== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

الف شكر اخي العزير...رمضان كريم

نورت الموضوع يالغالي وكل عام وانت بخير ان شاء الله

[Abo Abdullah]

JP Morgan - EUR/USD: Key Drivers & Forecasts

"EUR/USD targets are unchanged into year end (1.30 for Q3 and Q4) to signal that the currency will remain trendless, as it has been for most of the year. The crossrates should show more movement: the euro should rise by year-end versus JPY (December EUR/JPY target 1.37) but fall versus the Swiss franc (EUR/CHF 1.22), Swedish krona (EUR/SEK 8.65) and Polish zloty (EUR/PLN 4.20). EUR/GBP has overshot the year-end forecast of 0.85 by about 2%, but we are keeping the forecast unchanged since currency markets already discount fairly dovish rate guidance from the Bank of England when it details its framework with the August 7 Inflation Report...Two caveats apply, however. One is that the Fed will not begin rate normalisation for two more years, so a lower euro this year requires US data to be consistently strong enough to push Treasury yields higher every month; otherwise the euro will be stable. The other is that money markets already discount a decent US rate advantage in coming years – 35bp by mid-2015 , 80bp by mid-2016 and 120bp by mid-2017 – so some of this Fed/ECB crossover is in the price. Thus we continue to expect a range-bound euro this year and save the bearish euro projections for the longer horizon when Fed tightening is closer."

John Normand & Thomas Anthonj - JP Morgan

[Abo Abdullah]

Barclays' Trade Of The Week - Sell EUR/USD

Investors following short term macro strategies should consider selling EUR/USD this week, advises Barclays Capital in its weekly FX pick to clients.

"We remain bearish on EUR/USD given our view on the relative monetary policy outlook between the Fed and the ECB. Our below-consensus forecast for flash PMIs and German IFO this week and the resurgence of political uncertainty in peripheral countries (ie, Italy, Spain, and Portugal) will also likely weigh on the EUR," Barclays says as a rationale behind this call.

Another catalysts for this bearish EUR/USD view, according to Barclays, is that the market will come to the realization that the "tapering story" will kick off sooner than later.

"We do not think that recent remarks by Chairman Bernanke signal that the Fed will back off from its baseline case of tapering by year-end, and the path toward an eventual withdrawal of stimulus remains intact given our expectation that US growth will pick up in H2 2013, albeit at a modest pace of 2%, after softer-than-expected growth in Q2 (ie, our Q2 GDP tracking currently stands at 0.5%, against our official forecast of 1.5%, with net exports and inventories acting as major drags)," Barclays clarifies.

"We think that the modest pickup in cyclical activity and inflation and steady improvement in labor market conditions will be sufficient for the Fed to start tapering its asset purchases and expect the USD bullish trend to gather momentum into year-end as the contrast in monetary policy stance between the Fed and the rest of the world becomes even clearer. We would use any pullback in USD as an opportunity to enter structural long USD positions," Barclays adds.

In its macro portfolio, Barclays already maintains a tactical short EUR/USD position from 1.3066, with a stop at 1.3280 and target of 1.27.

[AL Ayman]

بارك الله فيك أخى أبو عبد الله .. الحمد لله أغلقت على نقطة الدخول تقريبا .. و قمت بالرد على الخاص
جزاك الله خيرا على إهتمامك يا أخى المبارك الكريم .. وفقك الله و رزقك بغير حساب يا رب

[Abo Abdullah]

بارك الله فيك أخى أبو عبد الله .. الحمد لله أغلقت على نقطة الدخول تقريبا .. و قمت بالرد على الخاص
جزاك الله خيرا على إهتمامك يا أخى المبارك الكريم .. وفقك الله و رزقك بغير حساب يا رب

الحمد لله يالغالي والله افرحتني كثيرا والله يبعد عنك وعن جميع المسلمين المارجن بحق هذا الشهر الفضيل

ووفقك الله ورزقك ان شاء الله.

[Abo Abdullah]

Gold opening strongly in Asia

Next level of resistance is just below $1350

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Early tight RANGE - modest UPSIDE bias

Portugal kicks can down the road - [ID:nL6N0FR0NN] - a positive factor
Quiet EUR start in Asia - focus on Japanese election - EUR/JPY flow key
Over a week of consolidation within Jul 11th range
Momentum studies positive, ma's conflict - Bolli's expanding
Expect tight range in Asia - minor topside bias

[Abo Abdullah]

EU stops above 1.3200 in sights

Weekly chart shows historical importance of 1.32 level
Consolidation between 1.30-1.32 sets up for next rally leg
Stops above 1.32 likely to see quick run towards prior high at 1.34
200 week MA - third attempt to break above may be successful

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Main Economic, Interest Rate & FX Forecasts - Westpac

The following tables provide the latest economic, interest rate, and FX forecasts by Westpac Banking Group.

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Brief - London

[10:13 GMT July 22] EUR/USD edged higher in the European session. Recent moves in FX have tended to run against the core of speculative positioning, and today’s EUR/USD is no different. The short-squeeze has been underpinned by bullish techs, and today drew additional impetus on the back of slightly easier bond yields in the euro zone periphery. Purported ACB offers around 1.3180, slowed, but did not put a stop to the rally (1.3191 high). Large 1.3200 expiries are very likely to influence in the very short-term. However, whilst specs are talking of the profits to be made top-picking, they are selling with close by stops, above post Bernanke peaks at 1.3208. Those may well prove to be magnetic. jeremy.boulton@

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Cloud top keeps Specs ALIVE

Earlier break of cloud top sees spike up, top just tested & holds
S-T spec stops 1.3155/50 safe as Chicago Fed data softens USD a bit
Bulls encouraged buy rising RSI & USD losing some yield advantage
Rally may persist as area near 1.3200 & above becomes attractive
Large strikes at 1.32 & good sized stops 1.3210/20 become magnetic soon
1.32 break opens 1.3300 test, Chart: http://link.reuters.com/dut79t

[Abo Abdullah]

US Market Report

EUR/USD
•Bids at 1.3150 and in better size at 1.3120
•Sell stops building beneath 1.3120, larger sub-1.31 through 1.3090
•Offers at 1.32 and larger at 1.3250
•Buy stops sizeable above 1.32 through 1.3215

GBP/USD
•Bids building now at 1.5280 and 1.5250
•Sell stops from s/t specs sub-1.5250
•Offers at 1.5350 and 1.5380
•Buy stops above 1.53 taken out, now seen above the mid figure

USD/JPY
•Solid bids at 99.50/60 from Japanese names
•More demand at 99.20 and 99.00
•Light sell stops sub-99.80, larger beneath 99.50 and 99.00
•Offers at 100.20 and 100.50
•Buy stops accumulating above 100.20 and the mid figure; large beyond 101.00

AUD/USD
•Bids at 0.9170, 0.9150 and good size from 0.9120 to 0.91
•Sell stops growing larger beneath 0.9140
•Offers 0.9220 and in better size from 0.9280 to 0.93
•Buy stops heavy above 0.93 through 0.9310

EUR/JPY


•Bids at 131.20 to 131.00 and in solid size at 130.50
•Sell stops 130.90 and better size sub-130.50
•Offers noteable at 132.50
•Buy stops through 132.10; rather light

KEY NEWS
•14:00 GMT (10:00 EST) - US Existing Home Sales

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse FX Technical Outlook Levels

GBPUSD above 1.5305 would open the door to a more significant recovery.

EURUSD stays bullish for a break above 1.3208 to test the range highs at 1.3342/1.3418, where we would look to turn sellers again.

USDJPY has been capped by trendline resistance at 100.88, leaving prices locked in a near-term converging range.

AUDUSD spotlight stays on key resistance at .9285/.9346.

NZDUSD recovery risks stay in place for now, but we look for the .80548/63 price/61.8% retracement barrier to cap.

USDCHF remains biased for a push below .9359 to test .9263, with solid support seen at .9159/30.