== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

European Market Report

EUR/USD
•Bids noted at 1.3280 with better demand at 1.3250 and 1.3230
•Sell stops are building beneath the mid figure and around the 1.3220 level
•Offers seen at 1.3310/20, including sovereign name; more at 1.3350 and heavy ahead of 1.34
•Buy stops resting at 1.3330 and in good size above 1.3350

GBP/USD
•Bids at 1.5500; larger at 1.5450 and 1.5430
•Sell stops accumulating sub-1.5450
•Offers lined up at 1.5550 and larger at 1.56
•Buy stops building above the mid figure through 1.5560

USD/JPY
•Bids in light size at 97.50; larger at 97.20 and 97.00
•Sell stops sub-97.50 are solid; sizeable sub-97.00 through 96.80
•Offers at 98.20 and larger at 98.50
•Buy stops accumulating above the mid figure through 98.60 in size

AUD/USD
•Bids at 0.9150 and strong at 0.9120; more demand seen at 0.91 and 0.9080
•Sell stops growing around 0.9110 and larger beneath the big figure through 0.9090
•Offers from 0.92 to 0.9220 in decent size; large ahead of the 0.93 level
•Buy stops above 0.92 sizeable

EUR/JPY
•Bids at 129.50 and from 129.20 down to 129.00
•Sell stops beneath the mid figure through 129.40
•Offers clustered between 130.40 and 130.60; larger pre-131.00
•Buy stops above 130.60 and in good size above 131.00

KEY NEWS
•08.30 GMT (04:30 EST) - UK Retail Sales

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EU stops tripped hourly overbought techs CAP

USD led lower by JPY on Aso corp tax cut denial
1.3285 stops tripped in sharp 1.3311 spike in Asia
Earlier 1.3254 low & Tues 1.3317 high initial sup/res
More model/momentum stops & 1.3320/25

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/USD - bids at 0.9150 and larger at 0.9120; offers at 0.9200/20 with buy stops in the mix

EUR/GBP - stops in good size sub-0.8530

NZD/USD - offers at 0.81 with buy stops above; bids building at 0.8050

USD/CAD - bids at 1.0280 with sell stops beneath; offers 1.0340/50, buy stops above through 1.0360

USD/CHF - bids at 0.93 and in better size at 0.9270; offers at 0.9350 and larger at 0.9380

Early demand for EUR/JPY noted; offers from 130.40 up to 130.60 with buy stops above

GBP/USD - offers at 1.5550 with buy stops above; bids resting at 1.55 with sell stops through 1.5490

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/CAD - corporate demand noted at 1.0280

GBP/USD - Asian account offers ahead of the 1.56 barrier option have capped the rally so far, bids building at 1.5550 with sell stops noted around 1.5540

[Abo Abdullah]

EU bias reamins to the DOWNSIDE

Remain short @1.3270 for losses to the 30-dma, currently @1.3179
A close below the 30-dma will accelerate further down
Daily momentum closed flat on Wed
Potential to register a series of negative readings in the days ahead
Only a close back above the 10-dma @1.3301 defers

[Abo Abdullah]

Goldman Sachs FX Desk Report

Summary of our Traders’ Strategies:

EUR: EURUSD respected the right levels as we stalled ahead of Tuesday mornings ZEW inspired highs (1.3311 vs. 1.3317) leaving the short term stops through 1.3320 safe for now
JPY: On the day watch 97.50-40 level for further weak stops and if done we enter the buy zone towards 97.20, with a tight stop below 96.70
GBP: All in all it remains a chop and as such better to wait
AUD: The range trade is back in play – selling around 0.9170 risking 0.9220 area

EUR

A combination of factors lead the dollar lower across the board – Bullard stating that he is “undecided” over whether he would back September tapering (but known dove), a Bloomberg poll suggesting that Yellen is the more qualified candidate in the Bernanke successor race (but Obama makes the decision), and the straw that broke the camels back - Aso/Suga’s denial of Abe’s corporation tax cut sending USDJPY into a spiral and the dollar as a whole with it. EURUSD respected the right levels as we stalled ahead of Tuesday mornings ZEW inspired highs (1.3311 vs. 1.3317) leaving the short term stops through 1.3320 safe for now. Draghi will probably start to get a little uncomfortable should the sell off in fixed income continue at the current pace – we are still 3 weeks away from the next ECB meet and we’ve seen how quickly the fixed income fire can spread in the last 48hrs with little in the way of fuel. 1.3350 houses the more sturdy stops ahead of the 1.3420 June FOMC highs with 1.3230/40 now good support on the run down to the 1.3190 pivot.

JPY

Well just in case we did not take Suga at his word, we have subsequently had Aso and Amari out overnight confirming that Abe has not asked his cabinet for Corporation Tax Cuts and the costs and benefits of this issue will need to be analysed. As Aso points out the % of Japanese firms paying corporate tax is actually quite low and therefore may not have an immediate impact. Capex and R&D is where incentives should be focused, as the govt attempts to release some capital from firm’s balance sheets, as a more immediate way to stimulate the economy. This appears to us to make more sense than blanket Corp Tax cuts, however it has disappointed the market and caused a subsequent broader dollar sell off from what was an already a fragile rally. Once again JGB’s remaining resilient from the broader FI sell off, however our principle driver the Nikkei reverts to its old ways, putting in yet another dismal performance overnight – it will take a break of the multi-year yield highs in US 10 yrs through 2.76% for FI to provide a further kicker to the USDJPY trade. On the day watch 97.50-40 level for further weak stops and if done we enter the buy zone towards 97.20, with a tight stop below 96.70. 98.30-50 is still the level to watch on the topside where exporter and tech levels have capped us so far.

GBP

Little to say - risk is close to zero across the board and the lack of anything dovish from the minutes yesterday coupled with firm claimant count numbers quickly prompted us to close sterling shorts and re-assess. The sell off in UK fixed income continues to gather pace and increasingly, so question marks over whether the unemployment rate will really hold above 7% for 3 years in an environment of better growth keeps sterling in the cross fire with some trying to play the CB divergence theme but others pointing to the better data now as the challenge for the MPC seemingly less focused on the currency as a vehicle for rebalancing. All in all it remains a chop and as such better to wait. levels - 1.5580 recent highs - 1.5420 support, cross 0.8530 / 0.8620.

AUD

USD complex comes under pressure overnight with the JPY rallying taking AUD through the stops at 0.9160. The range held yesterday with 0.9070/80 acting as the support after the impressive consumer confidence number which provided a little more balance to the recent data. The franchise saw light profit taking but the rally caught some out who had established USD longs on the moves in US rates with local stops late on at 0.9140 – 50. The remainder of the short term orderbook cleared out in Asia with highs of 0.9183 and the range trade back in play – selling around 0.9170 risking 0.9220 area. US data likely to be the key driver and important that US yields can hold onto gains for the USD to stage a recovery. Support at the overnight lows of 0.9119 with 0.9070/80 below that.

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, & EUR/GBP

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and EUR/GBP as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Rechecking near-term resistance. The bounce from Tue's low has become somewhat bigger than initially thought. The recently broken ascending line of support should now work as resistance together with a micro-term 161.8% Fibo projection ref and the 8day "Conversion line" (the rolling 8day high/low average), now at 1.3318. The downside key ref to break to flip this timeframe back into bearish is now located at 1.3233, but 1.3188 is of course also of interest still.

USD/JPY: Mid-body support retest. Gains were halted at the 21day Fibo-adjusted "Base line" yesterday. Selling from there has forced the pair back to retest the Aug13 mid-body point at 97.60. Below this level would move focus to dynamic refs at 97.20 & 96.98 both thought to provide downside shelter.

AUD/USD: Rechecking thought 0.9084/35 support. The overhead "Ichimoku cloud" is back under investigation again following proof that the market respects the Fiboadjusted short-term "Base line". Also over the Aug12 high of 0.8221 would target the late Jul peak at 0.9320. Over the latter topside ref could get a medium-term correction rolling, possibly for 0.97\98 before down.

EUR/GBP: Increasingly short-term bearish picture. Buyers failed to hold stand at 0.8580. To find a lower session close than yesterday, one has to look back into early Jul. Extension below yesterday's 0.8528 low would target 0.8485/70 and later possibly also the mid-0.84s/high 0.83s.

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Agricole - EUR/USD: Trading The US Manuf Data On Thurs

A long line of US data has the potential to prompt a USD rebound today. With July CPI widely expected unchanged, investors’ focus will be trained upon labour and manufacturing evidence.

In terms of labour, the 4 week averages of both initial and continuing claims continue to support payrolls improvement.

We expect no disruption to those trends from today’s releases. More importantly, a further improvement in August Empire Manufacturing (cons. 10.0) and a potential positive July Industrial Production surprise (cons. 0.3%MoM) could motivate renewed USD demand.

As such we look for EUR/USD to re-test support at 1.3250 in thin summer trading today.

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

EUR/USD: (Bullish) There is a strong support at 1.3154, as long as this holds the risks remains for resumption of upside. Resistance is at 1.3337 ahead of 1.3417.

USD/JPY: (Neutral) Resistance is at 98.67, a close above this would extend the recent strength to 99.95 ahead of 101.53. Support is at 95.81.

GBP/USD: (Bullish) Any downside will be limited, with a strong support at 1.5394. Critical resistance is at 1.5598. A closing break above this would trigger further upside towards 1.5782.

AUD/USD: (Bearish) Only a closing break above resistance at 0.9209 would prolong the recent recovery to 0.9320 and then 0.9431. Support is at 0.9035 ahead of 0.8848

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Merrill - Cable Strength Should Be Sold & USD/JPY Pullbacks Should Be Bought

The Elliott Wave setup in GBP/USD is too beautiful to ignore, notes Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"While the very short-term (24/48 hours) risk is for one last push higher, THESE GAINS MUST BE SOLD for a resumption of the larger bear trend for 1.4783/1.4767 and below," BofA advises.

"OUR VIEW IS WRONG ON A PUSH ABOVE 1.5752," BofA adds.

For USD/JPY, BofA thinks that its 2.5m range trade is fast drawing to a close and the long-term bull trend is poised to resume.

"While Triangle resistance at 99.65 may prove near-term sticky, PULLBACKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT for 105.80/106.00, Potentially 109.80," BofA advises.

"Pullbacks should not breach 96.80/94.90," BofA adds.

In its technical portfolio, BofA maintains a tactical short EUR/USD position from 1.3355, with a stop at 1.3420, and a target at 1.2821.

[Abo Abdullah]

Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal
or saturation reach 90%):

EURUSD: 1.3330-1.3345 on the upside, 1.3200-1.3215 on the downside.

AUDUSD: 0.9250-0.9265 on the upside, 0.9040-0.9055 on the downside.

USDJPY: 98.75-98.90 on the upside, 97.15-97.30 on the downside.

GBPUSD: 1.5585-1.5600 on the upside, 1.5395-1.5410 on the downside.

USDCAD: 1.0375-1.0390 on the upside, 1.0280-1.0295 on the downside.

NZDUSD: 0.8105-0.8120 on the upside, 0.7930-0.7945 on the downside.

EURJPY: 130.60-130.75 on the upside, 129.45-129.60 on the downside.

EURGBP: 0.8605-0.8620 on the upside, 0.8485-0.8500 on the downside.

USDCHF: 0.9390-0.9405 on the upside, 0.9290-0.9305 on the downside.

AUDJPY: 90.05-90.20 on the upside, 88.90-89.05 on the downside.

EURAUD: 1.4615-1.4630 on the upside, 1.4415-1.4430 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

[Abo Abdullah]

Hedge fund buying EUR/JPY at 130.20

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Capped

Upside remains capped at 1.3317 where the high of a bear wedge continuation pattern on Tuesday and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent 1.3401/1.3233 decline lie hand-in-hand. A 1.618 Fibonacci extension target also lands at 1.3317, which is now considered to be a pivotal level. A body of congestive resistance between 1.3335 and 1.3342 provides backup. Loss of support at 1.3278 and 1.3268 would bring the 1.3225/33 area back into the immediate picture, threatening a downtrend extension towards 1.3188. EUR/USD is at 0.1.3284. Market Profile is an intraday charting technique, seeking to evaluate market value as it develops during the day. The technique displays price on a vertical axis, and time/activity on a horizontal axis, creating bell curves that show normal and variable distributions in financial markets.

[Abo Abdullah]

Macro funds noted buyers of EUR/CHF and USD/CHF