== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Goldman Sachs FX Desk Report

Summary of our Traders’ Strategies:
•EUR: The short terms stops through 1.3230 look to be safe ... unless of course USTs break the magical 2.75% double top which could give the dollar the upper hand again
•JPY: We remain long USDJPY, but are conscious of these fickle summer markets and have raised our stop to 97.65 – looking for a break of 98.80
•GBP: We are going into the data today short cable risking 1.5520; much more tactical than strategic but we think the risk/reward looks attractive
•AUD: Remain light at these levels with 0.9080 the first support (0.9081 lows overnight) with topside resistance now at 0.9150/60 area
•CHF: We have lightened up some of our long here this morning trying to improve our average and will look to leave offers out around 1.2460 just ahead of the July highs

EUR

The sell off in USTs have been given a good run for their money by the bund with the 10yr yields correcting from 2.56-2.72% and 1.66%-1.84% respectively since Monday as fixed income sells off across the board. Yesterday the dollar reigned supreme, but with a better than expected set of GDP prints from France and Germany this morning (admittedly Germany print in line with the leak over the weekend) the short terms stops through 1.3230 look to be safe ... unless of course USTs break the magical 2.75% double top which could give the dollar the upper hand again. The Euro Area composite GDP print later this morning should pass with little fanfare, 0.3/0.4% probably more likely after this mornings components. 1.3190 remains the important support level before the DMA’s come back into play with yesterday mornings ZEW inspired highs (both in terms of the actual data prints and the Bloomberg cherry picked headline “ECB rate hike more likely in next six months” – more likely than what?) attracting selling interest in the order book.

JPY

As we mentioned yesterday the downside appeared to have exhausted itself following the weaker than expected GDP figure out of Japan, with the path of least resistance for a grind higher towards the multitude of tech levels which appear on the horizon from 98.35-98.80 level – the most pertinent of these being the Cloud resistance from 98.60-80 region. US FI appears to be taking on the Fed regardless of tapering or not in Sept, with higher yields finally filtering through into the FX markets. With global FI taking a hit over the past 24 hrs, it is worth noting that JGB’s have behaved well, even with the supply seen in the 5yr yesterday and lack of liquidity given the holiday period. We have seen some two way flow towards the above mentioned tech levels, with exporter offers capping us for the time being, however a break of the Cloud above 98.80 should see importer demand materialise, who have missed the dip and further spec participation. We remain long USDJPY, but are conscious of these fickle summer markets and have raised our stop to 97.65 – looking for a break of 98.80.

GBP

UE report and minutes today – the former taking much larger than usual focus given the forward guidance metric installed last week although numerous commentators suggesting there is a chance of an uptick in the rate towards the 8.0% threshold given the volatility in the data and the manner in which it is calculated so 7.8% may see a small positive for the currency. The minutes shouldn’t have huge significance but a dovish surprise would be unanimous vote for forward guidance / and or agreement over the 7% threshold (mild dovish and enough to take cable towards 1.5380 area) but more so if any members (most likely Fisher or Miles) voted for a rate cut (unlikely given they had the PMIs ahead of time) but this doesn’t preclude some discussion from the committee over a potential rate cut. What is also interesting is the dislocation yesterday between the currency and rates – short sterling saw another aggressive sell off (even more so than TYs) yet the currency bar a weird spike yesterday afternoon, remains offered which suggests to me positioning is much cleaner and the risk short term remains lower at least towards the 1.53 area. On that basis we are going into the data today short cable risking 1.5520; much more tactical than strategic but we think the risk/reward looks attractive. For the cross 0.8560 stops triggered all the way down to 0.8535 area and a firm recovery after so the range simply shifts towards 0.8530 / 0.8650 with little to excite us here.

AUD

Consumer confidence comes in stronger than expected with participants responding positively to the recent rate cut. Quite a contrast to yesterdays subdued business confidence and shows that households, in part driven been solid house price growth, remain upbeat and are reacting to the RBA’s easing cycle. This hasn’t unfortunately translated into any developed price action with a sub 30 pip range overnight. Yesterday the AUD remained fairly heavy throughout the session in sympathy with the move higher in US rates. The dip saw some real money demand emerge again but in general as stated yesterday participation remains light and positioning at this stage feels far less developed than earlier in the cycle. Remain light at these levels with 0.9080 the first support (0.9081 lows overnight) with topside resistance now at 0.9150/60 area.

CHF

EURCHF slowly drifted higher over the course of yesterdays session until finally we were able to break the 1.2395/1.2405 level that had capped us for 4 weeks. A combination of a resilient Euro, and USDCHF being lured higher by USDJPY re-taking 97.50/70 has seen EURCHF reap the rewards - we have been better buyers for leveraged accounts on stop this morning through 1.2405 with fresh demand on the break of 1.2420. We have lightened up some of our long here this morning trying to improve our average and will look to leave offers out around 1.2460 just ahead of the July highs whilst adding on any dip back towards 1.2360/70. USDCHF made light work of the 0.9290/0.9300 level and short terms stops can be rolled up through here with 0.9390/0.9410 the next hurdle to overcome for those sitting long.

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS Daily FX Report

FX Technicals

EUR/USD - BULLISH There is a strong support at 1.3154, which is expected to hold the recent sell-off. Resistance is at 1.3317 ahead of 1.3417.

USD/JPY- BEARISH The recent advance faces a strong support at 98.67. With the MACD below its zero line, focus is on resumption of downside, with initial support at 97.07 ahead of 95.81.

GBP/USD- BULLISH Any downside will be limited, with a strong support at 1.5394. Key resistance is at 1.5598. A closing break above this would trigger further upside towards 1.5782.

USD/CHF- BEARISH There is a strong resistance at 0.9395, which is strong enough to hold and reverse the current rally. Support is at 0.9283 ahead of 0.9241.

AUD/USD- BEARISH After failing to close above 0.9209, the pair is moving lower. With the bear trend intact, we expect further downside, with support is at 0.9035 ahead of 0.8848.

USD/CAD- NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.0361 ahead of 1.0445. There is a strong support at 1.0241. A closing break below this would be negative.

EUR/CHF- BEARISH The cross further extended its strength but faces a strong resistance at 1.2390. With the trending tools pointing lower potential remains for resumption of downside. Support is at 1.2325 ahead of 1.2268.

EUR/GBP- NEUTRAL Resistance is at 0.8623, a move above this would open 0.8680. Support stands at 0.8535.

EUR/JPY- NEUTRAL The cross rallied from the support at 127.94. Resistance is at 130.92 ahead of the significant 133.80.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse - Outlooks & Strategies For Gold, Sliver, & Crude Oil

Focus of the day:

In the following charts, Credit Suisse outlines its technical outlooks and strategies for Gold, Sliver, and Crude oil.

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Merrill EUR/USD Bears & USD/JPY Bulls, 'Awaken From Your Slumber

While Bank of America Merrill Lynch has recently focused far more attention on the future of EUR/USD, USD/CHF and GBP/USD, BofA now thinks that it's time to put USD/JPY back on the radar screen

"THE 2.5m RANGE TRADE IS FAST DRAWING TO A CLOSE and the LONG TERM BULL TREND IS POISED TO RESUME," BofA projects.

"While Triangle resistance at 99.740 may prove near term sticky, PULLBACKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT for 105.80/106.00, Potentially 109.80. Pullbacks should not breach 96.80/94.90," BofA advises.

Meanwhile, BofA maintains its EUR/USD short trade, particularly following the break of 1.3272, trendline/channel resistance.

"A move below 1.3190 confirms a resumption of its larger bear trend for 1.2823/1.2752 and eventually 1.2457. Bulls need a break of 1.3418 to gain control," BofA adds.

[Abo Abdullah]

German 10 year bonds auction at 1.80%

€4bn went at the highest rate since Feb 2012. They went for 1.57% on July 17 and are currently yielding 1.81%, in the market. Bonds in Spain and Italy are seeing continued falls in their yields.
•Italy 4.20% -3bp
•Spain 4.42% -1bp

Normally a drop in yields for Spain and Italy would be supportive to the Euro. Twinned with the GDP data we are probably seeing a move out of bunds into Spain and Italy as money looks for better yields on an improving European economic picture.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/GBP trading heavy. Bids at .8540 with stops below .8520

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Brief - London

[LONDON, Aug 14 11:30 GMT] EUR/USD opened Asia at 1.3265 after getting weighed down by higher US yields and USD/JPY-led broad USD strength. EUR/USD barely traded during the Asian morning and could only manage a 1.3253/68 range. Talk of decent buying around 1.3230 and selling camped up around 1.3280 helped to hem in the price action. Once again the action was in the USD/JPY, which ended a bit lower after the strong gains on Tues. Into Europe and optimism that the EZ economy is improving was boosted by better than expected German Q2 GDP data, 0.9% y/y versus -1.4% in Q1 and a market call of 0.3%. The French also posted promising data with a 0.5% q/q pace in Q2 verses -0.2% in Q1, the consensus was for a 0.2% figure. EZ growth still negative but the pace of contraction slowed in Q2. EUR/USD plays 1.3239 to 1.3281 on the day and despite holding above last session's 1.3233 low remains a sell. The natural near term target 1.3188, the low from Aug 2. PS Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

[Abo Abdullah]

Euro Weakness Ensues Despite Stronger 2Q’13 GDP

EURUSD – A look at the H4 chart shows that the channel off of the July 10 and August 2 lows (parallel drawn to the July 16 high) has broken to the downside, with the daily RSI and Slow Stochastics (5,3,3) confirming the move lower. Accordingly, a close and hold below $1.3255 today should put pressure to the weekly low near 1.3230; though a more concerted level of support should come in at 1.3180/200. The bearish bias is warranted intraweek so long as 1.3315/20 holds to the upside.

by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

[Abo Abdullah]

Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%):
•EURUSD: 1.3345-1.3600 on the upside, 1.3200-1.3215 on the downside.
•AUDUSD: 0.9145-0.9160 on the upside, 0.9050-0.9065 on the downside.
•USDJPY: 99.60-99.75 on the upside, 95.60-95.75 on the downside.
•GBPUSD: 1.5495-1.5510 on the upside, 1.5405-1.5420 on the downside.
•USDCAD: 1.0395-1.0410 on the upside, 1.0250-1.0265 on the downside.
•NZDUSD: 0.8055-0.8070 on the upside, 0.7905- 0.7920 on the downside.
•EURJPY: 130.70-130.85 on the upside, 127.30-127.45 on the downside.
•EURGBP: 0.8615-0.8630 on the upside, 0.8535-0.8550 on the downside.
•USDCHF: 0.9395-0.9410 on the upside, 0.9275-0.9290 on the downside.
•AUDJPY: 89.70-89.85 on the upside, 88.45-88.60 on the downside.
•EURAUD: 1.4635-1.4650 on the upside, 1.4455-1.4470 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

[Abo Abdullah]

U.S. Dollar Climbing vs. YEN

Weaker than expected, Japanese growth and new Mr. Abe’s comments that he is thinking about reducing the corporate tax rate to help offset the sales tax hike apparently has convinced all the naysayers that a weaker YEN still is very much part of the Abe "construction" plan.

Indeed, since yesterday, USD/YEN has climbed from 95.90 to 98.30, or +2.5%, which my pattern and momentum work argue is the blast-off phase of a new upleg that should propel USD/YEN above resistance at 100, and above the July-rally peak at 101.50, towards 105-107 thereafter.

Only a sudden reversal and plunge beneath the Aug low will invalidate my current bullish outlook for USD/YEN bearish outlook for the YEN.
By Mike Paulenoff

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EU PPI inspired LIFT downside RISK remains

Soft US PPI puts USD on its heels, EUR/USD spikes near 1.3265 area
Effects fading & intra-day stops 1.3265/75 safe, if run gains likely limited though
Asian offers pre-10 DMa (1.3293) likely cap, yield spread roll over to weigh also
EUR crosses heavy & will make EUR/USD rallies tough to come by
Stops sit 1.3230-20 & may attract, if run close beneath 23.6% Fib likely
Opens door to 1.3155/85 sup

[Abo Abdullah]

Middle East accounts noted sellers of GBP/USD in that 1.5510 area

[Abo Abdullah]

Large amounts of USD/JPY options being bought with strikes of 99.75 for overnight

[Abo Abdullah]

Oil toying with $110 as Egypt tensions increase

Egyptian presidency announces a state of emergency across the country