== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

EU trend is UP major resistance above 1.3400

Opens +0.34% - CitiFX Wire saw chunky demand tripping option stops into 1.3400
1.3417 June high in view - rising upper Bolli caps - now 1.3408 resistance
5, 10 & 20 dma's trend higher with momentum studies
Close below 1.3238 rising 20 dma needed to negate uptrend
Expect AUD & JPY cross flow to dominate in Asia

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS Daily FX Report

FX Technicals

EUR/USD- BULLISH The pair is trading within the striking distance if key resistance at 1.3417. A close above this would open 1.3520. Support is at 1.3328 ahead of the critical 1.3190.

USD/JPY- BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, focus is on further downside, with critical support at 93.57. Resistance is at 97.82 ahead of 99.95.

GBP/USD- BULLISH Resistance focus is at 1.5598. A closing break above this would trigger further upside towards 1.5782. Support is at 1.5485.

USD/CHF- BEARISH With the trending and momentum indicators pointing lower, focus in on further downside. There is a strong support at 0.9130. Resistance is at 0.9230 ahead of 0.9297.

AUD/USD- BEARISH Upside should be limited with a strong resistance at 0.9139. The risk is for resumption of downside from here. Support is at 0.8992 ahead of 0.8848.

USD/CAD- NEUTRAL Following the test of resistance at 1.0428, the pair came under sharp selling pressure. There is a strong support at 1.0241. A closing break below this would be negative.

EUR/CHF -BEARISH With the trending and momentum pointing lower potential remains for further downside. Support is at 1.2268 ahead of 1.2219. Upside should be limited with a strong resistance is at 1.2348.

EUR/GBP -BULLISH The cross came under sharp selling pressure and tested the support at 0.8584, but failed to close below it. With the bull trend intact potential is for a move above 0.8731 to test the critical resistance at 0.8815.

EUR/JPY -NEUTRAL Support focus is at 127.94. A closing break below this would confirm the settlement of MACD below its zero line. Resistance is at 130.10 ahead of 133.80.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

Goldman Sachs FX Desk Report

EUR: We don’t have any real appetite to participate at current levels
JPY: After the squeezes we have seen in the other popular positions this week (Cable, Aussie), appetite to get involved will be lower key than usual
GBP: I am no longer positioned in sterling, indeed our risk across the board is as light as it has been all year with low conviction levels and a lack of appetite ahead of September
AUD: The risk for the AUD remains that we see further pain to the topside with stops building between 0.9160-80
CAD: We remain flat for now looking to be reactive to the data

The process of position cleansing continues with each of the popular dollar crosses getting hit one by one. The strong peripheral performance yesterday allowed the Euro to join the party as we printed on a 1.34 handle for the first time since June. Its always hard to know how far position unwind moves will extend, I suspect positioning has been greatly reduced though AUD feels like it might have another round of pain to come. The risk for the EUR may still be to the topside if the periphery continues to behave and people need an alternative to the dollar but I don’t have any real appetite to participate at current levels. Support comes in at last weeks 1.3345 high and to maintain the upward momentum this level really needs to hold, at least on a closing basis. The first level of resistance comes in at 1.3417 the high seen just prior to the June FOMC, and then further out 1.3500.

USDJPY respects the 95.80 support level perfectly as we touch 95.81 lows before rallying back to settle at 96.50/60 as the Nikkei stabilises after its 5-6% free fall, and 10yrs take back 2.60%. 97.50 is still the topside pivot that needs to be regained in order reassure markets, but this will probably depend on the Q2 GDP print early Monday morning given how little we have on the horizon going into the weekend. Cross Yen supply has dried up a little over the past 24hrs as a general shift in the dollar leaves them treading water. The overnight highs up at 96.98 will put up some short term resistance ahead of 97.50, but after the squeezes we have seen in the other popular positions this week (Cable, Aussie), appetite to get involved will be lower key than usual.

GBP remains relentlessly bid - yesterday saw us take the stops out above 1.5540 all the way up to 1.5580 but the pullbacks remain shallow and the risk remains for a further squeeze towards 1.5750 area pre June FOMC highs. That being said I am no longer positioned in sterling, indeed our risk across the board is as light as it has been all year with low conviction levels and a lack of appetite ahead of September in what are proving to be exceptionally choppy FX markets. Intra-day for those still playing above 1.5580, our orderbook shows some offers towards 1.5620 but real money bids now emerging towards 1.5450/ 80 region so it should remain supported on dips. The cross is sidelined but 0.8560 remains important on a closing basis.

AUD No direct forward guidance from the SOMP but RBA maintains clear easing bias. Downgrades to growth/inflation forecasts and a tone tilted towards the notion that the non-mining sector is not responding to rate cuts quick enough. In general a fairly consistent message from the RBA given the past two communications we have seen and maybe at the margin the market a little disappointed we didn’t see more explicit forward guidance. The currency remains much at the mercy of positioning and the broader USD unwind and the SOMP evidence that the markets appetite to fade AUD on this rally is diminishing. Given the large USD unwinds elsewhere the risk for the AUD remains that we see further pain to the topside with stops building between 0.9160-80 as AUD shorts being the last real developed position left in G10. The moves in the last 48 hours have taken us to the sidelines for now – levels to watch: support at 0.9080-87 with 0.9040 below that, topside as above 0.9160-80 the stop area which could open a clean run back towards 0.9300.

The last USD to hold up finally falls with stops triggered in USDCAD back through the 55dma. As we highlighted yesterday USDCAD had remained extremely resilient given the broader moves in the USD elsewhere and the demand which had kept it propped up finally ran out. Into the key employment release today positioning is cleaner but some residual longs remain with further PL stops back through 1.0300. Given how the USD opens there’s a chance these stops don’t last until the number with the 100dma at 1.0277 the key support that needs to hold. Having reduced our long earlier in the week and given the volatility in the employment series we remain flat for now looking to be reactive to the data. On the topside resistance band forms at the weeks highs 1.0445 – 1.0450.

[Abo Abdullah]

Morgan Stanley Opening Comment

G10 FX was fairly subdued overnight as evidenced by the sub 20 pip ranges seen in Eur/Usd, cable and Usd/Chf. Aud remained in focus after a less dovish than expected RBA quarterly policy statement where GDP growth for this year was revised to 2.25% from 2.5%, whilst growth for next year was left unchanged. All-in-all, it's been a good week for the Aud, up over 3% vs the dollar & rallying for a 3rd day in a row - a rare streak since falling from the 1.0581 April highs. While a daily close above 0.9130 should induce further short covering next week from the model community, a daily close above 0.9320 is still required to confirm a short term bottom is in place hence until then the longer term bear trend remains in tact.Briefly on cable - the 200dma continues to prove sticky, however given how shallow the pullbacks have been suggest the momentum is still to the upside. Above 1.5540 opens the way to 1.5600, then to 1.5640- the 50-week moving average and the highest level since early July. 1.5750 is still medium-term powerful resistance, the double top from mid-June. Support lies at 1.5480 in the near term, then 1.5380 – the top of the daily cloud.

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP/USD - bids at 1.5520 with light stops beneath; offers from sovereign name at 1.5580

EUR/USD remains quiet and within a 20 pips range; bids in solid size at 1.3350 with sell stops beneath; offers heavy from 1.34 up to 1.3420; buy stops in the mix

Corporate seller noted at 0.8020 in NZD/USD

AUD/USD - stops above 0.9160 taken out; offers now resting 0.9190 up to 0.92; larger buy stops above the big figure

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Merrill - What USD Bulls Need To Do Right Now

If you are among the USD bulls who got burned over the USD sharp decline this week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has a technical advise for you.

Stay the course, look to the bigger picture, and get ready to re-take long USD exposure against GBP, AUD, and CHF - but not from the current levels -, BofA advises.

"We remain USD bulls and continue to think that a USD base and turn higher is not far from materializing. This view remains intact against a DXY break of 80.86/ 80.49. We continue to favor selling GBP against the USD (as well as the AUD – BUT NOT HERE), but now want to add the Swiss Franc as a way to express USD strength," BofA clarifies.

[Abo Abdullah]

Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%):
•EURUSD: 1.3405-1.3420 on the upside, 1.3325-1.3340 on the downside.
•AUDUSD: 0.9180-0.9195 on the upside, 0.9040-0.9055 on the downside.
•USDJPY: 97.20-97.35 on the upside, 95.60-95.75 on the downside.
•GBPUSD: 1.5580-1.5595 on the upside, 1.5455-1.5470 on the downside.
•USDCAD: 1.0390-1.0405 on the upside, 1.0225-1.0240 on the downside.
•NZDUSD: 0.8055-0.8070 on the upside, 0.7940- 0.7955 on the downside.
•EURJPY: 130.05-130.20 on the upside, 128.10-128.25 on the downside.
•EURGBP: 0.8625-0.8640 on the upside, 0.8565-0.8570 on the downside.
•USDCHF: 0.9225-0.9240 on the upside, 0.9160-0.9175 on the downside.
•AUDJPY: 88.95-89.10 on the upside, 86.70-86.85 on the downside.
•EURAUD: 1.4775-1.4790 on the upside, 1.4510-1.4525 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

[se7ap]

أبوِ عبد الله أعتقـد ان في كلام كتير البنوِك الأمريكيه بتقوله .. لأن البنوِك الأمريكيه بتعتمـد إعتمآد كلي على أن الاخبار هي اللى بترفـع الدولآر . فـ التحفيز على شراء الدولار أو بيع العملات الأخري امامه مثلا من يومين كان البنـك المركزي الأمريكي يقول فرص سانحه عديده لـ شراء الدولآر وبيعه العملات أمامه وما رأيناه كان عكس ذلـك .. أرجوِ أن أعرف ما هي وجهة نظرك من هذه النقطـه .. ؟

[Abo Abdullah]

أبوِ عبد الله أعتقـد ان في كلام كتير البنوِك الأمريكيه بتقوله .. لأن البنوِك الأمريكيه بتعتمـد إعتمآد كلي على أن الاخبار هي اللى بترفـع الدولآر . فـ التحفيز على شراء الدولار أو بيع العملات الأخري امامه مثلا من يومين كان البنـك المركزي الأمريكي يقول فرص سانحه عديده لـ شراء الدولآر وبيعه العملات أمامه وما رأيناه كان عكس ذلـك .. أرجوِ أن أعرف ما هي وجهة نظرك من هذه النقطـه .. ؟

حياك الله يالغالي , اولا يجب ان لا نأخذ بكل ما تقوله البنوك يعني عندك بنك اوف امريكا كما موضح في

التقرير السابق هم مع قوة الدولار , اما عن نظرتي الشخصيه اعتقد ان الدولار سيكون في الفتره

القادمه ضعيف نسبيا للفتره المتوسطه اما المدى البعيد يعني ممكن بعد كم شهر سيكون قويا , وليس

كل ما ترى الدولار يهبط او اليورو يرتفع معناها ان السوق سيتغير فأكيد هناك ارتدادات وتصحيحات

وهذا امر طبيعي اما ان نرى اليورو بأرقام عاليه فأنا شخصيا لا اتوقع لان الوضع الاقتصادي في اوربا

لايسمح بذلك لان ارتفاعه يمكن ان يسبب ضغط على اوربا وعند ارتفاعه اكثر سوف تبدأ مسرحيات

المشاكل بالظهور مره اخرى وذا لم تنفع هذه المسرحيات فأعتقد انهم سيظطروا لاخفاض الفائده مره

اخرى , ولا ننسى ان الشهر القادم سيكون انتخابات في المانيا وهذا سيشكل ضعط على اليورو خصوصا

اذا لم يفوز حزب ميركل , ونصيحتي لك ان تتعامل مع السوق بشكل يومي لان السوق ليس كالسنوات

السابقه ومن الصعب التكهن به حتى لو بعد اسبوع , وفقك الله ورزقك يالغالي.

اذا كنت من متابعي هذه التقارير ارجوا ان تكون انتبهت الى هذه الجمله يوم امس

BIS was reported selling EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD – Offers at 1.3400, stops from 1.3420 through 1.3430, then corporate offers ahead of 1.3450. Bids at 1.3350 with stops below in good size, more bids at 1.3320

[Abo Abdullah]

US Market Report

EUR/USD
•Bids from US name in solid size resting at 1.3350
•Sell stops below through 1.3340
•Offers heavy from 1.34 up to 1.3420 - including sovereign name, real money and leveraged accounts
•Buy stops in the mix up to 1.3430

GBP/USD
•Bids in good size at 1.5480
•Sell stops sizeable beneath
•Offers building at 1.5550 and in better size at 1.5580 (including sovereign name)
•Buy stops above 1.56

USD/JPY
•Bids at 96.30, 96.00 and larger at 95.80
•Sell stops at 96.20 and good size sub-95.80
•Offers lined up at 96.80 up to 97.00
•Buy stops above 97.00 through 97.20

AUD/USD
•Bids at 0.9140/50
•Sell stops at 0.9135 from short-term accounts
•Offers lined up between 0.9190 and 0.92
•Buy stops above 0.92 through 0.9210

EUR/JPY
•Bids resting at 128.50 and in better size from 128.20 down to 128.00
•Sell stops large sub-128.00
•Offers 129.80 up to 130.00
•Buy stops above 130.00, also decent size

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Brief - London

[LONDON, Aug 9 11:15 GMT] A sharp three-day bull run for the EUR and into Friday the market is showing signs of fatigue. A marginal nudge above 1.3400 late Thursday and a test of the 200-week moving average line. The long term average is flat but falling and we have seen false breaks earlier in the year but traders are still watching the potential lid. Early European action brought talk of Asian sellers ahead of 1.3400 and sovereign supply between 1.3410 and 1.3420. Note the June 18 and 19 highs at 1.3416/17. On the bid side US accounts said to be thick between 1.3340 and 1.3350 with stops building below 1.3340. The EUR does look tired or it might just be pre-weekend blues but we still see scope to pick up cheaper EUR's or better covering levels early next week. For today, a drop under 1.3370 to set up a deeper pullback to 1.3330. Data wise poor French output numbers for June, -1.4% versus a +0.1% consensus and a slight narrowing of the Italian trade gap, also for June. peter.stoneham at thomsonreuters com Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters

[Abo Abdullah]

US leveraged funds selling EUR/JPY; stops below 128.00 eyed and a break below that level will encourage momentum funds to join the selling

GBP/USD – Buying dips still the preferred strategy. Bids into 1.5500 with stops under 1.5470 in good size. Offers into 1.5570 and at 1.5600 with stops above 1.5580

USD/JPY – Stops under 97.30 cleared