== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Asian account offers noted in AUD/USD at .9150,this is paired with a strong technical resistance level. Stops above this area in good size

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/USD worked through offers at .9150 as real money steadily buys this pair. Next offers in good size at .9200

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/GBP – Demand from a UK name into .8420, but stops below that area still noted in good size

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Techs SHORT for 1.3020

With prices only 20 pips from our prior fade pt, we went to the market
Closed Tues below the 10-DMA; today's trading is wholly below it at 1.3295
More bearish is the MA itself beginning to fall for the first time since July 10
Target is 61.8% of the July-Aug rise at 1.3018 & by Jul 12/15 highs
Stop at 1.3355 is above Monday's high

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse - Maintains EUR/USD Short & GBP/USD Long

Credit Suisse maintains its short EUR/USD position from 1.3300, with a stop at 1.3435, and a target at 1.3025.

"EUR/USD has extended its turn lower from just shy of the 1.3418 June high, and is weighing on price support at 1.3232. We look for its removal to test a more important level at the 1.3190 pivot. A break here would set a better top for the 200-day average at 1.3109, where we would expect a bounce. A break would be expected in due course though for 1.3077/67, with better support seen at 1.3002/2994. The immediate risk can stay lower while below 1.3270/77," CS outlines its technical bias on the pair.

Meanwhile , CS maintains a long GBP/USD position with a stop below 1.5389, for 1.5675.

"Above 1.5529/30 should see a move back to 1.5560/75, and through here to see further strength to 1.5603 next," CS adds.

[Abo Abdullah]

JP Morgan - EUR/USD: Make Or Break At 1.3190/66

EUR/USD lost additional ground yesterday and stayed in a very tight range today.

This, according to JP Morgan, certainly increases the probability of having seen the top at 1.3401 and decreased chances of revisiting the key-T-junction at 1.3483/1.3521 (76.4 %/pivot).

"But as long as decisive supports between 1.3190/66 (pivots) and 1.3109 (200 DMA) are not taken out, the backdoor for another attempt higher if not for an extension into 1.4074 (monthly trend) and possibly to 1.4259/83 (76.4 % on higher scale/pivot)remains open," JPM projects

[Abo Abdullah]

EU the UNCORRELATED currency

EUR/USD's long drift has meant that correlations between it and many markets have broken down, apart from UST yields. A quick glance across 60-day correlations with some major G10 pairs and other markets shows just how much the old risk-off/risk-on regime has faded and left individual asset classes to their own devices. Only rates jump out above a +0.6/-0.6 threshold in showing strength with G10 and DXY, and with that US rates and DXY standing out the most at +0.70. Still, DXY remains a slave to EUR and its lack of direction and correlation. Even the move up in UST yields has not been enough to help spark a sustained DXY uptrend. With equity correlations very weak across G10 FX, it will take a sharper move in US or German yields to shake EUR/USD out of its lethargy.

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - EUR/USD Still Targets 1.3188 Support; Stay Short & Tighten Stops

EUR/USD is still coming off its current August high at 1.3401 and targets the 1.3208/1.3188 support zone, notes Commerzbank.

"It is where the July 11 high and the current August low were made. Only a drop through this support area will alleviate recent upside pressure. Failure here will target the 1.3000 region. Loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 July and April lows," CS projects.

"Only a rise above 1.3420 would suggest ongoing strength to 1.3500/20, the minor psychological level and 13th February high. This is regarded as the last defence for the 1.3711 February high. We favour a continued sell-off, however", CS adds.

In line with this view, CB maintains a short EUR/USD from 1.3383 tightening the stops to cost and keeping the target at 1.3190.

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/CAD is down to 1.0330 from 1.0370 early in European trading.

The Canadian dollar got a lift from a few factors today:
•Commodities are stronger today (CRB index up 0.7%)
•European data points to better growth
•Softer US PPI shows slightest risk of disinflation (no taper)

In the bigger picture, it’s all noise and I think the technicals illustrate that:

The trend for nearly a year has been a slow grind higher but the thing to watch is the wedge that has formed above parity since May. Go with a break in either direction.

Ultimately, expectations of the Canadian economy are so firmly anchored that CAD is like the rock of the forex market. What will probably determine the next move is the US side of the equation.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR Briefing - New York

[NEW YORK August 14, 2013 20:02 GMT] Europe was relatively tame but the mkt retained a bearish bias as the o/n lift halted by the 10 DMA (1.3293) and 1.3285/90 Asian offers. Europe’s bears ignored better than f/c German & EU GDP figures & pressed on the pair to have it near 1.3245 at NY’s open. Some early USD strength saw the pair dip near the o/n low (1.3239) but the slide quickly reversed. July US PPI was well below estimates. This sent US bond yields lower across the curve and the USD followed them down. EUR/USD quickly spiked up & hit a NY high of 1.3271 but bulls couldn’t muster further gains. With two year spreads widening (even after the PPI) in favor of the USD and Asian sellers looming near 1.3290 the pair’s rally began to fade. It traded just beneath 1.3250 before settling the day near 1.3255. Multiple attempts to close beneath the 23.6% Fib of 1.2755-1.3401 have failed but it only looks to be a matter of time before it happens. Daily RSI is biased down and the 10 DMA is exerting bearish influence as stops are building beneath 1.3230. A clean break of the 1.3230/50 area should accelerate the slide & open the door to key support near 1.3155/65. (CR) Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

[Abo Abdullah]

EU watch the 50 day MA

Recent rally ended at 200 week MA / June highs near 1.34
Pullback likely to retest key 1.32 level / 50 day MA at 1.318
Daily closes below the 50 day MA would signal bears are strong
July low likely to be taken out in coming weeks - bearish pattern

EU inside day targets 1.3160

Inside day & tight range, despite further positive data
Momentum studies cresting or head lower - fresh bearish 5 & 10 dma cross
Rejection of upper Bolli last week targets 1.3157 rising lower band & 38.25
Cross flow likely to dominate in Asia - tight consolidation expected
Offshore 1.3239/1.3281 range initial sup/res
Chart:http://link.reuters.com/ten42v

[Abo Abdullah]

Morgan Stanley's - Triple-Bet On The Yen

Although Morgan Stanley is bearish on the yen long term seeing it hitting 107 against the dollar by the year end, MS is strongly bullish on it short term. To express this short term bullish view, MS is making a triple-bet on the JPY against the EUR, GBP, and NZD. Here are the details of these tactical positions:

1- Short EUR/JPY from 131.50, Stop: 132.10, Target: 121.00

Rationale: "Abenomics faces some meaningful challenges in the coming weeks, which may weigh on expectations for sustainable growth and inflation as well as risk sentiment. We look for JPY to trade higher in the near term as structural reforms prove slow and difficult to implement and the consumption tax weighs on investors’ minds."

2- Short NZD/JPY from 77.00, Stop: 79.10, Target: 69.00

Rationale: "New Zealand has the worst external position in the G10 and we think that rising funding costs will strain the country’s economy and NZD. Meanwhile, the slow pace of reform in Japan is causing some investors to liquidate Japanese equity holdings and associated currency hedges. We expect this process to continue over the coming weeks, causing JPY to strengthen further. The key risk to this trade is further cyclical improvement in New Zealand’s economy."

3- Short GBP/JPY from 152.3, Stop: 154.2, Target: 138.0 (entered today Aug 14)

Rationale: "We favor a lower GBP/JPY as real rate expectations weigh on the pair. Forward guidance from the BoE should keep real rates low, while investors are likely to question a sustainable move out of deflation in Japan, at least in the near term."

[Abo Abdullah]

Asia Market Report

USD/JPY
•Offers ahead of 98.50 in good size
•Buy stops above the mid figure growing large
•Bids at 98.80
•Sell stops below 97.90 and 97.70

AUD/USD
•Offers at .9160 and from .9190 through .9200
•Buy stops above both offer levels
•Bids scattered from .9080 through .9070 along with some sell stops
•More sell stops noted below .9070

NZD/USD
•Offers at .8060 and into .8100
•Buy stops above .8060
•Bids at .8000 and .7940
•Sell stops under .7990

EUR/USD
•Offers spread from 1.3280 up to 1.3300
•Buy stops in that same area
•Bids at 1.3240
•Sell stops in decent size under 1.3230