== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS Daily FX Report

FX Technicals

EURUSD BEARISH

With the MACD still below its zero line, the broader risk remains for the pair to resume downside. Support is at 1.2981 ahead of 1.2755. Resistance is at 1.3164 which was defended well on closing basis.

USDJPY BULLISH

With the bull trend intact, focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at 103.74. Support is at 98.27.

GBPUSD NEUTRAL

The sharp advance is trading below the resistance at 1.5283; a closing break will expose 1.5394. Support is at 1.5018 ahead of 1.4814.

USDCHF BULLISH

There is a strong support at 0.9367. With the bull trend intact, the risk is for resumption of upside with resistance at 0.9578 ahead of 0.9839.

AUDUSD BEARISH

With the bear trend intact, focus is on the support at 0.8771 and then, 0.8548. Resistance is at 0.9306.

USDCAD BULLISH

The pair faces a critical support at 1.0317. Will the bull trend intact this should hold on closing basis. Resistance is at 1.0468 ahead of 1.0609.

EURCHF BULLISH

Critical resistance is at 1.2485. A closing break above this would be positive, opening 1.2650. Downside should be limited, with support at 1.2342, which is expected to hold on closing basis.

EURGBP BULLISH

There is a strong resistance at 0.8656, which was tested twice last week. With the momentum tools crossing higher, a closing break above this would trigger further upside. Support is at 0.8575 ahead of 0.8469.

EURJPY BULLISH

Upside is held by the resistance at 131.12 ahead of the key 133.80. Downside should be limited, and we expect the support at 128.04 to hold on closing basis.
Source: UBS FX Strategy

[Abo Abdullah]

Morgan Stanley: GBP/USD rebound has run out of steam; looking to short rallies towards 1.52 with a 1.4975 target

[Abo Abdullah]

Danske Bank: Short AUD/USD at 0.9115 with 0.9201 stop and 0.8910 target

[Abo Abdullah]

BNP Paribas: Short EUR/CAD with 1.3070 target ahead of Wednesday's BoC meeting

[Abo Abdullah]

Leveraged funds getting out of USD long positions after weak retails sales data

USD/JPY - Stops noted growing larger under 99.80

Options Expiries for the NY Cut (10:00AM ET)
USD/JPY - 99.50, 100.00

EUR/USD - 1.3075

GBP/USD - 1.5100

AUD/USD - .9075

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD –Banks noted Start offers building at 1.3080/90 in good size

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY - Stops under 99.80 threatened, bids at 99.50 and 99.20

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - S/T Technical Outlook For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/AUD & SP500

The following are the short term outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: There are still multiple, both bearish as well as bullish, short term wave patterns visible so uncertainty remains high. To get any kind of clarification of the next step the market needs to pass either 1.3123 (= into the 1.32’s) or 1.2999 (completed upside correction gaining credibility).

USD/JPY: Despite the fact that the hourly bear triangle didn’t play out as expected (our Friday call for a downside exit) we remain in a formation that holds a greater likelihood of a continued decline than being the base for a sustained rally. Also the larger picture indicates that we possible are in the midst of a more lengthy congestion, a large bull triangle.

EUR/AUD: Underpinned by a clear three wave downside pattern, confirming the still lasting up trend, the market broke to a fresh trend high. Today’s minor setback, if ending at current levels or lower, risks creating a bearish harami candle formation which in such case also probably will be supported by an equally bearish bear divergence (stochastic peak lower at this peak in price compared to the June one).

S&P500: Even though we so far haven’t printed an intraday record high the market at least did print a fresh all time high close, fulfilling part of the goal. We are however also back at overbought levels not seen since the May peak so another 555d ma band setback will probably take off in the near term.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Overall short-term sentiment is USD-negative; poor retail sales data and consequent lowering of GDP forecasts being the driving force

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - Further EUR/USD Chopping S/T; Stay Sidelined For Now -

EUR/USD following a week of sharp reversals, the market starts this week likely to consolidate, notices Commerzbank.

"The Elliot wave count on the 60 and 240 minute charts is suggesting that there is scope for further strength, but that the market is likely to struggle to make much impact beyond the 1.3208 high we have just seen . Dips are currently indicated to hold very near term in the 1.2985/40 band," CB clarifies.

"While further chopping around within the 1.2940-1.3275 limits is likely we look for the more important resistance at 1.3386/1.3422 to hold – this is the 2011-2013 downtrend, the 200 week ma and the June high. While capped here an overall downside bias will persist," CB adds.

In line with this view, CB advises clients to stay sidelined for new and plan to sell on a further bounce into 1.3200, and 1.3250, with a stop at 1.3280

[Abo Abdullah]

HSBC - Time To Buy USD/CHF For 0.9840: A New Macro Trade

HSBC entered into a new long macro tactical USD/CHF position at 0.9480 with a target 0.9840 and a stop at 0.9340.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Quick spike of EUR strength due to those closing out for the end of European session

Repetition

EUR/USD –Banks noted Start offers building at 1.3080/90 in good size

[Abo Abdullah]

Fitch downgraded the European Financial Stability Facility to AA+ from AAA.

It’s the sovereign debt firewall. Fitch says the move was prompted by the downgrade of France’s long-term rating on July 12.