== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

SocGen - Seasonal FX: Sell In August Too

Seasonal effects are not a coincidence in FX markets, argues Societe Generale.

"Table 1 shows the average of G10 returns for each month of the year (monthly returns since 2008). For instance, the first number means that the EUR/USD average performance in January is -0.6% over the past six years. This heatmap clearly suggests that: considering the nine G10 pairs and the 12 months of the year, 19% of the average monthly returns exceeds 2% in absolute terms. The start of the year is generally the slowest period and sees very low correlations," SocGen clarifies.
So, what about the seasonal FX patterns for August?
"The best months for the dollar are May (the infamous “sell in May and go away” in action), August and November, while it underperforms the most in July. August is the month where GBP and AUD are the most vulnerable," SocGen finds out.

[Abo Abdullah]

Repetition
Valid Till : 20.00 GMT
EUR/USD –leveraged accounts and Real money noted Start offers building at 1.3340/50 in good size

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/USD - Offers in from .9040 through .9050, stops above the mid figure

EUR/USD – Offers from 1.3340 through 1.3350 with stops in good size through 1.3360

USD/JPY – Bids from 96.40 through 96.20, stops into 96.00

[Abo Abdullah]

Friday’s soft non-farm payrolls report quickly sent USD/JPY 100 pips lower and after a bounce, it has continued 170 pips lower.

Yesterday, I wrote Five reasons to expect more USD/JPY declines but after a big fall today some consolidation toward 97.50 is the likely next step. Eventually, a fall to the lower trendline is also in order.

[Abo Abdullah]

ANZ - AUD/USD: Minimal Bounces, Foiled Squeeze, Downtrend Persists

AUD/USD failure to close above 0.9300 in July foiled potential for a squeeze and left the downtrend in place, despite a break of declining resistance, notes Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ).
"The failure to close above 0.9300 and neutralising of momentum (rebounds in momentum, especially RSI breaching 50, reduced the divergence profile) now leave AUD at risk of continuing its slide towards the deep term retracement zone of 0.8550-0.8675," ANZ projects.
However in the very short term, ANZ thinks that a rebound above 0.9070 may reduce imminent downside risks and allow for some consolidation.
"Although 4-hourly momentum does now appear more constructive and risk of a larger correction of the extended decline persists, a breach of 90.70 is needed to avoid yet further declines. Slippage below 0.8925 will leave AUD firmly within the downtrend," ANZ clarifies.

[Abo Abdullah]

Asia Market Report

Market Briefings
•Macro funds bought into GBP/USD early in the session, real money joined in later
•US leveraged accounts sold USD/JPY hard to push price into stops
•Hot money sold EUR/GBP
•EUR/USD bought by corporate accounts near the highs
•Some hedge funds forced to close out AUD/USD short positions above .9010
•Sentiment favored risk off with equities keeping a downward bias and USD/JPY driven lower
•USD remained quite weak as many short-term plays worked against it: AUD/USD and NZD/USD were bought into some good-sized stops; EUR/USD was also bought to attempt to push price into a barrier; USD/JPY was aggressively sold to clear stops
•Short-term plays still dominating price movements

EUR/USD
•Offers from 1.3340 through 1.3350
•Buy stops in good size through 1.3360
•Bids from 1.3300 down to 1.3290, more ahead of 1.3260
•Sell stops below 1.3250 in decent size

AUD/USD
•Offers from .9040 through .9050
•Buy stops above the mid figure
•Bids at .8970 into .8950
•Sell stops under .8940; larger stops under .8920

NZD/USD
•Offers strong ahead of .8000
•Buy stops above the big figure large
•Bids into .7950, more at .7900
•Sell stops under .7940 and under .7880

USD/JPY
•Offers at 97.00 and 97.30
•Buy stops above 97.10
•Bids from 96.20 into 96.00
•Sell stops below 96.00

KEY NEWS
•Japanese Adjusted Current Account expected 0.73T (23:50 GMT)
•Japanese Current Account expected 0.39T (23:50 GMT)
•Australian Employment Change consensus 5.0K (00:30 GMT)
•Australian Unemployment Rate forecast 5.8% (00:30 GMT)
•Chinese Trade Balance expectations of 25.90B (00:30 GMT)

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of Japan policy meeting concludes today – announcement expected around 0.30GMT

[Abo Abdullah]

Expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) - Goldman, Citi, Barclays & Others

The following are the expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) August policy decision by economists at Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Barclays Capital, and other major banks.

Goldman: We expect no change at the August BoJ meeting.

Citi:. The Japanese central bank is expected to leave its policy unchanged this week. Though the industrial production data was weaker than expected in June, overall economic statistics have been steady and inflation has trended higher. Indeed, more recently Kuroda sounded very confident in the economic recovery and the achievement of the 2% inflation.

Barclays: The BOJ is announcing its rate decision on Thursday. Local data flow have been positive overall, suggesting Japan to continuing to outperform major advanced economies. On this backdrop we and the consensus expect the BoJ to hold the monetary policy unchanged, likely with limited directional implications to FX.

BofA Merrill: The BOJ policy board is likely stay on hold on 8 August.

Credit Agricole: We see no change to the BoJ’s stance that the monetary measures it has been conducting would be enough and therefore we expect the BoJ to leave the present monetary policy settings unchanged at the policy meeting on 7-8 August.

[mohamed emam]

أخى العزيز أبو عبدالله .. كل عام وأنت بخير وصحة ... عيد مبارك ان شاء الله.

[Abo Abdullah]

أخى العزيز أبو عبدالله .. كل عام وأنت بخير وصحة ... عيد مبارك ان شاء الله.

وانت بالف خير ان شاء الله يا اخي الغالي محمد وبارك الله فيك ووفقك الله ورزقك خير الدارين

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank -Tightened Stop On EUR/USD Short, Added New Short At 1.3330

Commerzbank made a very interesting adjustment and addition to its technical tactical short EUR/USD positions today. CB tightened the stop on the running trade from late July to 1.3350. The trade opened at 1.3275, with an initial stop at 1.3425.

And here is the punch line: CB added a new technical tactical short at 1.3330.

CB's rationale behind this call is that the market will fail at the key resistance zone of 1.3346. "This is where the 2011-2013 downtrend, the 200 week ma and the June high meet and we look for it to hold the topside and provoke failure. Loss of last weeks low at 1.3188 is needed to alleviate immediate upside pressure," CB clarifies

[Abo Abdullah]

Nikkei trading higher after the open, drages USD/JPY with it

[Abo Abdullah]

كل عام وأنتم بخير و عيد سعيد على الجميع

[Mr Euro]

كل عام وأنت بخير أخى العزيز أبو عبدالله

[Abo Abdullah]

كل عام وأنت بخير أخى العزيز أبو عبدالله

وانت بألف خير يالغالي وعيد سعيد على الجميع ان شاء الله