== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Gaith Bajbouj]

حياك الله اخي غيث , الاخبار المهمه التي تحرك العمله كثيره ومنها تقارير الفائده ومعدلات البطاله

وحديث رؤساء البنوك المركزيه طبعا هذا من غير الاخبار السياسيه التي تعتبر هي الاهم دائما ,

ونصيحتي ان تبتعد عن المتاجره لحظه صدور الاخبار لاننا لانعرف كيف سيقررون المستثمرين

اتجاههم ونرى كثيرا ان اتجاه العمله يكون عكس الاخبار والامثله كثيره , فالافضل دائما انتظار

استقرار السوق وبعدها تحدد الاتجاه مع المقارنه مع التحليلات , اما انك تفتح اوامر معلقه بأتجاهين

فهذا يعتبر الصراحه من المغامرات التي تؤدي الى الخساره في نهايه الامر و تضيع الوقت , وهنا

انا اغلب الاوقات احاول ان انقل اوامر المستثمرين او البنوك وغيرها وعندما ترى كلمة

Real money سواء بيع او شراء او عروض او طلبات من مستويات معينه فغالبا ما سنرى

شمعات طويله ( نصف متر او عواميد نور ) فهؤلاء من الممكن ان يتحكموا بالسوق بشكل مباشر

وحتى يستطيعون ان يضغطوا على البنوك ايضا ,حتى لو مشى السعر قليلا عن مستوياتهم فيفعلوا

ذلك لضرب الستوبات ومن ثم يأخذون مراكز جديده وتكون في اتجاههم , وفقك الله ورزقك يالغالي .

انا قصدي مثلا عندك اليورو استرالي لما كان في خبر قوي لا اذكر ما هو بالضبط لكن قريت توقيت نزولو

وضعت امرين ستوب والمسافة بينهما 60 نقطة اي 30 نقطة لكل منهما من سعر افتتاح شمعة الخبر

ووضعت الهدف 150 نقطة ودخلتها بلوت كامل وجابت الهدف والحمدلله 1500 $

طبعا انا اضع ع الشارت اكسبيرت بريك ايفن بمجرد ما السعر مشا بصالح الصفقة عدد محدد من النقاط ينقل الستوب لنقطة الدخول فورا تجنبا لاي انعكاس قوي ، وبالاساس الرصيد الذي ابدأ به يكون زائد تماما عن حاجتي ولا يهمني خسارته لذلك ادخل بلوتات عالية واسحب فورا

وجزاك الله خير اخي ابو عبدالله وخلص لانو من الان راح يكون كل تركيزي ع معدلات البطالة والفائدة

تحياتي لك

[Abo Abdullah]

انا قصدي مثلا عندك اليورو استرالي لما كان في خبر قوي لا اذكر ما هو بالضبط لكن قريت توقيت نزولو

وضعت امرين ستوب والمسافة بينهما 60 نقطة اي 30 نقطة لكل منهما من سعر افتتاح شمعة الخبر

ووضعت الهدف 150 نقطة ودخلتها بلوت كامل وجابت الهدف والحمدلله 1500 $

طبعا انا اضع ع الشارت اكسبيرت بريك ايفن بمجرد ما السعر مشا بصالح الصفقة عدد محدد من النقاط ينقل الستوب لنقطة الدخول فورا تجنبا لاي انعكاس قوي ، وبالاساس الرصيد الذي ابدأ به يكون زائد تماما عن حاجتي ولا يهمني خسارته لذلك ادخل بلوتات عالية واسحب فورا

وجزاك الله خير اخي ابو عبدالله وخلص لانو من الان راح يكون كل تركيزي ع معدلات البطالة والفائدة

تحياتي لك

موفق يالغالي وان شاء الله من ارباح الى ارباح اكثر ونورت الموضوع يا حبيبي , وفقك الله ورزقك.

[Abo Abdullah]

Next Week's Trading Ranges & Bias For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, & Other FX Spots – Commerz bank.

The trend reversal in US monetary policy which had been signalled following the FOMC meeting of 19 June is more or less priced into USD exchange rates now, says Commerzbank.

"That means the dollar uptrend is unlikely to continue in as smooth a manner as has so far been the case. However, there are still many indications that point towards lower EUR-USD levels medium term. Investor patience is likely to pay off," Commerz Bank projects.

In the table below, Commerz Bank outlines its expectations for next week's trading ranges and bias for EUR/USD, and a selection of other currency pairs.

[Abo Abdullah]

EU techs close below TRENDLINE

Weekly close seen below trendline connecting lows since April 4
May 17 low at 1.2795 held above so far - stops will be below
Oversold at support leaves price vulnerable to a squeeze
Further stops below Apr 4 low at 1.2745 in traders' sights
Chart: http://link.reuters.com/met49t

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY - Sellers at 101.50 , some related to barrier option interest. There are stops above 101.50, but mixed with further selling, so don’t expect to hard a spike above there. Selling 101.80/00
Buying 101.00/20

[Abo Abdullah]

Barclays' Trades Of The Wk: Buy USD Vs EUR, GBP, JPY & Buy AUD/NZD

Investors following short term macro strategies should consider buying USD vs EUR, GBP, and JPY, and buying AUD/NZD this week, advises Barclays Capital in its weekly FX picks to clients

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

European Market Report

EUR/USD
•Sentiment negative as ECB dovish
•Traders focus on diverging interest rate expectations
•FED likely to scale down QE, while ECB looks to continue it's current policy
•Bids at 1.28, larger at 1.2750
•Sell stops building beneath the big figure, but larger around 1.2730/40
•Offers at 1.2840/50 and larger at 1.29, including ACB supply
•Buy stops at 1.2860, larger above 1.29 through 1.2920

GBP/USD
•Dovish Bank of England surprised markets last week
•Sentiment turned negative and selling rallies preferred strategy
•The pair is approaching a key technical level at 1.4820
•A clear break below would likely trigger further selling - including model funds
•Bids at 1.4830 and 1.48
•Sell stops noted sub-1.4820 in good size
•Offers building at 1.4920, 1.4950 and in better size ahead of the 1.50 level
•Buy stops above 1.4950 and 1.50 through 1.5020

USD/JPY
•US funds, Japanese importers & retail traders noted buyers
•Japanese exporters seen selling the rallies
•Sentiment remains positive and further gains seem likely
•Bids at 100.80, 100.50 and larger around the 100.00 level
•Light sell stops building sub-100.80, larger around 99.80/90
•Offers at 101.50, 101.80 and larger ahead of the 102.00 barrier option
•Buy stops accumulating above 102.00

AUD/USD
•Overall sentiment remains negative
•However, short squeeze possible as short AUD/USD trades becomes crowded
•Focus switches from RBA to dovish ECB and BoE which surprised markets
•Funds likely to continue unwinding of long EUR/AUD positions
•Shorting EUR/AUD more favorable to buying the $A vs the USD
•Bids ahead of the 0.90 barrier option
•Sell stops noted beneath the level
•Offers lined up at 0.9080, 0.9120 and large at 0.9180
•Buy stops accumulating above 0.91 and around 0.9060

EUR/JPY
•Bids at 129.00 and in good size at 128.50
•Sell stops large sub-128.50
•Offers at 130.00 up to 130.20 - plenty of supply ahead of the 131.00 level
•Buy stops accumulating above 130.50

KEY NEWS AHEAD:
•07:15 GMT (03:15 EST) - Swiss Industrial Production
•08.30 GMT (04:30 EST) - Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence
•10:00 GMT (06:00 EST) - German Industrial Production

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/GBP - real money accounts noted buyers on the dips

EUR/USD - talk of a barrier option at 1.28 being protected

EUR/USD - offers from specs in decent size at 1.2850, more at 1.2890 and 1.29 with buy stops above the big figure

USD/JPY - bids at 100.80, 100.50 and in good size at 100.00 (Japanese importers, leveraged funds) - large sell stops at 99.80

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS Daily FX Report

FX Technicals


EURUSD BEARISH

With the bear trend intact focus is on the key support at 1.2797. A break below this would suggest scope for further downside. Resistance is at 1.2917.

USDJPY BULLISH

The pair extended its strength this morning and the potential is for the test of key resistance at 103.74. Support is at 99.26.

GBPUSD BEARISH

Sharp fall seen on Friday is trading just above the key support 1.4832. A closing break below this would be negative. Resistance is at 1.5080.

USDCHF BULLISH

Friday the pair closed above the resistance at 0.9568. This was positive opening 0.9839. Support is at 0.9560.

AUDUSD BEARISH

With the bear trend intact focus is on the support at 0.8771 ahead of 0.8545. Resistance stand at 0.9190.

USDCAD BULLISH

Our resistance focus is at 1.0658 ahead of 1.0804. Support is at 1.0472.

EURCHF BEARISH

With the bear trend intact, we expect the resistance at 1.2384 to hold on closing basis. Support is at 1.2334 ahead of 1.2280.

EURGBP BULLISH

The cross closed above the resistance at 0.8607. This was a strong bullish development opening 0.8656. Support is at 0.8563 ahead of 0.8469.

EURJPY BULLISH

Downside should be limited, and we expect the support at 128.04 to hold. Resistance is at 131.12 ahead of the key 133.80.
Source: UBS FX Strategy

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP/USD - real money account noted seller earlier

EUR/GBP - offers in good size at 0.8650, buy stops above

USD/JPY - barrier option at 102.00; buy stops above

USD/JPY - some stops noted at 101.60; more above 102.00

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY - offers from Japanese accounts at 101.50

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/JPY - short-term speculators buying; some weak stops above 130.20, but good supply seen from 130.50 up to 131.00

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD - Offers from sovereign names seen from 1.2860 to 1.2880

USD/JPY - Stops below 100.80 growing larger