and in good size ahead of 1.3300; more at 1.3340
•Buy stops above all three offer levels
•Sovereign bids at 1.3230, more buying interest noted from 1.3200 down to 1.3180
•Sell stops below 1.3230, more under 1.3180 through 1.3160

KEY NEWS
•British Retail Sales Monitor expected 2.0% (23:01 GMT)
•Australian House Price Index forecast 1.00% (00:30 GMT)
•Australian Trade Balance consensus 0.80B (00:30 GMT)
•Australian Interest Rate Decision expected 2.50% along with RBA Rate Statement (04:30 GMT)

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - Latest Bullish & Bearish FX Signals

The following tables and charts provide the latest bullish and bearish trending signals for FX, and a selection of other financial instruments as provided by the technical strategy team at Commrezbank.

[Abo Abdullah]

Reserve Bank of Australia meets today – announcement due at 0430GMT. OIS pricing in 106% chance of cut

•A 25 basis point cut is widely expected
•The OIS market is pricing the probability of a 25 bp cut at 106% )
•This means that the market is beginning to price in a 50bp cut (albeit to a very, very low degree, but thats what >100% means)

Bloomberg have surveyed 27 economists.
•26 are expecting a 25 bp cut.
•1 is expecting no cut

[Abo Abdullah]

Tokyo – Nikkei getting sold heavily in the morning

The Nikkei is selling off, and dragging USD/JPY down with it. Some support ahead of 97.75 in USD/JPY, though.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Tokyo names noted sellers in EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY earlier, supporting the Yen

USD/JPY - US leveraged names seen as sellers earlier, stops at 98.20 and sub-98.00 triggered; bids now resting at 97.75 and larger ahead of 97.50

EUR/USD - Asian dealers report about sovereign selling interest above 1.33 and demand from option players ahead of 1.32, stops building on both sides

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Bears FRUSTRATED in tight RANGE

Ovenight dip below 10 DMA stalls as sov bids near 1.3235 spook bears
Price spikes on EUR/GBP demand for fix & Unicredit beat of estimates
Stops 1.3305/10 in focus but corp, spec & option related offers into 1.3350
If bulls clear the offers stops though 1.3350 in play could see run to 1.3415
S-T bulls sweat below 1.3225 as decent stops sit 1.3220 & below 1.3200

[Abo Abdullah]

Demand for EUR/GBP continues from macro accounts

USD/JPY – Japanese bids at 97.50, large stops below that mid figure, then more bids at 97.00. Japanese exporter offers at 98.60 and 98.80 with stops above 98.80

EUR/USD – Strong offers coming through at 1.3310 with more stops above that

[Abo Abdullah]

JP Morgan Technical View

The short term bearish shift for NZD is the key theme to start the new week. Importantly this has led to a quick test of important support for NZD/USD in the .7683/.7650 zone - includes the June low and trendline support from the Nov ’11 low. Note that last week’s failure against the .8140/.8215 resistance zone resulted in a bearish reversal week and a growing risk of further downside follow-through. Given the importance of this support area, violations would argue for a closer test of the .7458 May ’12 low. Note the .7835/.7937 resistance levels will maintain the more immediate downside bias for now. The short term setup for AUD/NZD can see some additional lift as well particularly following the break of nearby resistance levels near 1.14 and 1.1500/20.

Still, the medium term trend remains down. We also see an important setup for AUD/USD as the decline has extended into critical support as we await the RBA and key data. Again, the focus stays on the next line of targets in the .8860/.8770 zone (channel support from the 2011 cycle high, 76.4% retracement from the 2010 low and the Aug ’10 reaction low). While there has been some stabilization in the crosses, the overall bearish risks are expected to prevail. Note that last week’s bullish reversal for USD/CAD implies an increased risk of additional upside follow-through after holding key support levels in the 1.0255/25 zone (76.4% retrace from the June low and the daily cloud support). The 1.0430/50 zone is now key resistance.

EUR/commodity FX seems set to extend with EUR/AUD likely to push into the 1.5245/1.5465 resistance zone, while EUR/CAD appears poised for a breakout from the June-July range. Moreover, the impulsive rally for EUR/NZD continues to develop with the push above the 1.7116 June peak putting the 1.7385/1.7430 zone on the radar. The short term themes for the broad USD are intact as the post-payrolls price action has failed to resolve the current stalemate. While key support levels have held, confirmation of sustained USD rally is still lacking.

While the DXY has effectively held the key 81.40/50support area (200-day moving average and the 76.4% retrace from June), the 82.45/68 zone (38.2% retrace) has capped the upside leading to Friday’s bearish reversal. Moreover, the JPM USD Index reversed from the 83.75 zone, but the retracement has struggled against the 84.47/74 resistance zone. As a result, the key parameters for this week’s trade remain well-defined. Similarly, the reversal in USD/JPY from last week’s low which held key support levels in the 97.65/96.75 zone (50/61.8% retrace/Nov TL) is consistent with an end to the July corrective phase. However, Friday’s bearish reversal pattern and yesterday’s follow-through suggest additional choppy action. The 100.61/101.05 zone (channel/mid-July high) should define whether a deeper upside extension is underway.

[Abo Abdullah]

HSBC Analysis of the RBA statement

The RBA cut its cash rate by 25bp to 2.50%, as expected. The post-meeting statement was less dovish than previous statements, as it did not explicitly indicate that the inflation outlook provided scope for further easing from here, as previous statements had done. They did, however, still suggest that the AUD was a bit too high for them to be comfortable. Markets are currently pricing in a further cut this year. While this is possible, we are of the view that today’s cut could be the last for this easing phase, as the lower AUD is doing a lot of the work for the RBA already and is also an upside risk to the inflation outlook. The RBA’s official statement, published on Friday, will provide more detail on their view of the outlook

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS Daily FX Report

FX Technicals

EUR/USD - BULLISH With the bull trend intact, as reflected by the MACD above its zero line potential is for the pair to move above 1.3345 to test the key resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3120.

USD/JPY - BULLISH The recent sell-off is expected to be held again by the key support at 97.66. Focus is on the key resistance at 100.02. A closing break above this would be positive.

GBP/USD - NEUTRAL Sharp advance was seen since Friday, and the pair is approaching the strong resistance at 1.5394. A closing break above this would be positive. Key support is at 1.5259.

USD/CHF - BEARISH The pair remains under pressure and is approaching the first support at 0.9229. A move below this would trigger further sell-off towards 0.9130. Resistance is at 0.9333.

AUD/USD - BEARISH The pair is targeting support at 0.8771. A move below this would trigger further sell-off towards 0.8545. Upside should be limited with a strong resistance at 0.9028.
USDCAD NEUTRAL The pair came under pressure from the key resistance at 1.0428. Support is at 1.0324 ahead of the significant 1.0241.

EUR/CHF - BEARISH The cross came under pressure and closed below the support at 1.2313. This was a strong bearish development, with next focus at 1.2219. Resistance is at 1.2359.
EUR/GBP - BULLISH Risk is for to short term correction to unwind the overextended upside conditions. Support is at 0.8626. Resistance is at 0.8815.

EUR/JPY - BULLISH With the MACD still above the zero line, the risk is for further upside. Resistance is at 133.80. Any downside will again be held by strong support at 129.77.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action

[Abo Abdullah]

Commonwealth Bank - What Does A Post-QE World Look Like

The Fed may be signalling the end of QE. But the ECB, BoE, BoJ and RBA remain in full QE mode. A stronger USD is likely as a result. Indeed, the end of the Fed’s QE may prove to be a trigger for a secular upturn in the USD. The USD has moved through three big cycles over the past forty years. As the facing chart shows, each cycle has involved an extended period of decline, an extended bottom and then an extended period of appreciation. The USD is at that point where a secular appreciation commenced in earlier episodes. Currencies are about more than just QE of course. And we see other factors supporting a sustained USD uptrend. These include the lift in US real bond yields (partly an-end-of- QE story as well), US growth outperformance, a narrower US current account deficit and reduced USD diversification by central banks."

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Agricole - Time To Start Cutting AUD/NZD Shorts & Reverse Into Longs

Having ridden AUD/NZD lower over the past month, we now recommend investors cut their short positions. More aggressive short-term investors may wish to consider reversing their AUD/NZD positions to exploit NZD’s greater sensitivity to China’s milk powder ban in the week ahead.