== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

USD becoming slightly more bid across the board as the data beats
EUR/USD – Sovereign bid at 1.3230, but stops in good size below

[Abo Abdullah]

Danske Bank - Sep Tapering Call Intact; Stay Long USD Vs A Basket Of EUR, GBP, CHF & JPY

The weaker-than-expected labour market report on Friday weighed immediately on USD and we saw a broad-based USD sell-off. However, given the strong rally in Treasuries the market reaction was in fact more modest than one should expect. US Treasury yields dropped more than 12 bps and tightened strongly against Germany and other G10 countries. As we still look for Fed tapering at the September FOMC meeting, our last FX Trade recommendation is to buy USD against a basket of EUR, GBP, CHF and JPY.

The less pronounced reaction in the FX market might reflect that currency world for a change was less speculative long USD. The IMM/CFTC data that were released Friday night showed that in the week ending Tuesday afternoon the market had squared out some of the many speculative long USD positions that have been in place for a while. Especially, short EUR/USD positions seem to have been closed ahead of the ECB meeting.

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & SP500

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Bullish "Flag"? Not sure what to make the reaction higher Friday and of the last week’s print. It could be a bullish "Flag", then targeting a high somewhere between 1.3345 & 1.3418. Outside 1.3188 or 1.3295 will likely tell which way the market is tilted as it comes back after the weekend.
USD/JPY: Testing mid-body point support. The Jul-Aug slide looks like a bullish "Flag" and the slide lower Fri should encounter support at Thu’s mid-body point at 98.70. But the “Flag” is unconfirmed until breaking 101.05, but would earn a lot of credibility already if bullishly breaking above 100.46\55.
GBP/USD: Bullish candle disturbs wave count. Suggested shorts were stopped out Fri as the bullish candle added came flying in from left field which disturbs the suggested (and still possible) bearish wave count. A too strong support remained at the 21day "Base line" which prevented yet another lower break and now the market is back testing the high end of the drawn "Ichimoku cloud". One of the two has to give to show a tilt and then for either 1.5028 below or 1.5435 above.
S&P 500: Stretching out for 1723. The current fifth (of a fifth) wave holds an ideal target at 1723 (but the minimum target, a high above the July peak, has already been fulfilled). Given that we again are trading outside the 233w Bollinger band the stretch is as big as it was late July before the latest setback so some caution urged adding on at current levels.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Nomura - USD/JPY 3-Wave Corrective Decline: levels & Targets

USD/JPY rally last week through 98.50 met expected bull flag resistance at 100 (99.95 high), notes Nomura.

"The pullback is holding firmly within the channel albeit with a deeper than expected retracement; it still appears that this move lower is wave-ii in an unfolding 5 wave rally. Uptrend support from mid-June at 97.85 must hold to keep the bullish outlook intact," Nomura clarifies.

So, where are the levels and target to watch for over the coming sessions?

"S/t, if prices can stay above 98.66 it would leave a 3-wave, corrective decline from 99.95-98.29. Once bettered expect a follow on rally through 99.15 to carry prices to channel resistance and eventually through PAR as wave-iii of the current rally continues. More significant upside levels are the old 100.83 and 101.53," Nomura projects.

[Abo Abdullah]

EU techs FADE rallies

Long trade's profit stop was hit before the London close today
Look to fade rallies to 1.3300 due to inability to post a close above it over 7 days
Recently overbought Slow Stochs heading lower with room to fall yet
Close below the 23.6% Fibo by 1.3200 is also a sell
Kijun and 50% Fibo at 1.3050 are the target

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY – Longs trapped on the data release and stops below 98.30 now looking quite vulnerable

No real impact in the markets from Fishers comments; volumes stay light as we start the week and have a busy Asia session ahead

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse- Holds EUR/USD & USD/JPY Shorts; Stopped Out Of Short GBP/USD

Credit Suisse maintains its technical tactical short EUR/USD position with a stop at 1.3435, and a target at 1.3025.

"Below 1.3227 can see a move back to 1.3190/87, with a break here reasserting bearish pressure for 1.3166, ahead of 1.3128/20 – 38.2% of the July rally. With the rising 200-day average just below at 1.3094, we would look for this to hold at first. Beneath can target 1.2994/80 next," CS projects.

CS also maintains short USD/JPY from 99.10, with a stop at 99.80, and a target at 97.

"We look for weakness to extend to the top of the small base from last week at 98.56/46, below which should see a fresh test of the late July lows at 97.66/58. Removal of here can target 96.96/75 – the late June low and 61.8% retracement of the June/July rally," CS adds.

Finally, CS stopped today out of its short GBP/USD position at 1.5329.

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY – Japanese account bids from 98.30 through 98.20 with stops growing below that area

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - EUR/USD Sidelined Below Resistance; Still A Perfect Sell

EUR/USD keeps sidelined below the 2013 resistance line currently at 1.3336, notes Commerzbank.

"Directly overhead lies key resistance at 1.3346/1.3417. This is where the 2011-2013 downtrend, the 200 week ma and the June high meet and we look for it to hold the topside and provoke failure," CB projects.

"Loss of last weeks low at 1.3188 is needed to alleviate immediate upside pressure. Failure here will target 1.30. Loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 recent low and April low," CB adds.

In line with this view, CB maintains its short EUR/USD from 1.3275 with a stop at 1.3425. CB plans to adds to this short at 1.3335.

CB also thinks that for those clients who haven't jumped into this short yet, the market is still offering a good selling opportunity around current levels targeting 1.30 with a stop still placed around 1.3425.

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - L/T Outlooks For DXY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD & AUD/USD

The following are the long-term technical outlooks for DXY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

DXY: The index remains on top of the 12 month moving average and even more so above the supportive long-term "Ichimoku cloud". The topside rejection & low close last month is of course disturbing a bullish stance, but it’s not enough to derail it. Medium-term damage to a bullish stance would be mended if taking back 83.46. Later extension higher should also sponsor violation of last month’s high at 84.75 and further out start threatening the 2009-2010 highs at 88.70 & 89.63.

EUR/USD: Last month’s lower “shadow” is a result of another buyers’ response not too far from a medium-term important "B-wave low" at 1.2661. Jul’s high close helps the 12mt moving average to retain a positive slope, but while holding below 1.3418, higher resistance pockets at 1.3650\1.3705\1.3960 are thought to stay untouched. The even broader timeframe outlook remains bearish for a later push towards 1.2042/1.1876 or even as low as 1.12/1.08.

USD/JPY: The ongoing contracting range is most likely wave-4 in a so far incomplete 5-wave impulse (which within an even bigger perspective could be the 1st leg (“A”) in a 3-wave correction higher). Over 101.54 would in a short-, medium-term perspective increase the chance of also testing/breaking the yearly high of 103.74 (preferably for a 105-110 top).

GBP/USD: The 12mt moving average keeps capping upside attempts but the yearly low also attracted responsive buying last month. The shortterm picture is tilted to the downside and below 1.5028 would expose the yearly lows at 1.4832/14. Bearishly below these would open up for 1.4205/28 later. Further out the 2009 low of 1.35 is at risk with the "Triangle" objective sitting as low as ~1.20.

AUD/USD: The suggested wave count is admittedly very ambitious but still a possibility. The 12mt moving average was further distanced through a 3 rd consecutive bearish monthly candle last month. Short- & medium-term conditions remain stretched and speculative positioning still extreme. So selling pressure is still on, but it seems that the move south has slowed some on approach the drawn lower parallel. A bounce still looks possible before turning lower, then ideally for a bounce which falls short of breaking back over 0.9390 and instead steering back south to home in on the 2010 "B-wave low" at 0.8070.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/CHF nearing one-month low as Draghi bounce fades

It has been a typical US summer afternoon for trading but one move sticks out as EUR/CHF bleeds lower.

The pair has dropped 45 pips since the start of US trading, down to 1.2310. Support is at 1.2305, which was last week’s low. An attempt higher following Draghi’s press conference on Thursday has been completely wiped out

EUR/CHF is a one-way trade, buying on dips with anything close to 1.22 looking like great value.

[Abo Abdullah]

AUD/USD - Macro accounts offers at .8930, still looking to sell rallies

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EU 1.3275 remains a MAGNET

1.3300 tested after stronger European PMI's - weaker German undermined
Strong U.S. ISM then also weighed & 1.3233 tested - now sup/res
1.3275 a magnet for over a week - signals conflict
Expect tight ranges in Asia dominated by EUR/JPY & EUR/AUD
Narrow range day seen as dull market takes hold
1.32 - 1.33 is likely range until a catalyst sees a breakout
Daily close below 1.32 would target 200 day MA at 1.31
Daily close above 1.33 would target 200 week MA at 1.34