== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Brief - London

[LONDON 10:42 GMT July 23] EUR/USD ran into stiff resistance around 1.3200, ACBs said the sellers after macro funds bought. Specs came off second best, perhaps because buy stops are now much harder to come by, following a multi day short-squeeze. If the squeeze has reached its limit, fundamentals may reassert their influence. In that respect a bid for dollars does seem to have been timed alongside a renewed rise for U.S. bond yields (10 year 2.51%). Buyers are now seen clustered around the hourly Ichimoku cloud top and 100-HMA circa 1.314045, while the 200-HMA @ 1.3109 is eyed pivotal with good bids in advance but stops noted below, mainly under 1.3100. A data free session in the U.S., but event risk rises sharply Wednesday with euro zone PMIs and Thursday Germany's IFO. jeremy.boulton at thomsonreuters com Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

[Abo Abdullah]

Foreign central banks yen assets at highest for 10 years

BOJ releases a report on Foreign central bank holdings.
•Holdings rose 8.6% to ¥47.8tn end of 2012
•Bonds account for ¥45.7 tn of the total.
•Holdings increased by 26% in 2011

Takahiro Sekido, a strategist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi says that yen denominated assets are going to increase as CB’s spread risk.

It’s possible they will increase their holdings if the euro-debt crisis re-ignites

The figures show that the yen is still widely held as a safe haven currency and that it may also attract further flows from investors as the economy picks up.

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/CAD - Asian sovereign bids have capped the earlier slide to 1.0320; offers now seen at 1.0350 and 1.0370 with stops through 1.0380

NZD/USD - bids seen at 0.7950 and 0.7920 with sell stops building beneath these levels; good supply expected again at 0.80

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/JPY - offers seen at 132.00 with buy stops building above through 132.20; demand noted at 131.50 and 131.20

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/CAD – Offers at 1.0350 in good size ,also with Asian sovereign demand at 1.0300

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD - offers from short-term specs clustered between 1.32 and 1.3220 with buy stops above; macro fund and corporate offers at 1.3250

GBP/USD - CTA accounts noted buyers, bids at 1.5325; offers at 1.54 with buy stops above1.5405/10

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - EUR/USD Absolute Minimum Target Met .. GBP/USD Seeking Short .. SP500 Almost There

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: An absolute minimum target met. The market yesterday, for a short while, rose from its comfort zone to print the sought 1.3209+ high before again returning into the doldrums. The move has fulfilled the minimum criteria for a completed upside reaction but as long as not returning below 1.2992 (or at least 1.3066) a downside turn cannot be confirmed. Should the market choose to continue north then possible turning points to be found at 1.3257 and/or 1.3275.

GBP/USD: Soon time to seek a new short. After yesterday’s surge the market has come close to the ideal upside correction target, 1.5435, the point where wave C equals A in size, a common correctional relationship. So look for a possible final move up to 1.5435 and then a downside turnaround.

USD/JPY: Bearish candle on top. Both USDJPY & EURJPY printed bearish candles yesterday, indicating an end to the recent rise. For USDJPY we do however need a break below 98.88 to further enhance our view of a possible dip down to the 97.20 (95.40) as part of the larger bull triangle we are looking for. For today watch out for offers/sellers around yesterdays mid body point, 100.23.

S&P 500: Almost there. The next target, the 161.8% Fibo projection point, 1602, is now only a whisker away. Given that we now see the shortest of the momentum indicators in a pre divergence position it is probably wise to consider taking some profit on longs. Signs of longer term overstretches are also due, for example the spread between spot and the 233w ma is now close to record levels (not seen since 1999) and 20m Bollinger band top penetrated.

[Abo Abdullah]

EURJPY - Running into strong sell interest , More offers at 132.20/50

[Abo Abdullah]

As USD/JPY rallies, corporate accounts are noted as buying those highs

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/USD - Stops from .9300 through .9320 in good size. Offers in front of .9350, but more stops above that mid figure

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/CAD - Stops under 1.0310 cleared as CAD strengthens across the board on this data

USD/CAD - Sovereign bids at 1.0300 now cleared and stops underneath being worked through

USD/CAD - More stops through 1.0280 and next bid level at 1.0250

EUR/AUD - US leveraged funds closing out short positions, adding some buying pressure

[Abo Abdullah]

US Market Report

EUR/USD
•Bids at 1.3150 and 1.3120
•Stops beneath those levels, larger sub-1.31
•Offers from short-term specs from 1.32 to 1.3220; macro and corporate offers @ 1.3250
•Buy stops from s/t names above 1.3220 in good size; more above the mid figure

GBP/USD
•Bids seen at 1.5320/25 and in better size at 1.5280
•Sell stops through 1.5320 and sub-1.53
•Offers at 1.54; no large offers noted to the topside
•Buy stops above 1.54 through 1.5410

USD/JPY
•Bids accumulating again at 99.50 and 99.20
•Sell stops at 99.40 and larger sub-99.00
•Offers noted at 100.20, 100.50 and larger ahead of the 101.00 level
•Buy stops above 100.20 and at 100.60; large above 101.00

AUD/USD
•Demand seen at 0.9220, 0.9180 and larger around 0.9140/50
•Sell stops sub-0.9180 with momentum funds looking to sell break of 0.9170 level
•Offers at 0.9280 to 0.93; good size up to 0.9310
•Buy stops in the mix from 0.9310 to 0.9320 and more at 0.9330

EUR/JPY
•Bids at 131.50, 131.20 and 130.80
•Sell stops through 131.10
•Offers at 132.00 to 132.20 and 132.50
•Buy stops above the big figure through 132.20

[Abo Abdullah]

Options Expiries for the NY Cut (10:00AM ET)

USD/JPY - 99.75, 100.00, 100.25

EUR/USD - 1.3200, 1.3160, 1.3150

GBP/USD - 1.5300

AUD/USD - .9250, .9265

USD/CHF - .9385

AUD/JPY - 92.00
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EUR/USD – Large stops noted from 1.3210 through 1.3230

AUD/USD - Sell stops from US specs clustering below .9220

[Abo Abdullah]

Canadian dollar breaks key levels after roaring retail sales report – technical analysis

USD/CAD traded to a one-month low of 1.0299 following the strongest retail sales report in nearly 3 years.

Besides briefly breaking through 1.0300, the pair broke the 55-day moving average, the July 11 and the 61.8% retracement of the June-July rally. That points to an extended decline to 1.0137. Initial support is at the 100-day moving average at 1.0269.

Overall, after taking a thrashing yesterday the US dollar has hardly bounced today. That’s a sign that more US dollar declines are coming.