== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Asia Market Report

USD/JPY
•Offers at 97.50, 98.00, and 98.60
•Buy stops most notable above 97.50
•Bids into 97.00, more ahead of 96.40
•Sell stops under the big figure

AUD/USD
•Offers from .9190 up to .9200 in good size
•Buy stops above the big figure decent
•Bids from .9060 through .9050
•Sell stops below .9060 as well

NZD/USD
•Offers standing strong at .8100
•Buy stops above .8080 and large over .8100
•Bids most notable at .8000, more through .7950
•Sell stops under .7980

EUR/USD
•Offers at 1.3360, 1.3380, and very heavy into 1.3450 (barrier)
•Buy stops above 1.3360 and 1.3400
•Bids decent at 1.3320, stronger at 1.3250
•Sell stops clustered near 1.3330

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - USD/JPY & AUD/USD: Where From Here

While USD/JPY remains below the four month resistance line at 99.97, downside pressure should be maintained with the triangle support line at 94.77 being targeted, projects Commerzbank.

"Short term resistance above the 55 day moving average but below the resistance line is seen at the current August high at 99.95. On the way down lurks the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June-to-July rise at 95.42," CB outlines its s/t bias on the pair.

"Over the coming weeks we allow for losses back to the 93.77/75 support area. This is where the 200 day moving average and the June low are to be found," CB adds.

For AUD/USD, CB s/t view is that once Wednesday’s low at .9074 has been slipped through, a tumble back towards the .9038/.8999 support zone (early and mid-July lows) should be seen.

"Longer term we remain negative and our downside target is seen at .8550, the 50% retracement of the move up from 2008. Our longer term downside target measured from the top is .7700. While capped by key resistance at .9388/.9404 (2011 low and 2009 high), our downside bias will remain in place," CB outlines its l/t bias on the pair.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Deutsche Bank FX Dealing Desk Report

EUR
Open 1.3336 Support 1.3230 Resistance 1.3420
•Euro tries to sell off yesterday but runs into good demand from Asian names ahead of 1.32 before the move in commodities catches the market short at bad levels and reverses the move. Technically USD longs should be worried in the short term as DXY, EUR, CHF, and JPY all putting in reversals on the charts
•EUR CPI and US Mich today
•Flattened my Euro short and moved to the sidelines for now

GBP
Open 1.5620 Support 1.5512/24 (hi Aug 12, 200 dma) Resistance 1.56 84/88 (hi Jun 6, 100 wma)
•Retail sales the last in a long line of impressive data. We saw leverage eager to sell pounds in the morning session , but as the dollar faltered cbl once again posted an impressive daily performance.
•Owning sterling our bias but rather annoyingly we are positioned against the euro. Order book would favour a slightly stronger pounds heading into the weekend, good luck.

CHF
Open 1.2377/79 Support 1.2360/1.2320 Resistance 1.2430 1.2480
Open 0.9278/80 Support 0.9210/0.9180 Resistance 0.9340/0.9430
•EURCHF continued to trade well until the USD suffers late New York post some mixed data and its rinse repeat again for fast money, expect the x to go nowhere today, 1,2360 / 1,2420 should cover it, overall we nevertheless keep our longs
•USDCHF still simply follows eurusd and stays in 0,9210/0.9360 range on the very wide, we are sidelined here

AUD
Open 0.9150 Support 0.9080 Resistance 0.9200
•AUD recovers well off the lows from yesterday as the SHCOMP showed gains of 4% at one stage on the back of RRR rumours in China
•Since then, equities have sold off to be flat on the day and AUD has given back some subsequent gains
•Yesterday's break below 0.9080 looks a long way away now and dips toward 0.9100/20 should be used as buying opportunities
•The orderbook has emptied out significantly on either side of current prices with interest on concentrated at the outer edges of the range
•I hold a long GBPAUD position because of the relative outperformance of UK data .

NZD
Open 0.8065 Support 0.8010 Resistance 0.8100
•Kiwi retraced all of yesterday's losses to be close to 81 cents before another earthquake hit Wellington
•NZDUSD sold off 40 pts but has since rallied back as selling NZD on earthquake news has rarely been profitable
•The bigger picture though is quite problematic for the RBNZ as productivity in the Wellington area will again be poor in coming weeks as buildings are assessed and workers stay home, combined with the fact that these event do nothing to keep house prices in Auckland in check as people seek to leave their shaking capital
•I remain a buyer of NZD on dips and today that represents 0.8040

JPY

Open 97.64 Support 96.80 95.80 Resistance 97.40 98.35(20 DMA)
Open 130.14 Support 129.50 128.00 Resistance 130.90(TL)
•Enough damage with G10 currency world was done in post-US release market. USDJPY flipped the upward move quickly as usual equity slid, from 98.66 down to low 97s.
•Book-wise; light short-covering int above mid 97s. very minimal int down to low 96 with light long-liquidation int below.
•Looks like a complete failure on the charts for the usdjpy longs, flattened cash here but still long through options

CAD
Open 1.0310 Support 1.0280 Resistance 1.0370
•USDCAD continues to frustrate longs with ranges tight
•Corporate interest should keep a base on USDCAD for now and dips toward 1.0280 should be used as buying opportunities
•Our orderbook reflects this view and I hold a long USDCAD position on these levels
•Manufacturing Sales is the highlight on the data front locally while US housing starts and Michigan Consumer Confidence will be closely looked at

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse Daily FX Techs

EURUSD has staged a vicious “outside” reversal which turns the
focus back on range resistance at 1.3401/18, where we look for
selling.

GBPUSD’s stays on course for 1.5678/9 with a bigger obstacle at
1.5752, the June high.

USDCHF has found a near-term ceiling at key resistance at .9395 to
maintain its range.

USDJPY found selling again at the 55-day average at 98.35/65.
EURGBP spotlight turns to trendline and 200-day average support at
.8492/53.

AUDUSD has bounced, but the falling 55-day average at .9239 ideally
caps to keep the risk lower.

NZDUSD above .8107 warns of a potentially important base.

[Abo Abdullah]

Morgan Stanley Opening Comment

Yesterday's bevy of US economic data was mixed overall, and so in turn was the reaction in the dollar. Weekly initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level since October 2007 and yearly CPI picked up to 2.0% from the prior 1.8% - US yields traded to its highest level since early August 2011 and the DXY rallied 1%. However, weak IP & Philly Fed took yields and the dollar off their highs with the move in the dollar exaggerated by large Usd/Jpy Tsy redemption flows ahead of the WMR fix.

Overnight, there was a lot of confusion surrounding Shanghai A share which rallied from -0.6% up to 5% in a few mins and then back to 1.0% - No clear explanation, though rumours circulated range from a fat finger trade at Everbright Securities, speculation of an impending stimulus after reports of potential RRR cuts, to futures expiration positioning - who knows?

Flow wise, we saw some Usd/Nzd buying as it broke last month's high of 0.8106, making new highs of 0.8113 but it quickly retreated back below the figure and sold-off further to a 0.8054 low on news of a 6.1 magnitude earthquake near Wellington. Usd/Jpy recovered off the lows of 97.05 to post a high of 97.76, whereas Eur/Usd was confined to a 1.3339-56 range.

Looking ahead, we have Eurozone CPI data while in the US, we have the housing starts and University of Michigan Confidence survey of consumer sentiment coming out today.

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

EUR/USD: (Bullish) With bullish conditions in place, the first resistance focus is at 1.3417, a break above which would open 1.3520. Support is at 1.3206 ahead of 1.3154.

USD/JPY: (Neutral) Resistance is at 98.67, a close above this would extend the recent strength to 99.95 and then 101.53. Support is at 95.81 ahead of 93.79.

GBP/USD: (Bullish) The strength over the past two days reinforces the bullish theme, opening the way to test the critical resistance at 1.5752. Support is at 1.5496.

AUD/USD: (Bearish) Only a closing break above resistance at 0.9209 would prolong the recent recovery to 0.9320 and then 0.9431. Support is at 0.9035 ahead of 0.8848.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

Morgan Stanley FX Dealer Report - Euro

EURUSD
Support 1.3320 1.3270 1.3190 Resistance 1.3360 1.3415
On the whole we have moderately better than expected data from the US yesterday but the story was all about fixed income and having taken out the key 2.75% level in UST’s the market went after the USD, again. Unfortunately FI globally was going the same thing and this led into a spill over into risk more broadly which halted the move in its tracks (especially JPY, CHF) and what ensued was yet another reversal which left the short term market begging for the weekend. I still find comfort in my tactical trading mode and so will be looking to add dollars on any further sell off -1.3370/80 should be faded with a stop above 1.3430

[Abo Abdullah]

Nomura Bank FX Dealer Report - JPY

JPY thoughts from London - Was sold off aggressively from a fresh 10days high of 98.66 printed after the better US jobless claim yesterday to 97.00 thanks to weak US stocks prompted by soft Philly index. It was just volatile and I don’t think there is a real catalyst, the market was long USD at high and cut at low.One thing what I realized yesterday was that USD/JPY has more correlation with equity than yields and that makes USD/JPY difficult to rally at the moment. Nikkei is right on the trendline since November ( 13,500), I think USD/JPY trades under pressure if Nikkei clearly breaks the downside. As an intraday trade, I am likely to play USD/JPY from the short side today with stop at 98.20.

[ابو لاما]

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله تعالئ وبركاته
كل عام وانت بخير يا ابو عبدالله وللجميع ان شاء الله
بارك الله بك وجزاك الف خير يا رب علئ ما تقدمه اخي ابو عبدالله و اسالك السموحة ان تاخرت عليك في مباركة العيد
تقبل خالص تحياتي

[Abo Abdullah]

BNP Paribas Daily FX Report

USD to gain as tapering expectations pick up; But lower volatility needed

The USD is receiving a bid this morning, but like yesterday, the support is coming in a slightly risk-off environment with stock markets under moderate downward pressure. This response has come following yesterday’s data which showed strong US inflation and labour trends, but softer than expected survey activity data. The reaction seems to suggest that investors view the data mix as consistent with Fed tapering going ahead (thanks to strength in price and labour market data) even as underlying activity is not firm enough to support equity prices though the tapering process.

Volatility in US treasuries have picked up (MOVE index at highest in 2-weeks). We will keep a close eye on this metric as tapering fears in late-May/June sparked rising volatility (first in US treasuries) which spilled over to FX and counter intuitively placed long USD positions vs. G10 under pressure. However, assuming global activity data continues to hold up and Chinese hard landing fears get priced out (which opposite of case in late May/June), then we would expect volatility to remain subdued. This should allow an orderly USD rise against G10; we favour long USDCHF and short

Cable as a quant trade, though the latter is trading very close to our 1.5650 stop. Today, we see the release of July housing starts, which should bounce modestly following their big plunge in June, while Michigan sentiment will likely give back a bit more of its big Q2 gains, with our estimate calling for the headline to fall to 86 from July’s 86.3. Next week’s FOMC minutes release (for 31 July meeting) will further direct US yields and USD.

Stay long NZDUSD; Impact of earthquake likely limited

Following news of a 6.8 magnitude earthquake in New Zealand, there has been limited damage to NZD with NZDUSD marking a low of 0.8054, still well above yesterday’s 0.7995 lows. While more information is required, initial reports indicate no casualties or property damage. We expect NZD to extend its recent gains as strong cyclical data lead the RBNZ to adopt a more hawkish stance. Our positioning indicator suggests the market is running a sizeable short NZD position, while BNP Paribas STEER indicates the currency is becoming more sensitive to local drivers relative to global inputs. On Thursday we recommended buying NZDUSD at 0.8075 with a 0.84 target and a 0.7950 stop. Please see our latest Global FX Plus weekly.

TIC shows no big foreign bid for US equities through Q2

Contrary to anecdotal reports which supported the dollar in June, the data continued to show no evidence of substantial asset allocation in favour of US equity markets—if fact, foreign investors were heavy sellers of US stocks on the month, unloading $25bn in US equities even as US investors continued to buy foreign stocks (see chart). The data suggests that the USD rally in
Q2 was much more about anticipating future flows than a real improvement in the USD's structural underpinnings, and the USD's struggles in Q3 probably reflect this. We still expect the USD to recover and do well in Q3 but the dollar will need US yield support for this to happen in the absence of big equity flows.

[Abo Abdullah]

Morgan Stanley recommends buying USD/CHF

* Buy Dollar-Swiss Chf0.9290, stop Chf0.9160, target Chf0.9700
* Our FX Macro Opportunities filter shows that G10 FX is trading more sensitive to relative rates than to global risk appetite of late. While this may change in September, near term we think CHF will weaken in a rising global yield environment. CHF is also a cheap way to fund long USD positions. SNB Danthine's comments earlier this week support our view that low Swiss rates and the SNB's floor are likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD - bids at 1.3300/10 in good size; sell stops beneath grow larger; offers accumulating again at 1.3350, larger at 1.3380 with buy stops in decent size above 1.34

USD/JPY - specs took some profits but demand from option players continue to support the pair; solid bids from 97.20 to 97.00 with sizeable stops below; offers lined up at 97.80 and 98.00 with buy stops above the big figure

GBP/USD - remains well-bid, but still caught in tight range; bids at 1.5620 and larger at 1.5580 with stops accumulating beneath both levels; offers at 1.5650, 1.5680 and ahead of the 1.57 barrier option

AUD/USD - short-term specs taking some profit on long positions and real money selling has capped the rally ahead of 0.9190; bids are seen at 0.9150 and in better size 0.9120/30 with stops beneath; to the topside, offers at 0.9190 and solid above 0.92

[Abo Abdullah]

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله تعالئ وبركاته
كل عام وانت بخير يا ابو عبدالله وللجميع ان شاء الله
بارك الله بك وجزاك الف خير يا رب علئ ما تقدمه اخي ابو عبدالله و اسالك السموحة ان تاخرت عليك في مباركة العيد
تقبل خالص تحياتي

وعليكم السلام ورحمة الله وبركاته , وانت بألف خير يارب , هلا بالغالي وهلا بالغايب من طول الغيبات

جاب الغنايم ان شاء الله تكون بصحه وسلامه حبيبي عرابي راح ابعثلك السكايب الجديد على الخاص

تحياتي وتقديري .

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, Gold, & SP500

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, Gold, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Sharp “Late night” rebound. Europe went home at ~1.3250 and comes back to market a full big fig higher… Don’t see what this might bring, but fact is that the pair didn’t like it much under 1.3233 as it was bounced sharply up from medium-term dynamic support at the high end of the weekly Fibo-adjusted "Ichimoku cloud". If breaking 1.3418 in the process a bearish medium-term wave count becomes too messy and the outlook must accordingly be shifted into neutral.

USD/JPY: Another topside rejection. The pair was refused entry into the short-term overhead zone of resistance. The low session close as a result puts some pressure on a near-term 96.98 pivot and south of it would expose the recent 95.81 low again.

EUR/GBP: Look for a sub-0.85 attempt. Buyers keep responding to dips, but only half-heartedly so. Repeated lower lows, lower highs & closes below opens show that there is a predominant short-term selling pressure still to balance (through lower spot). Too fast through 0.8475 would be a stretch and trigger some profit taking which ought to delay (not derail) a later <0.84 test. Resistance pockets are likely at 0.8555, 0.8580 & 0.8620.

SPOT GOLD: Bullish break – bullish wave count. Yesterday's move higher posts a solid break above the 55day exponentially weighted moving average band. The short-term wave count is also constructively bullish. This point towards extension towards an early Jun reaction high of 1,423. Bearishly back under the band (<1,317) is needed to pencil in a “wave-5 high” (to be followed by a correctional “A-B-C” before another bullish 5-wave sequence unfolds).

S&P500: Sharp move lower targets 1,649 next. The “Round-top”/"Head & shoulders" formation plays out as it should. Yesterday's sharp loss sets focus on a Jun high and the upper end of the short-term Fibo-adjusted "Ichimoku cloud", in the 1,649/1,643 area. Any mid-body (1,668) recheck is thought to be sold into. The key topside ref to reclaim to ease further downside risks remains at 1,697.