== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

EU could go as low as 1.1825

The EUR/USD could fall to as low as 1.1825 in the coming months, FX Concepts head of research Jonathan Clark says. "Our outlook has turned more negative on the European currencies," he says. "If the Eurozone isn't in crisis, then the euro weakness will most likely be related to the Fed policy and the U.S. data," he says, adding "strong employment data mean weak European currencies." The pair is at 1.2993(takashi.mochizuki-dowjones com

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Brief - Asia

[03:17 GMT July 4] The EUR/USD opened the Asian session at 1.3010 after reversing higher during the shortened US session on heavy short-covering aend broad USD weakness. The EUR/USD traded up to 1.3023 in early Asia before drifting off for the rest of the morning with small volumes changing hands. The EUR/USD traded down to 1.2990 and was trading around that level heading into the afternoon session. There was talk of EUR/AUD selling/profit taking and EUR/JPY selling out of Tokyo. The EUR/USD will likely chop around between 1.2950/1.3030 ahead of the ECB meeting later today. The market isn't expecting the ECB to change policy, but most expect ECB President Draghi to strike a very dovish tone and assure the market policy will remain easy for an extended period. Draghi may also try and talk down the EUR, as the relative strength of the currency given the heating up of sovereign debt concerns is not helping the struggling EZ economies. The market will also key off move in Portuguese bond yields. (JN) Copyright (c) 2013 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

[Abo Abdullah]

AUDUSD running into good sell interest

Hearing talk of fund selling on this latest rally but we’re still breaking up through 0.9133 Asian highs

A break of 0.9135 should see an attack on 0.9150

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/GBP - offers at 0.8550, 0.8580; bids at 0.8480 with stops below 0.8470 in good size

[Abo Abdullah]

ECBM

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Morgan Stanley says

EU to come under pressure which will likely be the stance says Morgan Stanley, given developments within the periphery where yields and spreads are moving higher. The bank also thinks S&P's downgrade of European banks will weigh on the single currency. EUR/USD now at 1.2996, MS is short from 1.3050 with a stop loss now at cost, looking for 1.28 to take profit

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

Recommendations: SHORT positions below 1.3038 with 1.2960 & 1.2920 as next targets.
Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 1.3038 will call for a rebound to 1.3077/1.3135
Description: The pair trades below its resistance at 1.3038, as long as this level holds,look for further downside losses towards 1.2960/1.2920 levels, a break below 1.2920 will target 1.2860 ahead of 1.2790 , a 30 min close above 1.3038 would delay the bearish move and pave the way towards 1.3077/1.3135 levels.

[Abo Abdullah]

EURUSD: Vulnerable Despite Recovery Attempts

Yesterday was the second try to bottom at 1.2922, after failing at 1.3058 last week, now pressure will be on the key resistance 1.3078, break of 1.3078 will open the way towards 1.3150, to neutralize the bearish threat , it needs a daily close above 1.3150, If seen,Intraday bias will turn bullish in short term and in medium term , it will turn from bearish to neutral,break of 1.3150 will open the way for retesting 1.3250/300 levels.

On the downside , a failure to hold above 1.3078/1.3150 levels on a daily closing basis, could mean a return to the 1.2922 levels, break of 1.2922 sooner or later would target 1.2790 levels where halt is suggested and another try of bottoming may start there.

In all, as long as 1.3078/1.3150 levels hold on a daily closing basis, the pair will remain biased to the downside with risk towards 1.2790 levels

UBS Bank - Desk

[Abo Abdullah]

Talk of a few hedge funds looking to sell EUR/JPY today

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP weak across the board as BoE said a recent rise in bond yields was not warranted by the state of the British economy

[Abo Abdullah]

Morgan Stanley: Maintaining short EUR/USD position with 1.28 target, but stop lowered to 1.3080

[Abo Abdullah]

US Market Report

Market Overview:
•Bank of England leaves rates and QE program unchanged
•Surprises markets by stating a recent rise in bond yields was not warranted by the state of the British economy
•GBP weak across the board; triggering stops sub-1.51
•1.50 now seen as major tech support level; a break below could pave the way for 1.4880 test
•Large stops above 0.86 cleared in EUR/GBP
•Leveraged money seen covering short AUD/USD positions
•Real money accounts buyer of EUR/USD; sovereign + specs sold rallies
•USD/JPY caught in tight range as two-way flows and low risk appetite dominate
•Looking ahead, we have the ECB rate decision at 11:45 GMT and the press conference at 12:30 GMT

Due to a holiday in the US, we will be back tomorrow for the London opening.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD - EUR/USD - bids at 1.2975, 1.2950 and larger 1.2920/30
Stops under 1.2940 noted growing larger - Probability to hit

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD –leveraged accounts and Real money noted selling
at 1.3000 in good size.
From London