== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Barclays' - Trade Of The Week: Sell EUR/GBP

Investors following short-term macro strategies should consider selling EUR/GBP this week, advises Barclays Capital in its weekly FX pick to clients.

"The GBP continued to attract investor attention and outperformed most major currencies, helped by positive data flows and mixed messages from the BoE on its commitment to its forward guidance. Much cleaner positioning and an elevated UK data surprise index mean that positioning and data surprises will likely become less of a driver and we still look for the GBP to weaken against the USD, as we expect the Fed to start tapering in September and the US economy to gain momentum into year-end. But difference regarding the forward guidance between the BoE and ECB suggests EUR/GBP to trend lower and we now expect the cross to grind lower toward 0.83 in 12 months," Barclays says as a rationale behind this call.

"Given the mixed message revealed in the recent MPC Minutes, the BoE is likely to face a challenge convincing the market on the forward guidance, while we expect the ECB to launch another VLTRO later this year to address the issue of passive tightening in liquidity conditions. We also expect the euro area flash manufacturing PMI to surprise to the downside this week, likely weighing on the EUR," Barclays adds.

[Abo Abdullah]

EU quiet start 1.3200-1.3400 range still dominates

Closed in NY -0.17% on day and a 10 pt range around 1.3340 early in Asia
Little in weekend press or on news wires to generate EUR volatility
Momentum studies net positive - contracting Bolli's suggest consolidation
1.3200.1.3400 range has dominated this month and should extend
NY 1.3311/1.3380 range is initial support/resistance

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP/USD notes

•June high matches up with 200 week MA circa 1.575 - strong res
•Thursday's break above 200 day MA puts focus on next res at 1.575
•Double top possible with MACD bearish divergence showing on 4hr chart
•Bulls be cautious as pullback risks are growing - wait for reversal signal

NZD/USD notes

•Area around 0.81 formidable resistance since late May - top of range
•Friday saw fresh high above July 25th and Aug 15th highs at 0.8105
•4hr / daily chart shows bearish MACD divergence at Friday's high
•Look to get short for a retest of 50 day MA circa 0.79 in coming days
•Place stop above 200 day MA at 0.821 for protection

EUR/USD off to quiet start

•Closed in NY -0.17% on day and a 10 pt range around 1.3340 early in Asia
•Litttle in weekend press or on newswires to generate EUR volatility
•Momentum studies net positive - contracting Bolli's suggest consolidation
•1.3200.1.3400 range has dominated this month and should extend
•NY 1.3311/1.3380 range is initial support/resistance

[ابو راجي]

يا ريت لو في ترجمة عربي و يكون في نقاش بكون احلى موضوع بالمنتدى
على كل الله يعطيك العافية ابو عبدالله

[Abo Abdullah]

يا ريت لو في ترجمة عربي و يكون في نقاش بكون احلى موضوع بالمنتدى

على كل الله يعطيك العافية ابو عبدالله

حياك الله يالغالي ابو راجي المشكله عندي ليست بالترجمه , المشكله بكثرة التقارير وعلى فكره انا لا

انقل جميع التقارير فأحاول دائما ان انقل المهم جدا والمشكله بالاخبار فيحتاج الى سرعه الى نقلها

لان بعض الاخبار تفقد فاعليتها بعد فتره وخصوصا مستويات الطلبات والعروض للاسعار من البنوك

وبالاخص فترة السيوله العاليه وعندما يتحرك السوق فأنا احاول وبقدر استطاعتي ان انقل الخبر بسرعه

طبعا حسب ظروفي , ولذلك عملت استطلاع في بداية موضوعي , واذا في شئ معين وغير واضح فأنا

دائما بالخدمه واحاول الرد بالسرعه الممكنه وسامحني يالغالي فظروف الموضوع هكذا , وفقك الله

ورزقك ان شاء الله .

[Abo Abdullah]

EU techs 200 WMA likely CAP rally

200 week MA by June high at 1.34 again tested on Friday
Strong rally from 1.32 support took price to top of range at 1.34
Signs of reversal at key resistance evident on 4hr chart - bearish candle
Look for another pullback to 1.32 support / 50 day MA in coming days

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY thru 97.80 offers, Japanese retail on bid

•USD/JPY up from 97.55 to 97.75 early, capped pre-97.80 US fund offers.
•Some of these offers absorbed, fresh 97.85 high, Japanese buying still.
•Japanese retail players behind early move up, trend for initial buys.
•Offering interest trails up but some trader stops eyed 98.00+.

[Abo Abdullah]

Funds demand on the bid for AUD/USD at current level 0.9190

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Bundesbank sees German economy returning to normal

EURUSD higher on Bundesbank comments. Through 1.3350 but more sovereign offers at 1.3380

EURUSD- Dealers seeing selling into this Bundesbank statement rally

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, Gold, & SP500

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, Gold, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Looks balanced near important levels. Last IMM reporting week (as per last Tue’s close) Speculative accounts added to net EUR longs and reduced shorts – both directly and indirectly as an aggregate measure. This is reflected in the move higher in spot. The market seems to open this week on a balanced note, still very close to a medium-term 1.3418 key ref. To depict renewed selling pressure, near-term support at 1.3205/1.3188 must be taken out.

GBP/USD: Could recheck +1.57 before down. The whole move up from the Jul low has been thought to be correctional all along, but it has admittedly been ongoing for longer and a lot higher than what was initially thought. In addition to the overall correctional looks, the move up from the early Aug low looks “wedgy” and is thought to stall somewhere near the Jun high of 1.5753 – at the latest. A bearish looking session close outside the wedge or below the 8day "Conversion line" (blue) would be a 1st sign of weakness.

AUD/USD: Digging into broad resistance. According to the most recent IMM report, speculative accounts have started to reduce excessive shorts. This process is thought to continue as spot has scaled a recent 0.9220 high (in an attempt to reduce medium- & long-term stretches). Overhead levels to look for are placed at a late Jul high of 0.9320 and at an Aug5-15 "Equality point" & the current short-term stretch at 0.9430. Support is likely established in the 0.9105/0.9050-zone.

SPOT GOLD: Headed towards 1,395\1,424. The 5-wave sequence still has bearing north. Two May-Jun refs at 1,395 and more importantly at 1,424 are beacons the market is steering towards next. The recently violated 55day exponentially weighted moving average band (1,346/1,321) should be a dynamic support the market is thought to respect.
S&P500: Testing attraction/support. The move lower was Fri extended to (almost) meet the Jun19 high and the short-term Fibo-adjusted "Ichimoku cloud". Expect support here and a bounce back up to test Thu’s mid-body point at 1,668. Should this thought of a bounce be premature, extension towards 1,625/20 is an alternative.

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

The following are the latest technical outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by UBS*:

EUR/USD: (Bullish) With bullish conditions in place, the first resistance focus is at 1.3417, a break above which would open 1.3520. Support is at 1.3206 ahead of 1.3154.

USD/JPY: (Neutral) Resistance is at 98.67, a close above this would extend the recent strength to 99.95 and then 101.53. Support is at 95.81 ahead of 93.79.

GBP/USD: (Bullish) The recent strength suggests there is scope for a test of important resistance at 1.5752. Support is at 1.5496.

AUD/USD: (Bearish) Only a closing break above resistance at 0.9209 would prolong the recent recovery to 0.9320 and then 0.9431. Support is at 0.9058 ahead of 0.8848

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Did It Again: Resold Cable At Market Targeting 1.4785

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is not throwing in the towel on its bullish USD view yet even after stopping in August out of its last short GBP/USD trade and exited its short EUR/USD on a very tiny profit.

"The USD sell-off dealt our basing/bullish view a strong blow, but did not do enough to invalidate. Indeed, against key levels -- 80.49 in the USD Index, 1.3418 in EUR/USD and 1.5752 in GBP/USD -- WE REMAIN USD BULLS," BofA clarifies.

As such, BofA reinstated a small tactical GBP/USD position arguing that the Elliott Wave setup is too beautiful to ignore, particularly from a risk/reward perspective.

The new trade entered at market (1.5645) with a stop at 1.5755, and a target at 1.4785.

And for those unwilling to buy USD yet, BofA recommends focusing on buying EUR/GBP.

"The test and hold of 15m trendline support (now 0.8518) and turn higher in daily momentum from oversold levels point to a potential base and turn higher. A close above the 0.8574 pivot confirms, targeting 0.8805/16," BofA projects.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Julian]

مجهوووود عظيم اخي ابو عبدالله ،جزاك الله كل خير


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