== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Daily cloud top help keeps RALLY alive

Rising US yields aid a dip into the cloud but s-t sup near 1.3160/65 holds
Cloud keeps bulls in the game as does rising RSI & waning US yield advantage
Topside capped by ACBs & specs, NY touts stops above the o/n high
S-T names have stops 1.3210 & 1.3225/35, if run corp offers ~1.3250 may cap
Solid resistance near 1.3250/60 for now, if broken June high retest likely

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

The following are the latest technical outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by UBS*:

EUR/USD: (Bullish) Last night the pair closed above the key resistance at 1.3164. A closing break above this was positive opening 1.3417. Support is at 1.3134 ahead of 1.3052.

USD/JPY: (Bullish) Any downside will be held by strong support at 98.57, which was held previously on a closing basis. Focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at 103.74.

GBP/USD: (Neutral) There is a strong resistance at 1.5394. A closing break above this would be a bullish development. Initial support is at 1.5258 ahead of 1.5158.

AUD/USD: (Bearish) With the bear trend intact, focus is for further downside. Initial support is at 0.9138 ahead of 0.8999. There is a strong resistance at 0.9333, which is expected to hold the recent upside move.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Cable challenging 61.8% retracement of the June-July fall

It started out as rebound-Tuesday for the US dollar but traders sized up the size of the rebound and were unimpressed. They`ve responded by slowing unloading dollars and stops are periodically causing breakouts.

Up next could be cable, which has edged through the earlier highs.

The key level on the GBPUSD chart is 1.5394 but offers extend to 1.5410 with buy stops mixed in. More offers at 1.5420 and 1.5440/50.

[AL Ayman]

جزاك الله خيرا أخى .. متابع معك

[Abo Abdullah]

جزاك الله خيرا أخى .. متابع معك

حياك الله يالغالي طمني عن وضع الاسترليني معاك ؟

[hsinjab]

تسلم إيديك أخي أبو عبدالله .. المعلومات والبيانات مفيدة جدا .. جعلها الله في ميزان حسناتك ياطيب

[AL Ayman]

حياك الله يالغالي طمني عن وضع الاسترليني معاك ؟

السعر لا يزال محقق خسارة عندى و أسأل الله العظيم رب العرش العظيم أن يهبط هبوطا
مدويا قبل ضرب المارجن .. آمين
جزاك الله خيرا و بارك الله لك و رزقك بغير حساب أخى أبو عبد الله

[Abo Abdullah]

السعر لا يزال محقق خسارة عندى و أسأل الله العظيم رب العرش العظيم أن يهبط هبوطا
مدويا قبل ضرب المارجن .. آمين
جزاك الله خيرا و بارك الله لك و رزقك بغير حساب أخى أبو عبد الله

ان شاء الله يبعد عنك المارجن ياحبيبي , ونصيحتي لاتأخذ اي صفقه يوم الاثنين الا اخطف واجري كما

يقولون لأن اكثر الاحيان يوم الاثنين يكون لنسميه يوم الاستشعار والافضل تداول يوم الثلاثاء الى الجمعه

الساعه 14GMT وعندها تغلق جميع صفقاتك الا اذا كان السعر ماشي معك اكثر من 50 نقطة فلا

بأس ان تبقيها مع وضع الستوب على الدخول , وفقك الله يا حبيبي .

تسلم إيديك أخي أبو عبدالله .. المعلومات والبيانات مفيدة جدا .. جعلها الله في ميزان حسناتك ياطيب

الله يبارك فيك يالغالي ونورت الموضوع يالحبيب , وفقك الله ورزقك خير الدارين ان شاء الله .

[Abo Abdullah]

[NEW YORK July 23, 2013 19:58 GMT] Europe saw tight ranges although bears held an edge as ACB selling & rising US yields kept EUR/USD bulls at bay. It sat near 1.3170 at NY’s open. USD strength from o/n began to wane as yields slipped from session highs & USD/JPY began giving up gains from Europe. Leveraged funds were noted buyers of EUR against USD & AUD and aided a lift higher from the open. Weaker than f/c Richmond Fed Mfg & May house price data combined with better than f/c EZ July consumer confidence to speed up EUR/USD’s lift. USD/JPY’s give back of most gains fueled EUR/USD’s rally & aided to run 1.3210 & 1.3225/35 stops before hitting a session high of 1.3239. Late day profit taking had it near 1.3220 into the close. Bulls are encouraged as the daily cloud top provides a base, daily RSI is biased up with room to run & the USD’s yield advantage slips further. The next hurdle to overcome is the June 21 high (1.3255). Solid offers are touted into that level but stops are just above. If cleared a retest of the June highs could be coming but the mkt will then have to be on alert for ECB rhetoric looking to soften EUR once again. (CR) Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

[Abo Abdullah]

Australian data today – this is a big one

The Australian CPI for Q2 is released today (0130GMT) – this is a very important focus for the market as it will be strongly indicative of whether the RBA will ease or not (according to the market).

Market consensus is that a CPI result at or below expectations will give the RBA increased scope to ease at their next meeting (August 6). OIS pricing has a 65% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the next meeting. I gotta go out on a limb and say I’m not in the “expecting a cut” camp. But if the CPI comes in below expectations I’ll reassess. What I think doesn’t really matter though – what’s important is market consensus and how the AUD responds to today’s release.

We only get official CPI results in Australia 4 times a year, not monthly as in nearly all other developed economies.
•Q2 CPI, expected +0.5% q/q, prior +0.5%
•Q2 CPI, expected +2.5% y/y, prior +2.5%
•Q2 CPI, trimmed mean (the measure the RBA pays most attention to), expected +0.5% q/q, prior +0.3%
•Q2 CPI, trimmed mean, expected +2.1% y/y, prior +2.2% y/y

[Abo Abdullah]

China data due today – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI

At 0145GMT we get the July flash reading for the HSBC manufacturing PMI.
•Expected is 48.2, and prior was 48.2

This release comes 15 minutes after the Australian Q2 CPI release and will be an important market focus also.
•China growth has been weakening
•Chinese authorities have been perceived as saying that growth will not be permitted to fall below 7% (i.e that there will be some sort of stimulus enacted should growth weaken further)
•The HSBC survey is viewed with more trust than official figures (but it does measure its PMI differently to the official)

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - AUD/USD Bid In A Range: Buy At 0.9175 Or Sell At 0.9350

AUD/USD has held broadly sideways for over one month which serves the purpose of neutralizing the momentum indicators and giving time for the market to absorb its recent losses, says Commerzbank.

"While capped by key resistance at .9388/.9404 (the 2011 low and highs from 2009 and 2010) our negative bias is entrenched. To trigger another leg lower we suspect that the market will need to sustain a break back below .9000," CB adds.

"Short term we note that the intraday charts are suggesting that the current correction higher should reach the .9400 region, but should then struggle. Longer term the close below .9147 which has been seen recently is bearish and we consider that the next target of .8550 is engaged," CB outlines both of its s/t and l/t bias on the pair.

In line with this view, CB advises clients to attempt tiny AUD/USD longs on dips into 0.9175 with a stop at 0.9135 or shorts on bounce into 0.9350 with a stop over 0.9490.

[Abo Abdullah]

EU UPTREND in play 1.3260 next stop

Profit taking & higher U.S. yields in Europe -1.3164 touched - now support
Soft Richmond Manuf data & better but weak EZ consumer conf supported
New 1.3239 high recorded - targets 1.3261 test, 76.4% of Jun/Jul fall
5, 10 & 20 dma's trend higher with momentum studies

[Abo Abdullah]

Asia Market Report

Market Briefing

•Key events coming ahead for NZD, AUD, and JPY that could be turning points for them
•NZD so far has very positive outlook as it's not heavily influenced by QE or similar governement policies
•AUD and JPY generally negative (though AUD has been squeezing shorts fairly regularly lately) given their economic situation and government policy
•USD's outlook still negative as US 10yr yields don't show signs of rallying soon

------------------------------------------------------------
USD/JPY
•Offers at 100.00 up to 100.20
•Buy stops above 100.20 in good size
•Bids at 99.30 scattered down to 99.10, strong at 99.00
•Sell stops under the big figure large

NZD/USD
•Offers still at .8000 and up to .8010
•Buy stops quite large above .8010
•Bids strong at .7950 and .7900
•Sell stops under both bid levels

AUD/USD
•Offers remain heavy ahead of .9300 and more offers at .9350
•Buy stops above the big figure also large
•Bids at light at .9270 and stronger into .9200
•Sell stops under the big figure in good size

KEY NEWS
•Japanese data all due at 23:50 GMT:
•Adjusted Trade Balance expected -0.58T
•Exports (YoY) expected 10.3%
•Imports (YoY) expected 13.6%
•Trade Balance forecast -161B
•Australian data all due at 1:30 GMT:
•CPI (QoQ) consensus at 0.5%
•CPI (YoY) consensus at 2.5%
•CPI Index Number previous 102.40
•Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) expectations at 0.5%
•Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) expectations at 2.2%
•Weighted Mean CPI (QoQ) forecast for 0.5%
•Weighted Mean CPI (YoY) forecast for 2.4%
•Chinese release due at 1:45 GMT:
•HSBC Manufacturing PMI expected in at 48.6

Pay close attention to how these data affect the market: it's a big day for those currencies!