== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

Morgan Stanley Holds EUR/USD Short & A limit Order To Sell Cable

Morgan Stanley maintains a macro tactical short EUR/USD trade from 1.3300 with a stop at 1.3440, and a target at 1.2700.

"We expect EUR to weaken over coming months as the market increasingly prices in German political developments. First, polls suggest Germany will maintain its current CDU/FDP government rather than a more EMU-friendly grand coalition. Second, the upcoming Constitutional Court decision could undermine the effectiveness of OMT. And despite better leading indicators, credit growth remains tepid," MS says as a rationale behind this call.

Along with that, MS also shares the consensus view that there is a strong bullish environment for the USD over the medium term on the potential of the Fed QE tapering.

Meanwhile MS has an active limit order to sell GBP/USD at 1.5570 with a stop at 1.5750 and a target at 1.4800.

"We believe that the market has misinterpreted the Bank of England’s forward guidance and now look to reestablish short GBP positions. The 7% unemployment threshold implies that rates will remain unchanged until 3Q16. This should further depress real rates, which are already well into negative territory. We believe that Governor Carney intends to boost UK asset-liability ratios to fight debt deleveraging - as such, we elect ‘not to fight the BoE," MS says as a rationale behind this call.

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse - Maintains EUR/USD Short, Will Reverse On Stop

EUR/USD has extended last Friday’s reversal and has undercut former accelerated trendline props, now at 1.3362, notes Credit Suisse.

This, according to CS, leaves the immediate focus on the important level at the 1.3190 and on the 200-day average at 1.31074, where CS would expect a bounce.

"Above 1.3334 aims at 1.3345/62, through which can aim at 1.3390 ahead of the 1.3401/18 highs," CS adds.

In line with this view, Credit Suisse maintains its short EUR/USD position from 1.3300, with a stop at 1.3435, and a target at 1.3025. CS now plans to reverse into long on triggering this stop.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR Briefing - New York

[NEW YORK August 13, 2013 19:54 GMT] Rallies o/n failed ahead of s-t 1.3320 res as real money accts were noted in the 1.3315/2 area & solid Asian offers were touted near 1.3330. NY opened near the mid-point of the o/n range and it sat there into July US retail sales. The sales data was solid even though the headline number missed estimates. The ex-auto number beat and June’s data was revised upward to negate the headline miss and then put a solid bid into the USD. EUR/USD nose-dived & cleared s-t spec bids into 1.3270, ran stops sub-1.3265 & hit a low of 1.3233. S-T spec accounts sold into the lows in an attempt to run 1.3230 stops but Asian bids halted the slide. The pair began a rebound into Europe’s close & the ascent gathered some steam as comments from the Fed’s Lockhart were deemed dovish by the mkt. The pair railed but to 1.3270 but pulled back a bit & sat near 1.3265 at the close. Daily RSI is bearish & the close below the 10 DMA should aid the bears. The mkt is ignoring waning USD yield advantage for now but should German GDP miss f/c we could see EUR/USD close beneath the 23.6% Fib of 1.2755-1.3401 & make a run to 1.3155/65 support. (CR) Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Buck strength weighs test of 1.3200 beckons

Strong German & EZ ZEW supported, robust U.S. Retail Sales weighed
Opens -0.25% with momentum studies cresting or heading south
Ma's conflict - last week's rejection of upper Bolli targets 1.3131 lower band
Offshore 1.3233 low & prior 1.3275/80 range low initial sup/res
Expect tight cross driven ranges in Asia

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EU 50 day MA KEY to outlook

Price once again stalled at 200 week MA at 1.34
Pullback likely to test key 50 day MA / 1.32 support area
Daily closes below would highlight strength of bears
Only daily closes above 1.34 will open up higher targets
Chart: http://link.reuters.com/tef42v

[Abo Abdullah]

Asia Market Report

Market Briefings

•Asian accounts bought AUD/USD when it got to .9080
•A large fund mistakenly sold hard into EUR/GBP which caused large stops to trigger, system funds to join in, and finally real money sold as well
•Asian accounts bought EUR/USD earlier in the session which helped slow down the fall
•Sovereign accounts also covered short positions in EUR/USD, helping slow the downward move
•USD/CHF saw early demand from leveraged and model funds
•EUR is generally at a pivotal point here; a strong move below 1.3200/1.3190 will shift sentiment to the downside
•AUD already has moved into negative sentiment territory; without a rally out of this hole we should expect to see more selling
•USD strength very evident across the board as we move closer to the near-guaranteed QE taper
•JPY staying weak on talk of a potential corporate tax cut as well as USD strength being expressed again JPY

USD/JPY
•Offers into 98.50, more at 99.00 in good size
•Buy stops above 98.50 decent sized and have been eyed by short-term predators
•Bids ahead of 97.50 but greater demand at 97.00
•Sell stops beneath 97.70 gaining size

AUD/USD
•Offers tight as many aim to sell rallies: .9100 through .9110, .9140 through .9150; .9180
•Buy stops above all three bid levels
•Buying interest at .9070 , but greater at .9050
•Sell stops into .9060

NZD/USD
•Offers still solid at .8000, more selling interest from .8040 through .8050
•Buy stops above that big figure and bigger over .8050
•Bids noted at .7950, .7930, and .7880
•Sell stops under .7950 and .7900

EUR/USD
•Light offers at 1.3280 but more serious offers ahead of 1.3310
•Buy stops above 1.3320 in good size
•Bids at 1.3230, 1.3200, and 1.3150
•Sell stops under 1.3220

KEY NEWS
•Westpac Consumer Sentiment previous reading –0.10% (00:30 GMT)
•Wage Price Index QoQ expected 0.8%; YoY expected 3.0% (01:30 GMT)

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EU bias is for more LOSSES

Scope for the 30-dma @1.3167
Daily close back below the 10-dma @1.3295 bearish
Looking to get short @1.3290 in anticipation for losses
Daily momentum while positive, is off its highest readings

[Abo Abdullah]

EU growth optimisim may be premature

Many are lauding the euro zone economy's return to growth in the second quarter. Sentiment has been further boosted by the number, which at 0.3% qtr/qtr was above the 0.2% consensus. [ID:nB5N0F1028] Maybe the optimism should be reined in. The best that can be hoped for is growth bumping along the bottom for some time. Germany may be cruising along, but peripheral euro countries such as Spain and Italy are still face huge hurdles - including austerity, debt and crippling levels of unemployment - before momentum picks up. Chart of breakdown of euro countries GDP growth: http://link.reuters.com/men99s

[Abo Abdullah]

NZD/USD - offers clustered between 0.8050 and 0.8060 with buy stops above, bids building at 0.80

AUD/USD - offers now at 0.9150 with more buy stops above

AUD/USD - stops above 0.9120 triggered, Australian bank and Real Money account noted buyers

[Abo Abdullah]

Morgan Stanley looking to buy USD/JPY and bearish on EUR

Higher US yields should increase the interest rate differential between the US and Japan and encourage further portfolio outflows from the latter. The potential for a corporate tax cut would likely increase earnings and equity prices, and therefore boost the Nikkei. The strong correlation between Japanese stocks and USD/JPY suggests further near term upside for the spot. The bank is looking to buy at 96.50 with a 101.00 target and a stop down at 95.50.

Greece requiring another aid package, the German general election outcome and the upcoming German Constitutional Court decision in October all point to an increase in the EUR risk premium. The spotlight is on Greece. Should Greece head towards new elections, the EUR would drop fast

[Abo Abdullah]

US Market Report

Market Briefings

•Strong EUR/CHF demand ran into standing supply from macro hedge funds around 1.2420
•Real money and Australian bank noted buyers of AUD/USD
•Macro funds and Japanese exporters sold USD/JPY in early London
•Profit-taking flow from short-term players also noted
•Asian account sold GBP/USD around 1.55 capping the post-BoE rally
•Corporate demand for EUR/USD noted, but Asian accounts keen sellers
•Sentiment remains mixed and flows are light
•Weak reaction to news/data events indicates low trading interest/risk appetite amongst institutional players

EUR/USD
•Bids at 1.3230, in better size at 1.32
•Sell stops noted around 1.3220 and beneath the big figure
•Offers at 1.3260, larger from 1.3280 up to 1.33
•Buy stops above 1.33 in solid size

GBP/USD


•Bids at 1.5450 and 1.5430
•Sell stops at 1.5420
•Offers in good size at 1.5520
•Buy stops building above through 1.5530

USD/JPY
•Bids at 97.80 and larger at 97.50
•Sell stops beneath both levels
•Offers at 98.50 from Japanese exporters, more at 98.80 and solid around 99.00
•Buy stops above the mid figure through 98.60

AUD/USD
•Bids from miners at 0.9080, better demand from mixed accounts at 0.9050
•Sell stops sizeable sub-0.9050
•Offers at 0.9150
•Buy stops above through 0.9160

EUR/JPY
•Bids from 130.00 down to 129.80
•Sell stops beneath 129.80
•Offers from 130.80 up to 131.00
•Buy stops in good size above the big figure through 131.20

KEY NEWS
•12:30 GMT (08:30 EST) - US Producer Price Index

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, & AUD/USD

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: 1.3290 before down. The bounce from yesterday's low is not major, but should ideally come in a 3-wave fashion (“A-B-C”). The first two may be in place and the 3rd ought to stretch for 1.3290 before down again. 1.3188 is a key ref to keep in mind below.
USD/JPY: Rechecking 97.60 before up. Gains were notable yesterday with a few semi-important refs easily broken. The 21day Fibo-adjusted "Base line" however seems to be respected and a mid-body (97.60) retest looks likely before testing overhead resistance again. Newborn longs would likely scramble for the exit should the market unexpectedly fall and close below the 5day average low, now at 96.50.
AUD/USD: Rechecking thought 0.9084/35 support. The market respected overhead dynamic resistance in the attempt higher (to reduce a medium- long-term stretch). The near-term move lower should meet buyers in the 0.9084/0.9035 zone – from where another attempt should be made to/into the short-term Fibo-adjusted "Ichimoku cloud".