== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Merrill - Global Economic, Interest Rate, & FX Forecasts -

The following tables provide Bank of America Merrill Lynch's latest global economic, interest rate, and FX forecasts.

[Abo Abdullah]

Citi - Why Selling EUR Is A Hard Slog

Despite running a sizable EUR downside exposure in its macro portfolio, Citibank acknowledges that going short on the single currency is a sort of a 'hard slog' these days.
Citi outlines 5 main factors behind this view:
First, short term FX positioning is already stretched to the downside.
Second: Swaps spreads have been rallying for EUR, despite peripheral spreads widening.
Third: For EUR/USD to reach 1.28 the differential between 2y Bunds & Treasuries needs to fall nearly 7bps.
Fourth: Flow back into EUR assets from abroad is one of EUR’s main sources of support. EM-oil countries are the only EM reserve managers seeing positive reserve accumulation once you adjust for valuation effects.
Fifth: Cash selling is a matter of who else can load up on shorts.
Given how all of these factors are playing out, what then EUR sellers should do right now?
"Bottom line: Sellers of EUR need to be patient," Citi advises.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

It AUD/USD was going to bounce, it would have happened by now

Reasons AUD/USD should have bounced by now:
1.The US dollar has been softer
2.Shanghai stocks climbed 13% from the bottom
3.The S&P touched an all-time high
4.Australia had a decent jobs report
5.The RBA didn’t cut and wasn’t particularly dovish
6.The market is massively short
7.Even gold bounced

Yet here we are with AUD/USD barely 2 cents above the 33-month low.

Technically, AUD/USD doesn’t look great either. The highs and lows have both been lower and the sideways move over the last month has relieved oversold conditions.

The Aug 7 RBA decision looms and that will be the best chance for AUD/USD to bounce and the OIS market is pricing in a 63% chance of a cut. If they don’t cut, it’s still not great news for AUD so long as they keep a dovish bias. Expectations for the coming year are only about 38 basis points of easing and the risk of more easing will remain higher than less.

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

The following are the latest technical outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by UBS*:

EUR/USD: (Neutral) We saw the test of critical resistance at 1.3164, a multiple times, but the pair failed to close above its. A closing break above this would be positive. Support is at 1.2981 ahead of 1.2755.

USD/JPY: (Bullish) With the bull trend intact, focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at 103.74. Support is at 98.27.

GBP/USD: (Bearish ) There is a strong resistance at 1.5283; which should be held on a closing basis. Initial support is at 1.5041 ahead of 1.4814.

AUD/USD: (Bearish) With the bear trend intact, focus is for further downside. Initial support is at 0.8999 ahead of the key 0.8771. There is a strong resistance at 0.9333.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

Natixis - Says Buy GBP/AUD At Market Targeting 1.6909

After a consolidation, GBP/AUD has held above a support at 1.6320 (short term retracement) and should test again the key resistance at 1.6830- 1.6910 (medium term resistance line and retracement), says Natixis.

"A break above this area would accentuate the bullish potential in the coming weeks," Natixis adds.

In line with this view, Natixis advises clients to enter into a technical tactical GBP/AUD poistion at market with a stop at 1.6539, and a target at 1.6909.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR Briefing - New York

[NEW YORK July 19, 2013 19:15 GMT] Market chatter was that Asian names were looking to play the daily cloud’s range (1.3070/1.3155). Asian offers sat near 1.3065 and as Europe walked in the pair was sold to sub-1.3100 levels before bouncing to 1.3110 at NY’s open. Early action saw the bounce continue to 1.3135 as the PBOC’s scrapping of the bank lending floor initiated some USD weakness. After the China news faded EUR/USD slid back to 1.3105 until the BoJ’s Kuroda made some comments from the G20. Kuroda’s statement that the BoJ will continue to strongly pursue its easy policy spiked EUR/JPY from 131.40 to just shy of 132.00. EUR/USD followed & matched Asia’s high of 1.3051. Sov sellers capped the rally & no further gains were made. The afternoon saw summer mkt conditions take hold & the pair consolidated around 1.3140 for the remainder of the session. The 200 DMA & daily cloud base continue frustrate bears and keeps the recent rally intact. A clear break above the cloud & July 11 high will have bulls in charge and put EUR/USD on track for a test of the June highs. (CR) Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

[Abo Abdullah]

Best trade this week: long NZD/JPY

NZD/JPY gained 3% this week, or 226 pips, which was the most of any pair and included gains in all five days this week.

There’s two ways to look at it:
1.The pair is nearly done retracing after a brutal drop from mid-May to mid-June and NZD/JPY is headed lower
2.The retracement from the long uptrend since last June is over and NZD/JPY is headed higher

I lean toward declines because AUD is slumping and the kiwi can’t stay disconnected. On the other hand, there is no better place for carry than NZD/JPY and in an environment where stocks are hitting fresh highs that’s a powerful asset. I prefer when the fundamentals and technicals align so I’m sidelined on this one until the 100-day moving average (80.23) or the 200-day (75.75) break.

Source – Bloomberg Copyright (c) 2013

[AL Ayman]

جزاك الله خيرا أخى أبو عبد الله .. كنت قمت ببيع المجنون و الصفقة خسرانه و حاتمرجن من فضلك
إن كان هناك شىء عن هذا الزوج لليلة الإفتتاح الأحد إن شاء الله برجاء ذكره .. بارك الله فيك
و رزقك بغير حساب

[Abo Abdullah]

جزاك الله خيرا أخى أبو عبد الله .. كنت قمت ببيع المجنون و الصفقة خسرانه و حاتمرجن من فضلك
إن كان هناك شىء عن هذا الزوج لليلة الإفتتاح الأحد إن شاء الله برجاء ذكره .. بارك الله فيك
و رزقك بغير حساب

الله يبارك فيك يا أخي الغالي ايمن , حاضر يا حبيبي من العينتين راح اشوف اي تحليل او اخبار عن هذا

الزوج و اخبرك به , وان شاء الله يبعد عنك وعن جميع الاخوه المارجن بحق هذا الشهر الفضيل , وفقك

الله ورزقك ان شاء الله.

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - USD/JPY: (Bullish) With the bull trend intact, focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at 103.74. Support is at 98.27.

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Barclays - Trading USD/JPY Ahead Of Japan's Upper House Elections

The outcome from this weekend's Japan upper house elections will help determine the ability of the Abe administration to deliver on structural reforms and its long-term growth strategy, and this may prove a key driver for local asset prices, says Barclays Capital.

"If the LDP-NKP coalition wins control of the upper house and receives a decent mandate for reform, we would remain comfortable with our USD/JPY forecast profile of 103 in 3m and 105 in 12m, and see downside risks if the LDP is able to gather enough votes to become the single largest party and push forward with deep reforms," Barclays projects.

So, how to trade USD/JPY ahead of these elections?

"We are currently long USD/JPY spot (from 97.44 with a stop at 94) and would expect the cross to head higher in the event the LDP is able to win 60% of the available seats. We recommend tightening stops at 99.5 ahead of these elections and expect to see a rapid market move to 103 under the scenario where LDP achieves the one-party majority," Barclays advises.

"If LDP-NKP wins control and inherits a decent mandate, USD/JPY drifts higher towards our target of 103, albeit gradually. A very negative election result for the LDP (and Abenomics) would likely lead to USD/JPY trading through our stop level. We would look to re establish long USD/JPY positions at lower levels in that eventuality," Barclays adds.

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Crédit Agricole -Japan's Upper House Elections: What To Expect & How To Position

The outcome of Sunday’s upper house election will be key to the JPY. Assuming Prime Minister Abe’s coalition is winning an upper house majority, he will be able to push through economic reforms as needed in order to purse his goals for supporting the economy.

However, should his coalition secure a more than 2/3 majority this could increase the risk for him to start focusing on nationalistic policies rather than reforms. This in turn would negatively impact sentiment. In our view such an outcome is unlikely.

We basically keep a negative view on the JPY. However, we prefer to play this view against the CHF. The JPY tends to underperform the CHF in periods of improving risk sentiment but acts as a counterbalance when risk aversion rises.

Regarding risk sentiment next week’s US Q2 earnings releases will be closely watched. We believe there is scope for earnings to surprise positively, at least on balance.

[AL Ayman]

جزاك الله خيرا أخى أبو عبد الله .. متابع معك إن شاء الله

[Abo Abdullah]

أخواني الاعزاء جميع هذه الاخبار و التوقعات والتقارير تعتبر استرشاديه ويجب علينا ان

نعرف كيف نتصرف معها قبل المتاجره والهدف منها ان نعلم ما يدور بالسوق اول بأول

وليس دائما تكون السيناريوهات طبق الواقع حيث اننا نعلم ان واقع السوق متغير دائما حسب

الاخبار سواء السياسيه او الاقتصاديه وحسب توجه كبار المستثمرين بالسوق , وهنا اوجه

كلامي بالاخص الى الاخوه المبتدئين ان ينتبهوا الى هذه التقارير وان لا يتعاملون معها على

انها واقع 100% ولتكون لهم بمثابه الاسترشاد والتوقع وعليهم ان يقارنوها مع باقي التحليلات

ومن جميع النواحي قبل اتخاذ القرار بالمتاجره , اما الاخوه اصحاب الخبره و المحترفون فأعتقد

انهم سيعرفون كيف التعامل معها وفي الاوقات المناسبه لكي يستفيدوا منها ويعلموا ما يحدث

بالاسواق .

يعني مثلا هذا الخبر

EUR/USD – HSBC demand noted at 1.2980 in good size
From Singapore - Desk

ليس معناه ان السعر سيطير وسيتغير الاتجاه لان ممكن البنك يطلع بعد اخذ الاوردر بعد 10 او 20

نقطه وحتى احيانا 5 نقاط تكون صفقات سريعه وبكميات كبيره .

خصوصا اذا كان هناك اتفاق مع فروع البنك في الدول الاخرى حيث يقوم فرع مثلا في لندن ببيع

كميات كبيره ويقوم نفس البنك بفرعه في سنغافورا بالشراء بسعر اقل بعد الهبوط بكميات اكبر وهكذا

وهذا على سبيل المثال وليس الحصر , وأرجوا الحرص بالمتاجره وكميه العقود.

ملاحظه : سأعيد هذه المشاركه بين فتره وأخرى لينتبه عليها الاخوان الذين لم يطلعوا عليها .

وفقكم الله جميعا ورزقكم خير الدارين ان شاء الله.

[houssem1012]

الف شكر اخي العزير...رمضان كريم