== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

As expected, today's short-term sentiment was driven by stop hunts and short-term impact of a news release; so far the USD has weakened on the data but is coming off of its lows for the session

Nikkei futures down 1.35% on the day so far; this downward pressure helping weigh on USD/JPY

Fitch suggests US housing growth is likely to stagnate in the second half of 2013

USD/CAD – Large stops noted under the 1.0320 level

EUR/JPY - Stops under 131.00; bids ahead of the big figure

[Abo Abdullah]

Scotiabank - GBP/USD, USD/JPY, & Other FX Spots

The following table shows the latest buy and sell signals for a selection of FX pairs as provided by the technical strategy team at Scotiabank.

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Agricole - What To Buy And What To Sell Now? FX Trades- Quant Models

The following table provides the latest implied FX trades (multi-weeks view) as generated from Credit Agricole's quantitative models.

[Abo Abdullah]

Goldman Sachs - Market Movers To Follow Closely This Week

The following is a list of the global risk events which Goldman Sachs expects to have a significant impact on the FX market for the rest of this week. Each event comes along with GS' forecast and the market consensus if available.

Tuesday, 23 July

Euro Area Consumer Confidence (July): consensus at -18.3, previous -18.

Wednesday, 24 July

China Flash PMI (July): consensus at 48.5, previous 48.2

Euro Area Flash PMIs (July) Australia CPI (Q2): GS: +0.5%, consensus at +0.5% qoq, previous +0.4% qoq

New Zealand RBNZ MPC: GS in line with consensus, expect policy unchanged at 2.5%

US New Home Sales (June): GS: 3.0%, consensus at +1.7%, previous +2.1%

Thursday, 25 July

US Durable Goods Orders (June): GS: 3.0%, consensus at +1.2% mom, previous +3.7% mom

UK GDP (Q2): consensus at +1.4% yoy, previous +0.3% yoy

Friday, 26 July

US U Michigan Consumer Confidence (July, final): GS: 85.0, consensus at 84.0, previous 83.9

Japan CPI (June): consensus at +0.1% yoy, previous -0.3% yoy

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - cautious on EUR/USD and GBP/USD trades

Analysts at UBS are out with a note recommending heading to the sidelines in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

They key EUR/USD level they’re watching on a closing basis is 1.3164 which is the 61.8% retracement from June to July. A close above could pave the way to 1.3417, they say.

In cable, they say a close above 1.5283 (which is likely at this point with spot at 1.5363) would point to modest further gains toward resistance at 1.5394.

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/CAD hit some sell stops as it broke below 1.0330 and the July low of 1.0326. The 61.8% retracement of the June-July gain is the next support level at 1.0317.

The US dollar selling is a tough puzzle to piece together. The market is looking at the Fed and saying it will be tough to taper. Corporations continue to miss on revenues and McDonald’s warned about weak consumers today. That said, growth everywhere is weak and nothing in emerging markets suggests a boom in the commodity currencies.

I tend to think of this as a squeeze but it’s getting harder to maintain faith. One of the great parts of technical analysis is that it enforces discipline. When all the USD technicals start to point toward more weakness, it’s no time to fight it.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD hits one-month high after soft existing home sales

The breakout is fueling broader US dollar weakness and commodity gains. EUR/USD resistance is light up to 1.3400 but there are offers at 1.3225/30 and larger offers at 1.3250/60.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/CHF heading for the buy zone

Since coming off from the 1.24′s the pair has struggled to the topside and has tended to follow the fortunes of USD/JPY to a certain extent.

The 55 dma has capped the upside today and we are pushing towards the lows at 1.2325 on 17 July.

We’re also approaching a short term support line at 1.2343. I don’t hold that much to short term trendlines and given the short space of time since we last touched, would suggest that it won’t hold.

Below here is the 100 dma at 1.2308 and then it’s 1.2300 where we may find a batch of buyers waiting (me being one).

Levels to note.

Resistance
•1.2400/03 strong res
•1.2382 res, 55 h4ma
•1.2367/74 , 100 h4ma, 55 dma

Support
•1.2349 sup
•1.2343 support line
•1.2333/36 sup, 200 h4ma
•1.2325 strong sup
•1.2315 sup
•1.2308 100 dma
•1.2286 strong sup

We still holding our core longs from sub 1.22 and offloaded some of my 1.23′s at 1.24. I still think the profitable trade is to start picking up from 1.23 all the way down and take profit from 1.23 trades above 1.24 by trailing a stop when we break above.

It gives you the perfect opportunity to bank some profit while maintaining and increasing a core position.

[Abo Abdullah]

FX Heatmap (vs USD): Silver and Gold dominating, up 5.45% and 3.00% respectively; JPY and AUD also strong, both up around 1.05%; next in line we have GBP and NZD posting decent gains around +0.60%; finally CHF, EUR, and CAD slightly up (+0.45%)

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - Finally Sold EUR/USD From 1.3175; Will Add At 1.3250

Commerzbank has finally pulled the trigger on a technical tactical short EUR/USD position that has been planning for more than a week. CB sold EUR/USD today at 1.3175 with a stop at 1.3280 (no target yet placed on this call). CB plans to add to this short at 1.3250.

"We should see failure ahead of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3275. Dips are currently indicated to hold very near term in the 1.2985/40 band. Loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 recent low and April low," CB says as a rationale behind this call.

"While further chopping around within the 1.2940-1.3275 limits is likely we look for the more important resistance at 1.3373/1.3415 to hold. This is where the 2011-2013 downtrend, the 200 week ma and the June high meet. While capped here, an overall downside bias will persist," CB adds.

[Abo Abdullah]

Signs of sychronicity pointing to further US dollar weakness in the FX market today

61.8, 55 and July 11 are the magic numbers in the forex market today.
1.On just above every cross, the US dollar is threatening or has already broken the 61.8% retracement of the June-July moves
2.The 55-day moving average has broken or threatened on a number of crosses
3.The US dollar has broadly broken the July 11 highs/lows. That day was a massive USD squeeze late in the day on dovish comments from Bernanke. At the time, it was seen as way overdone but that’s not proving to be the case.

Here are the charts with the key fibonacci level and 55dma:

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/USD - Trapped shorts were stopped out around the .9250 level, but the rally ran into strong offers at .9270. Heavy selling interest ahead of .9300 as outlook and sentiment remain overall negative, though short squeezes have been frequent

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD - A strong rally today was able to push through the sovereign offers at the 1.3200 area and clear stops above, but selling rallies remains the preferred strategy with economic and political outlook from the Eurozone still negative

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD –Banks Start demand building noted at 1.3150/40 in good size