== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS Daily FX Report
July 25, 2013 00:36

FX Technicals

EURUSD BULLISH

With the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, focus is on further upside. Key resistance is at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3134 ahead of 1.3052.

USDJPY BULLISH

Any downside will be held by strong support at 98.57, which was held previously on a closing basis. Focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at 103.74.

GBPUSD NEUTRAL

Upside is held by a strong resistance at 1.5394. A closing break above this would be a bullish development. Initial support is at 1.5258 ahead of 1.5171.

USDCHF BEARISH

With the MACD settled below the zero line, our focus is on further downside, with initial support at 0.9323 ahead of 0.9242.Resistance is at 0.9416 ahead of 0.9478.

AUDUSD BEARISH

The pair came under pressure form the strong resistance at 0.9333. With the bear trend intact, focus is for further downside. Initial support is at 0.9121 ahead of 0.8999.

USDCAD BEARISH

The pair extended its weakness and is trading just above the significant support at 1.0241. Resistance is at 1.0349 ahead of 1.0442.

EURCHF BULLISH

Initial resistance is at 1.22404 ahead of the critical 1.2485. A closing break above this would be positive, opening 1.2650. Downside should be limited, with support at 1.2342, which is expected to hold on closing basis.

EURGBP BULLISH

The cross bounced from the support at 0.8570. With the MACD above its zero line, focus is on upside towards 0.8711 and then, 0.8815.

EURJPY BULLISH

We look for further upside towards the key resistance at 133.80. A move above this would open 137.14. Initial support is at 130.77 ahead of 128.02.
Source: UBS FX Strategy

[Abo Abdullah]

JP Morgan Daily FX Report

The markets are still bouncing back and forth within fairly tight ranges without providing any significant breaks which would give us fresh insights where to head next. In terms of the USD though we still see an underlying bull-trend as intact which would only be questioned in case key-resistance zones between 1.3262 and 1.3340 (int. 76.4 %/daily trend) in EUR/USD and between 1.5403 (daily Ichimoku-lagging) and 1.5530-74/1.5603 (int. 76.4 %/200DMA/daily trend) in Cable would be taken out. Below these resistance zones, the risk of accelerating down south to perform internal 3rd wave declines remains very high. R

isk markets have once more extended their latest gains, but coming off after having marked marginally new highs only, is not really very convincing and shows a clear lack of conviction. It however still takes a break below daily trend line support (at 1660 today) in the leading S & P 500 to get 1775 (Fib.-projection) off the radar screen and to raise the idea of having potentially marked a major top.

In terms of the JPY we see an increased risk of having potentially resumed the broader downtrend as the internal 76.4 % retracement in EUR/JPY at 131.75 has clearly been broken. But in order to receive the final confirmation in that direction it would take a decisive break above 101.39 (minor 76.4 %) in USD/JPY. Below, the start window for another recovery move of the JPY (wave C) towards internal 38.2 % retracements at 121.04 (EUR/JPY), at 93.57 (USD/JPY) and at 143.00/142.22 (GBP/JPY) remains open.

This view would however only receive fresh support via breaks below daily trend line supports cutting in at 128.46 (EUR/JPY), at 96.67 (USD/JPY) and at 149.76 (GBP/JPY). In terms of NOK we have seen stabilisation at or around key-supports at 5.8493/75 (daily trend/int. 50 %) in USD/NOK and at 7.7756 (int. 38.2 %) in EUR/NOK yesterday which kept the door open to resume the broader NOK downtrend straight away.

[Abo Abdullah]

Barclays: GBP/USD - Looking for a move to 1.5440 and possible onto the 1.55 handle, followed by a strong top forming and then a return to the multi-month lows near 1.48

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - EUR/USD Bearish Signs In Target Zone. AUD/USD Correction Ended? SP500 More Selling

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Bearish signs in the target zone. Yesterday’s price action with yet another correctional high and another failure to attract any follow through buying is clearly a bearish sign. So is also the fact that in the hourly chart we have shifted from impulsive moves higher and slow declines to the opposite, an indication of a bearish transition. A net down move today will also make stochastic roll over to the downside from its most overbought level since mid June. Above 1.3244 a new high will be confirmed.

AUD/USD: Correction ended Today. The very impulsive rejection from the primary target area, 0.9306/0.9345. has ended the upside correction. The violation of the B-wave low, however not yet sustained, has confirmed that we soon will find ourselves at a fresh trend low. Mid body of yesterday’s falling benchmark candle, 0.9225, will now offer a great opportunity to shorten the pair.

GBP/USD: Possible a premature peak. It’s possible that yesterday’s failure (to reach the 1.5435 target) and bearish candle marked a premature end to the July upward correction. So far we can’t confirm that that’s the case but should the market break 1.5306 today, well then most pieces of evidence will be pointing in that direction.

S&P 500: More selling breaking the line. With a lower high and a relatively impulsive decline the market took out the 1687 support falling down to the target of the hourly head and shoulders top, 1677. The bounce so far looks rather corrective to us hence downside risk remains elevated (unless overcoming 1695). Breaking the June trend line will insert more pressure toward the weekly key support, 1666.

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse Holds long EUR/USD, GBP/USD But Looking To Reverse On Targets

Credit Suisse maintains a technical tactical long EUR/USD position targeting 1.3340 with a stop below 1.3076. CS' plan is to fade further strength in the pair upon hitting target by reversing into short with a stop above 1.3435.

"EURUSD is struggling to make further headway in the range, and the rebound off the July low is looking increasingly stretched. While minor trendline support, now at 1.3133, holds though we still allow for a squeeze a little higher to the 78.6% retracement resistance at 1.3276, next. However, we look for the top end of the range at 1.3342/80 – the trendline from the May 2011 high and the 61.8% retracement barrier – to cap, and would fade strength towards here," CS outlines its technical bias on the pair.

Same for GBP/USD where CS also maintains a long position with a stop below 1.5155, for 1.5530. CS' plan is to reverse this long to a short upon hitting this target with a stop above 1.5603.

"GBPUSD continues to find a ceiling at 1.5394 – the 61.8% retracement of the June/July sell-off – and selling interest continues to emerge here. Back beneath 1.5264/51 though is needed to signal a deeper setback to 1.5178/55, and through here to mark a better failure, for a reversion to 1.5041/24," CS outlines its current bias on the pair.

[Abo Abdullah]

Scotiabank -Buy & Sell Signals For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, & Other FX Spots

The following table shows the latest buy and sell signals for a selection of FX pairs as provided by the technical strategy team at Scotiabank.

[Abo Abdullah]

BNP Paribas - Abstain From Fresh GBP Shorts Ahead Of Aug 1 BoE Meeting

Today's UK release plays to BNP Paribas's view to be strategically short GBP, but wary tactically ahead of August 1st MPC meeting.

"The 0.6% q/q reading was decent, with most of it coming from stronger services. It was a tad softer than our economists forecast of 0.7% q/q, but nevertheless bang in line with what BoE members were assuming in their discussion undertaken in the more “mixed” (not as dovish) set of MPC minutes released on the 17th," BNPP adds.

"Given that this set of minutes (a) increased the odds of forward guidance at the Inflation report but (b) decreased the odds of asset purchases in August (our economists now expect November), the tactical support for GBP should continue. But in the bigger scheme of things, it will not change the BoE view that the UK economy is still far from achieving “escape velocity”, which would anyway necessitate the introduction of forward guidance," BNPP argues

In line with this view, BNPP remains comfortable with the bearish GBP call (holding an August 23 0.8850 EUR/GBP digital call), but would refrain from adding fresh GBP shorts heading into the August 1st BoE meeting.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD - Drifting higher as USD/JPY is sold and approaches the strong offers at 1.3240 from sovereign and Asian accounts

Stops under 99.50 in USD/JPY clearing; good follow through from model funds selling is helping keep downward pressure

US leveraged funds responsible for this move down in USD/JPY, already starting to work through some bids in the area and have their sights set on the stops

[Abo Abdullah]

Societe Generale says - The odds in favor of the short franc trade are gently but steadily rising as the European crisis normalizes,.

"If we do manage to avoid another round of sovereign re-engineering post-German elections, these odds will drastically increase. Once the move does happen the entire USD/CHF curve will move higher as the range of possible paths for USD/CHF increases," SocGen adds.

Moreover, SocGen points to a very interesting observation on the positioning front arguing that hedge funds are consistently betting on a weaker franc awaiting foreign banks to exit their franc longs.

"Foreign banks are heavy long CHF versus USD and EUR (see graph on the right). Swiss asset managers remain very prudent on the outlook for EUR/CHF and are trying to figure out when that break will come, knowing that only the first mover will be able to benefit from the break higher. Hedge funds have been betting on this move consistently," SocGen clarifies.

[Abo Abdullah]

BofA Merrill - What To Trade When The USD Rally Resumes

With US Treasury yields on the edge of resuming their bear trend’ the USD correction is drawing to a close, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch

"HOWEVER, for now, key levels in both EUR/USD, and GBP/USD remain intact. Indeed, short term trendlines at 1.3201 and 1.5313, respectively, are still intact," BofA adds.

"As such for USD bulls, PATIENCE remains the name of the game as the potential for new highs in both EUR/USD, GBP/USD remain before the larger downtrends resume," BofA advises.

Of the two, BofA thinks that GBP/USD remains the better short as EUR/GBP has successfully held the re-test of the Head and Shoulders Bottom neckline at 0.8568, keeping the focus higher for 0.8805/16.

[Abo Abdullah]

Dollar continues slide, USD/JPY breaks 99.50

The dollar can’t find a bid this week.

One area to watch is the bond market. US 10-year yields are up 3 basis points today after rising 8 bps yesterday. The correlation between USD/JPY and US yields has been fairly tight over the past month.

The declines in stocks, bonds and the US dollar over the past 4 days could be a deleveraging trade as banks shore up capital ahead of potential regulatory changes or for some other reason. It could also be traders simply exiting leveraged positions ahead of vacations. Once it stabilizes, look for trades to bounce back.

In USD/JPY there are bids at 99.40/20 but the size is modest. More medium-sized bids at 99.10/00 but the strong demand is around 99.00/98.80.

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/NZD-Technical-analysis.

These are trends that aren’t going to end and the AUD/NZD trend isn’t going to end either. AUD/NZD is in the midst of one of its worst days of the year and has fallen 1280 pips since the March highs. Much of the news is now priced into the pair but it could fall farther, maybe even to parity from 1.14 today.

Looking at the long-term weekly chart, I target the area of support around 1.06-1.08. That’s the measured target from the rough head & shoulders top and the 2008 spike low. I don’t like chasing the pair lower after the fall over the past two days but look for a bounce to sell.

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY - Bids from 99.40 through 99.30 with sell stops underneath

EUR/USD - More offers at 1.3250 with large stops above looking vulnerable

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/USD is throguh offers at 0.9920. More up at 0.9940/50

USD/JPY is testing the session lows and holding so far. More bids down to 99.10

EUR/USD offers extend to 1.3260/80. noted Start offers building from leveraged accounts and Real money ,Talk of a barrier at 1.3275

GBP/USD - Offers at 1.5386 (European high)

[Abo Abdullah]

BofA Merrill - Global FX Forecasts

The following table provides Bank of America Merrill Lynch's global FX forecasts as of July 25, 2013.