== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

USD/JPY slowed as we hit into the sovereign offers, more supply at 98.00 with buy stops resting just above

Same sovereign names that sold EUR/USD into 1.3400 are booking profits down near 1.3300, keeping the pair supported for now

[Abo Abdullah]

Nomura - EUR/USD Bullish Consolidation Intact: Levels & Targets

EUR/USD has now spent a week above the recently broken long-term downtrends, notes Nomura.

The consolidation above the breakout levels is following a bullish uptrend from 1.28. As long as Euro can hold above 1.3298 then we still consider this multi-week range part of a bullish pennant that will carry prices through 1.3417/52," Nomura projects.

"S/T, In order to further push the bull case prices need to better resistance at 1.3398. This sets up and expected range for the day around 1.3323/98. A triangle breakout will set the stage for the second another a-b-c rally similar to the move from 1.28-1.34," Nomura adds.

[Abo Abdullah]

Selling rallies in AUD/USD still the preferred strategy

Momentum funds selling into EUR/USD weakness while sovereign interest rests on either side with bids into 1.3300 and offers spread out from 1.3390 through 1.3420

[Abo Abdullah]

Gold has risen for five consecutive days but there are signs the momentum is waning. Geopolitical uncertainty and the possibility the Fed may not taper in September have lent the bid to gold and several technical levels were topped in the process.

The pattern initially continued today as the June high of $1424 easily gave, tripping buy stops up to $1433. From there, a wave of profit taking hit and knocked gold back to $1421.

The key in the near-term is the close. If gold can finish the day above $1424 the momentum may continue for another day or two but if not, a few days of consolidation around $1400 are more likely.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR Briefing - New York

NEW YORK, Aug 28 IFR- EUR/USD opened New York 1,3350, 43 pips below last night's close, O/N range 1.3344/98, today's New York range 1.3305/51. ACB bids 1.3305/15 held up the bid side after stops tripped at 1.3320 and 1.3310. ACB's are on top at 1.3390 if we get a bounce, leveraged accounts probed for the sub 1.3300 stops but didn't have the wherewithal to press them. German GfK was slightly below previous month and US pending home sales also disappointed [page:2417} The big focus remains Syria and what response will be agreed by the Western allies; the UK formally requested permission for a military response from the UN Security Council, the decision remains pending. EUR/USD closed 1.3340, above key 21-DMA. Italy shuffled around tax revenue sources today to appease a coalition member threatening to back out. The unpopular housing tax (IMU) and will replace with a "service tax" on municipal services in 2014. Thur German unemployment & CPI, US Q2 PCE & GDP revisions, wkly claims Fed Bullard & Lacker to speak Peter.Wadkins at ThomsonReuters com

[Abo Abdullah]

Nomura - USD/JPY Final Wave-E Decline & AUD/USD Bear Pennant: Levels & Targets

USD/JPY bear flag will likely lead to the final wave-E decline targeting 96.40, projects Nomura.

"The idealized end to this 3+ month triangle would be a decline to the uptrend line at 96.40. If prices break the wave-C low at 95.81 the higher lows and bullish triangle are no longer valid. Eventually confirmation will come from a close through the upper boundary line and more conservatively the wave-D high at 99.15. Our long-term outlook remains fixed on an a move to near 106," Nomura adds.

For AUD/USD, Nomura projects that its current baer pennant suggests one more rally to .9110/.9170.

"The sideways action from the July low is following the script of a bear pennant with lower highs/higher lows. In order to keep this pattern intact prices need hold above the wave-b low at .8848. Wave-d of the triangle is coming to a close which suggests a multi-day rally towards trendline resistance to complete this wave-(4) correction. S/t, the major target zone to watch is .9110 to .9170; this is where the triangle target, April downtrend & triangle downtrend all converge," Nomura clarifies.

[Abo Abdullah]

EU Consolidation is the theme

Opens -0.4%, as markets repriced a Syrian intervention
Despite familiar levels CitiFX Wire report high volumes
Momentum studies & ma's are cresting - uptrend stalled
1.3300/1.3450 range dominates - tight consolidation likely in Asia
NY 1.3305/1.3374 range initial sup/res

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS FX Strategy

FX Technicals

EURUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.3452, a break above which would open 1.3520 ahead of 1.3711. Support is at 1.3298 ahead of 1.3206.

USDJPY BULLISH As long as support holds at 95.81, the potential is for resumption of upside as trending indicators are bullish. Resistance is at 99.34 ahead of 101.53.

GBPUSD NEUTRAL
The pair is consolidating and with momentum pointing lower, the risk appears to be more weakness to test the strong support at 1.5373 Resistance is at 1.5573 ahead of 1.5718.

USDCHF BEARISH
As bearish conditions persist, there is scope for further weakness to test important support at 0.9130. A move below which would expose 0.9022 Resistance is at 0.9247 ahead of 0.9301.

AUDUSD BEARISH There is scope for more weakness and support focus is at 0.8848, a break below which would expose 0.8545. Resistance is at 0.9070 ahead of 0.9233
.
USDCAD BULLISH
There is an important resistance range at 1.0609/58. With the trending indicators pointing higher, there is scope for more upside to test 1.0804. Support is at 1.0456 ahead of 1.0422.

EURCHF NEUTRAL Support is at 1.2268, a break below which would expose 1.2219. Resistance is at 1.2363 ahead of 1.2434.

EURGBP BEARISH
Fresh selling pressure materialised from the resistance at 0.8669. With the MACD below its zero line, the risk appears to be for resumption of downside Support is at 0.85205 ahead of 0.8467.

EURJPY BULLISH Important resistance range is at 132.74 and 133.80. A close above which would extend the strength. Support is at 129.29 ahead of 127.98.
.
*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation
of price action
Source: UBS FX Strategy

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

USDCHF-seeing offers at .9290

USDJPY-JPY exporter offers capping rally for now, suggested interest in selling at 98.30/50

EURUSD-Sovereign bids poised for taking profit @ 1.3250 and note larger expiry for NY cut at 1.3250

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, Oil & SP500

EUR/USD: The, so far, visible bear divergence between price and the 13d slow stochastic however suggests that more downside attempts to be seen in the near future but unless getting a solid foothold beneath 1.3299 no sell signal to be triggered. For today offers expected in the 1.3340’s.

USD/JPY: With yesterday’s move higher (e-waves are normally weaker than the other waves hence not surprising not reaching the lower boundary) there’s a growing possibility of a now completed bull triangle. Even though a confirmation won’t be given until passing the high point of wave d, 99.15, one should monitor the near term development closely. Once the triangle is exited a new target should be set in the 109- area (the triangle’s theoretical target whereas the minimum target = 103.75).

Gold: The market went all the way to the upper end of a rolling 21day +/-6% price-channel, met a Jun-Jul "Equality point" and the high end of a (both steep and tight) Aug-trendchannel. This shows demand, but yesterday sellers responded and added a near-term bearish “Doji”. This point towards 1.393 before up. But if not stopping at the preferred correctional target and instead bearishly violates it, look for 1,353 before up.

Oil: As pointed out yesterday. Tech plays 2nd fiddle at best when geopolitical headlines distort a market’s natural rhythm. When eyeballing the medium-term perspective however, peaks and troughs seem rather cyclical. With this in mind a peak doesn’t seem overly distant and in price the Q3-12 & Q1’13 tops (the latter at 119.17) lie within reach without stretching it. In the short-term perspective a move back under 111.00 is needed to soothe the market.

SP500: The fall (possibly “wave-3-in-5”) has printed a temporary low at the base of the Fibo-adjusted short-term "Ichimoku cloud". But a lift from here may encounter resistance already at 1,642\1,646 and not necessarily put heavier resistance at 1,665\1,668. Bearishly below 1,625 would target 1,611/1,594.

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Merrill Holds USD/JPY longs & Cable Shorts

Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintains 3 tactical long USD/JPY positions from 98.00, 97.50, and 97.00 with a stop at 95.80, and a target at 105.80/106.

"Yesterday’s USD/JPY decline filled our scale in bids at 98.00, 97.50, and 97.00 (average of 97.50). While we could see one more push lower, absent a move below 95.80 (Agu-08 low), WE REMAIN LONG AND BULLISH. The Long-Term Bull Trend is resuming for 106.00/105.80, potentially 109.80," BofA outlines its bias on the pair.

Meanwhile, BofA maintains a short GBP/USD position from 1.5645 with a revised stop at cost and a target at 1.4785.

"GBP/USD has seen a sharp snap-back from 1.5438/1.5429 support, but gains remain corrective and temporary. Higher prices should be limited to 1.5586, as a potential intra-day Head and Shoulders Top develops. A daily close below 1.5438/29 confirms the pattern and resumption of the larger bear trend. Target 1.5102 initially (roughly the Head and Shoulders Top projection), before 1.4783/ 1.4767 and below," BofA adds.

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - USD/JPY nears support at 96.60

Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank notes that USD/JPY has sold off towards and held the initial test of the 96.60/59 2 month support line.

“While it is possible that we will see the market rebound towards the 99.37 3 month downtrend, we look for this to contain the topside.”

“We are negative short term below here. Currently the 96.73/59 support zone is being tested. It contains the three month support line and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June-to- July rise.”

“Below these lies the five month support line at 95.00. Over the coming weeks we allow for losses back to the 94.45/93.75 support area. This is where the 200 day moving average, Fibonacci retracement and the June low are to be found.”

[Abo Abdullah]

CHF taking a good hit as USD/CHF sees demand on USD strength while EUR/CHF is bought by Swiss banks

Some decent ACB profit taking noted in GBP/USD

USD/CHF - Stops noted above .9340 in good size