== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Choopy range until ECB

Soft German retail sales ignored - month end cross flow supported
1.3210 tested on GDP & ADP - 1.3345 rebound post dovish FOMC
Further choppy trading likely into ECB - [ID:nL6N0FZ3AY]
Marginal bullish outside day - 5, 10 & 20 dma's trend north
Charts suggest 1.3417 June high test

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS Daily FX Report

FX Technicals

EUR/USD - BULLISH

With the bull trend intact as reflected by the MACD above its zero line, potential is for the pair to move above 1.3302 to test the key resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3169.

USD/JPY- NEUTRAL

Last week's sell-off faces a strong support at 96.75.A closing break below this would trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 98.84 ahead of 99.62.

GBP/USD- NEUTRAL

Following the test of significant resistance at 1.5394, the pair came under pressure. This weakness is trading just above key support at 1.5124, a closing break below this would prolong the correction.

USD/CHF - BEARISH

Yesterday's sharp sell-off puts our focus on further downside, with next key support at 0.9130. Any upside should be limited as the MACD settled below the zero line, reflecting bearish conditions. Resistance is at 0.9346.

AUD/USD - BEARISH

The pair is under pressure and is approaching support at 0.8771. A move below this would trigger further sell-off towards 0.8545. Resistance is at 0.9076.

USD/CAD- BEARISH

The pair extended its weakness and is trading just above the significant support at 1.0241. Resistance is at 1.3085, which is expected to hold any upside.

EUR/CHF- NEUTRAL

Yesterday the strong support at 1.2313 was tested; a closing break below this would be negative. Resistance is at 1.2354 ahead of 1.2404.

EUR/GBP- BULLISH

The cross is moving higher and approaching the critical resistance at 0.8815. A move above this would further extend its strength. Support is at 0.8704.

EUR/JPY- BULLISH

Weakness since last week tested the critical support at 129.77. With the MACD still above the zero line, the risk is for the resumption of upside. Resistance is at 131.04 ahead of 132.74.

Source: UBS FX Strategy

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Merrill - EUR/USD Topping Zone . Cable Sell Bounces . USD/JPY Stay Bearish

EUR/USD is drawing close to the topping zone against 1.3418, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"A closing break of 1.3166 needed to confirm a top and resumption of the medium term downtrend for 1.2755 (July lows) before the 1.2457 swing target," BofA adds.

Turning to GBP/USD, BofA thinks that the pair has already resumed its medium term bear trend for 1.4783/1.4767 and below following yday’s close below 1.5264.

"BOUNCES SHOULD BE SOLD GOING FORWARD," BofA advises.

Finally for USD/JPY, BofA has been beating the drum about continued weakness in to 93.65/73, potentially 90.91 on the basis of vulnerable $/¥ longs.
A confirmation for these bearish USD/JPY, and GBP/USD views, according to BofA, could be summarized thru GBP/JPY technicals with a closing break of 147.56 completes a 3.5m Head and Shoulders Top, targeting 137.69 before all is said and done.

[Abo Abdullah]

US hedge funds reported buyers of USD/JPY

USD higher across the board, though EUR also showing strength. EUR/USD staying relatively tight

GBP/USD - Bids at 1.5130, stronger at 1.5100 with stops below the big figure

AUD/USD - Stops under .8900 being eyed, though buying ahead of the .8900 barrier still strong

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse - Stay Short EUR/USD For 1.3025 & Short GBP/USD For 1.5050

Credit Suisse maintains its technical tactical short EUR/USD from 1.3300, with a stop at 1.3435, and a target at 1.3025.

"With momentum still deteriorating, we still look for a cap here, and for the trend to turn lower. Removal of 1.3213 is needed for a top to add weight to this view for 1.3166, then back to 1.3128/20 – 38.2% of the July rally," CS projects.

CS also maintains short GBP/USD for 1.5050, with a stop at 1.5329.

"Temporary support has been found at the 50% retracement level at 1.5124, however, a top stays in place for 1.5051/24," CS adds.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD - Bids at 1.3180, stronger at 1.3160 through 1.3150 with stops under the mid figure growing larger.

AUD/USD being sold by a hedge fund aiming for sub-.8900 stops

USD/CAD - Buy stops above those mid-figure-offers in good size

USDCAD - Offers ahead of 1.0350

Overall, sentiment favors risk on with equities strong. USD and EUR showing the most strength and a positive bias while AUD still viewed with negativity. Other currencies still mixed

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - Technicals & Risk Reward Say EUR/USD A Perfect Sell

EUR/USD has attempted to erode the 2013 resistance line at 1.3325 but has not succeeded in doing so, and has reacted lower, notes Commerzbank.

"Directly overhead lies key resistance at 1.3360/1.3417. This is where the 2011-2013 downtrend, the 200 week ma and the June high meet and we look for it to hold the topside and provoke failure," CB projects,

S/T, CB sees current break below 1.3255 alleviates upside pressure and target 1.30.

"Loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 recent low and April low," CB adds.

All in all, CB thinks that EUR/USD around current levels offers selling opportunity for a good risk-reward trade with a target at 1.28 and a stop above the trendline resistance of 1.3325.

As such, CB maintains its short EUR/USD from 1.3275 with a stop at 1.3425. CB plans to adds to this short at 1.3370.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/NZD, & SP500

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group:

EUR/USD: A double 1.3207-1.3345 watch seems justified. The market went higher after a deeper test lower yesterday, but is again falling back from a fresh high – not exactly directionally confident it seems. With more heavy weight data and bigboys’ rate decisions this week more ranging seems likely.

GBP/USD & EUR/GBP: Backdrop sterling weakness is still shining through but the two heavyweight GBP-crosses show some divergence now. EUR/GBP could be interpreted as short-term stretched while having hit the high end of a 21day +/-1.5% price-channel, while GBP/USD is back down in spite of yesterday's bounce off the session’s low. Buy EUR/GBP on hesitation shown below, around the prior 0.8712 high and Sell GBP/USD on a sub-1.5125 break for a 1.5028 attempt.

AUD/NZD: Over 1.1275 should trigger buy-stops. It has been a fast falling knife and a low point for this move is still impossible to pin. But in a micro-term perspective an inverse "Head & shoulders" formation would be confirmed on a break above 1.1275, which would call for 1.1350 as a reaction to the recent excessive move. A high and bullish looking session close after such a reaction may bring wider implications. So as a first attempt; Buy a 1.1275 break with a super-tight stop at 1.1225.

S&P500: Still rangebound. Still stuck in a 1671-1696 range which has to be convincingly broken for a fresh directional cue.

[Abo Abdullah]

Barclays - Quant Signals For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD And Other Majors

The following tables provide the latest FX signals from Barclays Capital quantitative analyzer model.

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/CAD - Buy stops above 1.0330 were cleared, but offers into 1.0350 have set back the rally. Next big offers from 1.0390 through 1.0400, but more buy stops lining up above the big figure

[Abo Abdullah]

Goldman Sachs - EUR/USD FX Spot Desk Report

EUR price action continues to frustrate which is not a new theme but today should be interesting. Yesterday the EUR made new YTD highs on a TWI basis which cannot be what Draghi wanted or envisaged when he unveiled forward guidance at the July ECB meeting. Later I expect him to announce the move to ECB minutes, again reiterate the intent to keep rates anchored but would not be surprised if he used the Q+A to express his displeasure with the currency strength.

The danger is that he will also have to make reference to the improved data and if he talks about reduced downside risks or indeed comes across as balanced let alone optimistic and doesn’t specifically mention the currency then we will squeeze. Given the above balance of outcomes I think the risk–reward of being short into the event is reasonably compelling especially if this can be done in the 1.3280/1.3300 zone.

A tight stop can probably be set above 1.3350 (last nights high 1.3345) but it will be a case of listening to his exact comments and hoping that his language will be sufficiently strong and targeted to allow a sharp move lower. First meaningful support is at yesterdays 1.3207 low, though if the right sound bites are forthcoming we should be looking for a move to last week’s low of 1.3140, I think given already dovish expectations it will be difficult to extend much beyond.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

The following are the latest technical outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by UBS*:

EUR/USD: (Bullish) Yesterday’s sharp sell-off is viewed as a correction to unwind the overextended upside extremes. With the bull trend intact, potential is for the pair to move above 1.3302 to test the key resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3120.

USD/JPY: (Neutral) The pair advanced from the strong support at 96.75. This strength is approaching the resistance at 100.02. A closing break above this would trigger further upside.

GBP/USD: (Neutral) With the MACD threatening to cross below its zero line, focus in on the key support at 1.5051. A closing break below this would be a bearish development. Resistance is at 1.5254.

AUD/USD: (Bearish) The pair is under pressure and is approaching support at 0.8771. A move below this would trigger further sell-off towards 0.8545. Resistance is at 0.8994.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

EU after NFP more CHOP

Mkt had been leaning toward NFP beat but miss softens USD
EUR/USD spikes to 1.3285, macros seller noted there & pair dips
Price back above the 10 DMA & within recent choppy range
More offers into 1.3300 with stops above 1.3310 then 1.3350 barrier
Range unlikely to break unless broad based USD weakness takes hold