== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

HSBC - Yen Bears Trapped...But For How Long

HSBC thinks that the upcoming G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors (19/20 July) should hold less relevance for the JPY than previous get-togethers.

"At this G20, JPY weakness is unlikely to be such a talking point, and Japan’s absence from the communiqué cannot be an excuse for further JPY selling," HSBC argues.

All in all, HSBC holds the view that this stickiness in USD/JPY will persist in the near term.

"This creates value in selling the JPY crosses, with many other currencies expected to decline against the USD," HSBC advises.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR Briefing - New York

[NEW YORK July 17, 2013 20:00 GMT] Europe slumbered as they awaited BB’s testimony. NY opened the pair near 1.3145 & an early dip had the pair near 1.3130 into BB’s press release. The statements on asset buys being adjustable according to data & labor participation drops making rate rises unlikely put the USD under pressure. EUR/USD spiked to 1.3179. The EUR/USD lift was aided by soft US housing data released simultaneously. No further gains were made though as Asian & leverage offers sitting 1.3180/00 prevented further gains. Large HFs taking profit on USD shorts quickly reversed the USD slide. EUR/USD sank from the highs to test s-t support & the 200 DMA near 1.3080/90. The support held. The pair then lifted off the NY lows and ignored Fitch’s downgrade of French banks & touched intra-day resistance near 1.3160 before settling near 1.3125 at close. Bulls may still have the upper hand as the pair closes above the 200 DMA in as many days and the USD again loses some yield advantage. A clear break above 1.3200 is needed for them to gain full control of this pair & open a retest of the June highs. (Christopher Romano) Copyright (c) 2013 Tho

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Tight range expected in Asia

Tapering data driven & soft housing figures saw 1.3179 tested - now res
Leveraged money capped - longs squeezed - touched 1.3083 - now sup
Opens -0.27% - momentum studies are neutral - ma's conflict
Subdued response to Bernanke suggests tight ranges in Asia
U.S. data will now be the focus for clues on next move

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - EUR/USD Still In No Man's Land; Get Ready To Sell

EUR/USD continues its choppy price action within the 1.2940-1.3275 limits with charts suggesting that there is scope for a move towards the 1.3208 high (charted on the 11th July) but failure ahead of Fibonacci retracement at 1.3275, says Commerzbank.

"We look for the more important resistance at 1.3386/1.3422 to hold – this is the 2011-2013 downtrend, the 200 week ma and the June high. While capped here an overall downside bias will persist." CB projects.

"Dips are currently indicated to hold very near term in the 1.2985/40 band. Loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 recent low and April low," CB adds.

In line with this view, CB advises clients to get ready to sell the pair at 1.3180, and 1.3250 with a stop at 1.3280.

[Dr_hodhod]

رائع ياابو عبدالله .

والجميل ان قراءة كلماتك ممتعة للغاية . موضوع ولااروع .

[Abo Abdullah]

Asia Market Report

EUR/USD
•Weighed heavy from Bank of Italy's comments while also suffering the chop that USD did across the board
•Offers at 1.3170, 1.3200
•Buy stops above 1.3180
•Bids at 1.3080, 1.3050
•Sell stops below 1.3070

AUD/USD
•Strong offers at .9300
•Buy stops large above .9310
•Bids in good size at .9190, more bids at .9150
•Sell stops below .9180

USD/JPY
•Offers large ahead of 100.00
•Buy stops above 100.00 also large
•Decent bids at 99.00 down to 98.90
•Sell stops below 98.80

AUD/JPY
•Offers at 92.20 and 92.50
•Buy stops above 92.30 through 92.50
•Bids at 91.50 and 91.00
•Sell stops below 91.40

EUR/JPY
•Offers at 131.40
•Buy stops above 131.50
•Bids at 130.30 and stronger at 130.00
•Sell stops below the big figure in good size

NZD/USD
•Offers at .7940
•Buy stops growing larger above .7950
•Bids light at .7900 through .7890, in better size ahead of .7830
•Sell stops beow .7870 and .7830

[Abo Abdullah]

رائع ياابو عبدالله .

والجميل ان قراءة كلماتك ممتعة للغاية . موضوع ولااروع .

انت الاروع يالغالي وبارك الله فيك ووفقك ورزقك

[Abo Abdullah]

EU retest RESISTANCE

Resistance too strong from April / May highs at 1.3180 / 1.3200
Retest of this area has seen another pullback develop
50 / 200 day MA support at 1.3050/80 likely to be tested again
Daily closes below 1.30 round number support will put bears in control
Bulls should wait for daily closes above 1.32 to re-enter longs

[Abo Abdullah]

JP Morgan: How Much Of A USD Retracement Can Develop Before M/T Trends Resume

One of the key questions in the FX markets right now is how much of a USD retracement can develop before the medium term trends resume.

In this regard, JP Morgan points to the key support levels which remain well-defined starting with the 81.50/81.35 zone for the DXY which represents the 76.4% retracement of the rally from the June low, as well as the 200-day moving average.

"Also, EUR/USD sees important resistance at the 1.3250/60 area (76.4% retrace), before the critical 1.3418 June peak. A violation of these levels would imply a more defensive short term bias for the USD while also reasserting the broad medium term consolidation phase," JPM adds.

"The broad topping pattern for EUR/USD below the February high is in line with this setup. A violation of the 1.28/1.2745 zone which includes the medium term range lows and the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern would imply a deeper pullback initially into the 1.25/1.2435 zone," JPM projects

[Abo Abdullah]

HSBC - Trading In A Jittery Market: Buy USD Dips Now

The ongoing USD sell-off provides a fresh opportunity for establishing long USD positions at better levels, says HSBC.

"In particular, we would favour buying it against the EUR, the GBP and the CAD. Gains versus the AUD are likely to be more modest, while we would expect the JPY and scandies to keep pace with the USD," HSBC advises.

HSBC retains its sell EUR-USD position, targeting 1.2450 with a stop at 1.3280

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/CAD - bids at 1.0350 with sell stops through 1.0320; offers seen at 1.0450 with buy stops in good size located above

GBP/USD - Larger offers at 1.5250/60 with buy stops building above

EUR/USD - Asian account offers noted at 1.3130

AUD/JPY - Caught in a rather tight range; stops building on both sides - above 92.10 and sub-91.50; despite weak AUD, path of least resistance seems upside

NZD/USD - Bids at 0.7840 and 0.78 with stops building beneath the big figure; offers lined up at 0.79 and 0.7920

USD/JPY - Strong demand, stops above 100.50 likely to get triggered soon

EUR/JPY - Upside momentum building; sizeable stops above the mid figure - model funds looking to buy if it breaks; rally towards 132.00 then likely

AUD - Weak this morning and stops sub-0.91 looking vulnerable; selling rallies preferred strategy - solid offers at 0.9180 and 0.92 will provide resistance

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Brief - London

[10:22 GMT July 18] An Incredibly slow session in the wake of another Bernanke speech. Asian specs were the mainstay of flows. Having sold short on the back of ACB sales (1.3120) in their session, Asian specs were buying the dip towards 1.3090 in Europe. Macro sellers thus met decent support and were not able to get to 1.3080 stops. A gradual drift higher followed but 1.3020+-25 stops were also left untouched. EUR/JPY buying (tech led) was a steady factor underpinning the main euro pairing . EUR/AUD demand was followed by selling as specs flipped around in a fairly illiquid market, causing some churning in EUR/USD. jeremy.boutlon at thomsonreuters com Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

[Abo Abdullah]

EU techs scope remains to the DOWNSIDE

Short-term bias on the down-side for the 200-dma @1.3079
Market has repeatedly failed to sustain the break above the 1.3164 level
1.3164 is 61.8% of 1.3417-1.2755 down-leg
Element of caution is advised, however, as daily momentum positive

[Abo Abdullah]

Citi Adds More EUR/USD Downside Exposure To Its G10 Portfolio

Citibank added further EUR downside exposure to its G10 FX portfolio this week. Citi's rationale behind this new position is as follows:

"Recently weaker economic data out of the US has weighed on the USD, giving back post taper-talk gains with FOMC members still determined to anchor short-term interest rates. Even if the economic data were to surprise on the upside in the Eurozone this may be offset by a somewhat more activist ECB, with recent introduction of forward guidance targeting the run up in money market rate," Citi argues.

"While the EUR-USD 2y rate spread could continue to tighten, with investors pricing a greater probability of another rate cut, we suspect the Fed’s attempt at a ‘dovish taper’ and softer US data could keep EURUSD range bound in the coming months," Citi adds.

And here are the details of the new trade:

"We are adding a 2m (16-Sept-13) 1.28 European digital EURUSD put with a 4-week (13-Aug-13) RKO at 1.2650 with a 2% risk weight to our leveraged portfolio. The structure costs 13.6% (Spot ref 1.3120), offering a maximum payout of 6.4x premium."

[Abo Abdullah]

Real money account noted seller of GBP/USD; offers in good size at 1.5250