== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Barclays - Top Thematic & Relative Value FX Trades

The following slide provides Barclays Capital's top thematic and relative value FX trades as of August 2013 (medium to long term).

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Agricole - USD/CAD: Trading CA Retail Sales On Thurs Ahead Of CPI On Fri

An expected contraction in June retail sales today data should maintain CAD pressure ahead of Friday's CPI. Beyond the generalised G10 peripheral (and EM FX) weakness seen already this week, soft Canadian economic data continue to constrain BoC policy expectations preventing clearer outperformance relative to its peers.

Such constraints have clearly been reflected in 3 month FRA’s inability to move above 1.4% in the past month. Reinforcing this short-term rate ceiling, weakness in both the June headline (consensus -0.4%MoM) and component spending indices today could exacerbate CAD selling in the current risk-off environment.

Breaking through August 7 resistance at 1.0445 yesterday, we look for USD/CAD to move higher targeting its July 5th high of 1.0690 in the wake of yesterday’s Fed minutes.

[Abo Abdullah]

ANZ - USD/JPY Dips Are Great Buying Opportunities

Despite appearing to be frustratingly range bound, current USD/JPY dips provide a great buying opportunity, says Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ).

"An uncomfortable slide to 95.80 belies the potential that the 96.75-97.25 area is actually forming a solid base for secondary rebound through 98.70 (interim 50%) to at least 101.50 if not a measured move for a retest of the 103.85 high. However, this could still be part of a broad consolidation of the strong gains seen since Q2 2012 rather than a resumption of the rally, ANZ adds.

"In that context, the current price action is likely to be forming a minor base within a larger consolidation pattern. This should then allow for a redefining of the recent (103.75) high. Longer term, pullbacks should still be seen as a buying opportunity," ANZ projects.

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

EUR/USD: (Bullish) The pair is under correction having tested the important resistance at 1.3417. Any downside should find support at 1.3300 and then 1.3206. Resistance is at 1.3520 ahead of 1.3711.

USD/JPY: (Neutral) Resistance is at 98.67, a close above this would be positive, extending the strength to 99.95 and then 101.53. Strong support is at 96.91 ahead of 95.81.

GBP/USD: (Bullish) The pair is under correction within what is an ongoing bullish trend. Support is at 1.5536 ahead of 1.5423. Resistance is at 1.5752 ahead of 1.5879.

AUD/USD: (Bearish) There is scope for more weakness and support focus is at 0.8848, a break below which would expose 0.8545. Resistance is at 0.9082 ahead of 0.9233.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD Index, & SP500

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD Index, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Fresh high looks weak. The fresh high (neutralizing the medium-term wave count) looks weak with a bearish candle yesterday topping the price/momentum “pre-divergence”. If breaking dynamic support, now at 1.3330/1.3300, the 1.3205/1.3188 ref area would come back in focus.

GBP/USD: Ending the correction? The move higher has been looking correctional (“wedgy”) all along with MACD also diverging earlier and likely topping out now. Yesterday’s “Doji” candle is in this perspective placed at a perfect spot. Follow-through today with a low and bearish looking close, preferably under dynamic support at 1.5570, would be additionally bearish and argue for extension towards the next dynamic support, now at 1.5410 (which is near an earlier reaction low at 1.5375).

USD Index: Taking a shot at near-term resistance. Buyers stemmed the slide and managed to add a potentially bullish daily candle behind. Further advance through dynamic resistance nearby would target the Aug15 reaction high of 81.94. Passing this point would end the series of lower highs and start arguing for a +82.50 move before long.

S&P500: Lower end of support zone targeted. The attempt back over the “Cloud” failed and another loser was added yesterday. If not slowing at the drawn 261.8% Fibo projection refs, this behavior points towards a test of the lower end of the short-term Fibo-adjusted "Ichimoku cloud", now at 1,624. Too fast below 1,615 would however be a stretch, likely to be responded to.

[Abo Abdullah]

Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%):

EURUSD: 1.3435-1.3450 on the upside, 1.3290-1.3305 on the downside.

AUDUSD: 0.9085-0.9100 on the upside, 0.8910-0.8925 on the downside.

USDJPY: 98.70-98.95 on the upside, 96.75-96.90 on the downside.

GBPUSD: 1.5705-1.5720 on the upside, 1.5560-1.5575 on the downside.

USDCAD: 1.0540-1.0555 on the upside, 1.0360-1.0375 on the downside.

NZDUSD: 0.7995-0.8010 on the upside, 0.7760-0.7775 on the downside.

EURJPY: 131.35-131.50 on the upside, 130.00-130.15 on the downside.

EURGBP: 0.8580-0.8595 on the upside, 0.8475-0.8490 on the downside.

USDCHF: 0.9275-0.9290 on the upside, 0.9120-0.9135 on the downside.

AUDJPY: 88.60-88.75 on the upside, 87.25-87.40 on the downside.

EURAUD: 1.4920-1.4935 on the upside, 1.4655-1.4670 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank and UBS - What lies ahead of the EUR/USD

The EUR/USD extends its neutral-bearish mode on Thursday, looking to recover the ground lost post-FOMC minutes ahead of the key PMI data from manufacturing and services sectors of euro zone members.

“The break out of Wednesday’s EUR/USD inside day is likely to determine the trend for the next few days. Since it is to the downside and because we see negative divergence on the daily RSI, we believe that another interim top could now be in place at this week’s 1.3453 high”, commented Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank.

The Swiss bank UBS keeps its bullish stance on the pair, with Strategists Geoffrey Yu and Gareth Berry adding, “The pair is under correction having tested the important resistance at 1.3417. Any downside should find support at 1.3300 and then 1.3206. Resistance is at 1.3520 ahead of 1.3711”.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

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EUR-USD

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Commerzbank - AUD/USD is to rise back above the mid-July low at 0.8999

Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank notes that AUD/USD’s decline over the past few days has taken it to below the mid-July low at 0.8999 and the breached downtrend channel line at .8962, to .8932, before recovering.

“Should the latter level give way, the August low at 0.8849 will be back in play. Over the next few days a bounce should be seen instead.”

“Longer term we will remain negative while below key resistance at 0.9388/0.9404 (2011 low and 2009 high) with our downside target being seen at 0.8550, the 50% retracement of the move up from 2008.”

“Our longer term downside target measured from the top is 0.7700. Medium term, while capped by resistance at 0.9232/0.9319 (July andcurrent August high), our downside bias will remain in place.”

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY – Large option at 99.00 and stops above may attract price higher, though offers from 98.80 – 99.00 and large options at 98.50-98.60 may help hold price down

[Abo Abdullah]

Nomura - EUR/USD Weekly Hanging Man Candle...USD/JPY Wave-D Of Triangle

EUR/USD double trendline breakout earlier this week is disappointing in terms of follow-through, notes Nomura.

"Tomorrow’s close is more significant but the weekly candle is already threatening a bearish hanging man. The wave-C rally from 1.2755 was expected to show equality to wave-A near 1.39 but it does appear to be failing at the .618 extension. S/t, 1.3311 support is under pressure and and could send Euro to channel support at 1.3253," Nomura projects.

In USD/JPY, Nomura thinks that wave-D of triangle is approaching 99.35/100.59 targets over the coming few sessions.

"The 99.35 target is simply the downtrend from May, the 100.59 target is where wave-D = wave-C(.618) which is a common relationship in triangles. This triangle is in wrapping up over 3 months of lower highs & higher lows and we continue to watch for a soon to be realized breakout and a Wave-5 rally to complete a 5 wave impulse that began in October of 2011," Nomura clarifies.

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - EUR/USD correction looming , EUR/CHF – EUR/GBP

UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's EUR crosses.

“The EUR/USD is under correction having tested the important resistance at 1.3417. Any downside should find support at 1.3300 and then 1.3206. Resistance is at 1.3520 ahead of 1.3711, suggesting a bullish outlook.”

In terms of the EUR/CHF, “Support is at 1.2268, a break below which would expose 1.2219. Resistance is at 1.2343 ahead of 1.2378.”

Moving to the EUR/GBP, “The cross has been consolidating over the past few sessions and any further recovery should find resistance at 0.8606. Support is at 0.8505 ahead of 0.8398.”

[Abo Abdullah]

Some macro accounts reported as buying USD in good size