== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, & SP500

EUR/USD: Still balanced near important topside ref. There was nothing to inspire a directional attempt yesterday and there is nothing new in the chart inspiring a directional stance today. Over 1.3380 & 1.3405 would pressure the key 1.3418 ref while below supports at 1.3305 & 1.3280 would increase the risk for also seeing short-term interesting 1.3205 & 1.3188 traded again.
AUD/USD: Falling back hard. Hesitation to take on broader short-term resistance showed already soon after the open yesterday and the low session close didn’t bode well for the expected recovery. RBNZ minutes today were another nail in the coffin for the antipodeans and we have to surrender thought of a correctional move further up to reduce medium- & long-term stretches. A session close under 0.9064/0.9050 today would expose the recent 0.8851 low again. To consider the correction, at least 0.9160 must be scaled again.
USD/CAD: An upside attempt unfolding. After spending more than a week in a tight range, there is an upside attempt unfolding. A 1st indication of strength would come with a move and time spent above a descending line of resistance, now at 1.0380. The key short-term topside ref is however located some distance away at 1.0445 which also has to give way to get a bigger move higher going.
S&P500: Aiming for 1,633 next. The market has passed below the Jun reaction high of 1,649 and into the thought supportive short-term Fibo-adjusted "Ichimoku cloud". The next ref to look out for is located at a short-term 261.8% Fibo projection ref at 1,633, followed by the low end of the “cloud” and the current short-term stretch at 1,624/1,620. Resistance is likely building strength at 1,668\1,674.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD receding from its highs after clearing stops over 1.3400; macro accounts still possibly looking to buy
US leveraged funds steadily selling USD/JPY
USD/CHF – …continued talk of strong bids from .9190 through .9180 may keep stops under .9170 in the clear

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank and UBS - What can we do with the GBP/USD

The ongoing bullish momentum in the sterling found some tough barrier around 1.5680 on Tuesday, with the GBP/USD being rejected to the current area of 1.5665/70. The bull run since July trough around 1.4810 continues its firm march north, advancing for the third consecutive week and currently trading in multi-week highs.

According to Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, the pair “is still expected to hit the uptrend channel resistance line at 1.5727, a rise above which will put the June peak at 1.5752 on the map. Just above it meanders the 200 week moving average at 1.5752 which is to act as resistance… GBP/USD will remain overall bid while trading above last week’s 1.5424 low”.

The Swiss bank UBS holds a bullish outlook on the pair. Strategists G.Yu and G.Berry commented, “The recent strength suggests there is scope for a test of important resistance at 1.5752 ahead of 1.5879. Support is at 1.5608 ahead of 1.5496”.

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - AUD/USD the 55 day moving average at 0.9218 provokes failure

Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank notes on Monday AUD/USD reached but was rejected by the 55 day moving average at 0.9218.

“Between it and the 0.9319 July high we thus saw failure and the resumption of the longer term bearish trend as expected.”

“Once last week’s low at 0.9058 has been slipped through, a tumble back towards the 0.9038/0.8999 support zone (early and mid-July lows) should be seen.”

“Longer term we remain negative and our downside target is seen at 0.8550, the 50% retracement of the move up from 2008. Our longer term downside target measured from the top is 0.7700.”

“Medium term while capped by key resistance at .9388/.9404 (2011 low and 2009 high), our downside bias will remain in place.”

[Abo Abdullah]

Expect heavy selling ahead of 1.3450 in EUR/USD as that level contains a large DNT option

Aggressive leveraged funds noted as the sellers that helped take out USD/CHF stops

As EUR/USD saw buying from macro accounts worked through sovereign offers up to 1.3410 and cleared stops above, USD/CHF followed suit and quickly took out the sub-.9170 stops

GBP/USD slowly rising on broad USD weakness and moves within range of offers from barrier option players in front of 1.5700

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD – leveraged accounts and Real money noted Start offer building at 1.3420/30 in good size

[Abo Abdullah]

Large commercial Swiss account taking advantage of the dip in USD/CHF and now noted as buying the pair

[Abo Abdullah]

Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%):
•EURUSD: 1.3415-1.3430 on the upside, 1.3285-1.3300 on the downside.
•AUDUSD: 0.9210-0.9225 on the upside, 0.8980-0.8995 on the downside.
•USDJPY: 98.40-98.55 on the upside, 96.70-96.85 on the downside.
•GBPUSD: 1.5685-1.5700 on the upside, 1.5580-1.5595 on the downside.
•USDCAD: 1.0385-1.0400 on the upside, 1.0280-1.0295 on the downside.
•NZDUSD: 0.8255-0.8270 on the upside, 0.7895- 0.7910 on the downside.
•EURJPY: 131.05-131.20 on the upside, 129.25-129.40 on the downside.
•EURGBP: 0.8565-0.8580 on the upside, 0.8470-0.8485 on the downside.
•USDCHF: 0.9285-0.9300 on the upside, 0.9155-0.9170 on the downside.
•AUDJPY: 90.55-90.70 on the upside, 87.00-87.15 on the downside.
•EURAUD: 1.4865-1.4880 on the upside, 1.4445-1.4460 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

[Abo Abdullah]

BIS selling in EUR/USD as it rallies here at 1.3440

[Abo Abdullah]

Repetition

BIS selling in EUR/USD as it rallies here at 1.3440

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD sentiment still negative, though broad USD weakness taking over and allowing AUD/USD to steadily push higher; this USD weakness confusing many beginning to force longs out

EUR/USD and GBP/USD both very close to barriers with protective selling not holding up well; A US hedge fund is reported as buying EUR/USD with a target on stops above the barrier (1.3450)

USD/CHF moves down alongside EUR/USD’s rally; momentum traders and system funds joining in on both pairs

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY suffers from USD weakness and stops below 96.80 are within reach, but Japanese exporter bids noted from 96.90 through 96.80

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

U.S. Dollar Index Forming A Complex Correction – Elliott Wave Analysis

USD Index is trading lower for few weeks now but decline from 85.00 has a corrective look for now so we suspect its part of a larger complex correction from May highs. We are tracking a W)-X)-Y) correction, so if we are correct the USD should find a support somewhere around 80.30-81.00 level.
An impulsive rally from here and back to 83.00 will put prices back in bullish mode. That's what is called a confirming price action. Let's see if we get one!