== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS - S/T Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

EUR/USD: (Bearish) With the MACD crossing below its zero line and as the pair closed below support at 1.3186, there is scope for more downside. Next support is at 1.3103 ahead of 1.3021. Resistance is at 1.3255.

USD/JPY: (Bullish) The latest strength reinforces the broader bullish theme. There is potential for more upside to break through resistance at 101.53 and test 103.74. Support is at 97.89 ahead of 96.82.

GBP/USD: (Neutral) As long as resistance at 1.5608 holds, the risk is for resumption of weakness to test the strong support at 1.5373.

AUD/USD: (Bearish) With the bearish trending indicators in place, any further recovery will find resistance at 0.9233. The risk is for resumption of downside, with support at 0.8973 ahead of 0.8848.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined above is determined by UBS proprietary model and is independent of its discretionary interpretation of price action.

[Abo Abdullah]

Westpac - USD/JPY & Syria's War: 2 Must See Charts

While very mindful of the differences between one Middle East conflict and another, it still seems worth reminding ourselves of price action in two major conflicts of recent decades, says Westpac.

Thus, by plotting several assets and currencies on either side of the 1990-1991 Gulf War and the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Westpac notes some notable patterns include the speed of the unwinding in the run-up in crude oil prices and the gains in JPY despite Japan’s reliance on imported oil.

[Abo Abdullah]

SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, AUD/JPY, Gold, & SP500

EUR/USD : Spiked below support. There’s now a possible completed wave 3 in place given that we’ve having reached (and for a short while violated) the minimum target, 1.3162 (however not managing to meet the ideal hourly triangle target at 1.3119). As the new low was accompanied by rising hourly momentum indicators a bull divergence has been created which indicates that the pendulum is swinging in favor of an upside reaction, probably 1.3237-55.

AUD/JPY: Heading for 0.9320. The yen is on a weakening path after the breakout of the USDJPY bull triangle and AUDUSD remains on a positive corrective track after having cleared the 0.9070/85 resistance so AUDJPY seems predestined to move higher short term with the previous wave 4, 0.9320, being the main attraction point.

Spot Gold: Gunning for a +1,441 move. A bullish candle was added yesterday, following the downside “shadow” the day before. This shows respect to dynamic support from the ascending 55day exponentially weighted moving average band (1,368/1,343). A push through the recent 1,433 high is respected. Also over a short-term "Equality point" at 1,441 would challenge the 233day exponentially weighted moving average band (1,462\1,486) and an early May high of 1,488.

S&P500: Rejected at near-term equilibrium. The black benchmark candle from last Tue holds resistance at its mid-body point together with the 8day "Conversion line" and yesterday's topside shadow show this quite clearly. A bearish looking session close under 1,629/1,625 would suggest extension lower to test 1,611/1,594.

[Abo Abdullah]

Interbank FX Wire

Hedge funds continue to unwind EUR/AUD long positions; heavy sales in the cross
EUR/USD flows were light during the London session; no larger offers on the books until 1.3220, while bids rest at 1.3240

An ACB was noted seller of Cable ahead of PMI, but specs took the pair higher after the release, clearing stops from 1.5605 up to 1.5615

Asian sovereign name again noted seller later, capping the rally at 1.5630

Specs bought USD/JPY on the dip to 99.50 and larger bids are resting at 99.20 with stops beneath

Real money and macro accounts sold EUR/GBP

Dealers saw GBP/AUD selling post-PMI

Hedge funds were good buyers of AUD in the crosses; demand from macro and momentum players noted as well

In USD/CAD, real money bids 1.0500/10 were cleared and specs pushed the pair into sub-1.0490 stops

Technical Levels:
EUR/USD has minor demand at 1.3140 with better support seen at 1.31 and stops below. To the topside, decent supply at 1.3220 and heavy ahead of 1.3250 with stops sizeable above both levels.

GBP/USD has smaller demand at 1.5580 and 1.5550 with stops beneath these levels. Larger support at 1.5450/60 with a break below seeing 1.54 next. Supply heavy at 1.5650 and 1.57 with stops above.

USD/JPY has solid demand at 99.20 and 98.80 with stops below both levels. A move back below 98.80 would lead to position covering and pave the way for a test of 98.20. To the upside, supply decent ahead of the 100.00 level and next major resistance then seen at 101.50

AUD/USD has support at 0.9140 and stronger at 0.9100/20. Stops beneath the big figure and large sub-0.9050. Heavy resistance ahead of 0.92.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Mid-East accounts selling gold

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse Weekly Macro Charts

[Abo Abdullah]

EU 200 DMA in focus as consolidation takes hold

Action limited as EUR/USD hemmed in by activity in the crosses
EUR sold hard agnst cmdty ccys & bought vs JPY & CHF
Expiries at 1.3150 & 1.3200 for remainder of week aid consolidation
Asian names playing s-t range dominate, sell c 1.3200/10 & bid c 1.3110
Yield spreads give USD the edge & a dovish Draghi may resume recent slide
Sub-1.3100/10 sit stops, if run 1.3050 next, Chart: http://link.reuters.com/zuc82v

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

Barclays - Outlooks & Strategies For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, & AUD/USD

EUR/USD: The market tested the 1.3145/65 target zone and is lacking signs of a base. A close below 1.3145 would likely warn of an extension lower towards 1.2990/1.3020 (retracement). We remain bearish in the absence of a close above 1.3240.

USD/JPY: Near term support at 99.15 is underpinning pullbacks as USD/JPY aims for a 100. A break above 100.00 would likely trigger follow through though we expect 100.90 to provide strong resistance and for a pullback to occur thereafter. Beneath 99.15, next support is at 98.50.

GBP/USD: The marginal move above 1.56 turns us neutral as price trades in the middle of a 1.5420 to 1.5750 range. Closer to the range highs, we would be looking to sell again for a return to 1.5420 and medium term, towards 1.51.

AUD/USD: The market tested the 0.9060 target and the overthrow higher suggests maintaining a bullish view. We would look for selling interest closer to 0.9240. Short term support is at 0.9000.

[Abo Abdullah]

JP Morgan's Current Open Technical FX Trades

The following is a list of JP Morgan's current open technical FX trades as of September 04, 2013.

Long 2 units USD/JPY from 97.76 avg., target 101.50, stop at 97.85.
Short 1 unit EUR/RUB from 43.822, add at 44.65, targets 40.00 & 37.20, stop at 45.60.
Long 2 units USD/CAD from 1.0411 avg., target 1.0850, stop at 1.0430.
Long 2 units USD/NOK from 5.6000 avg., target 7.500, stop at 5.8700.
Long 1 unit CAD/JPY from 82.22, target 103.50, stop at 91.15.

[Abo Abdullah]

Gold pullback a shining opportunity

Syria is getting some of the blame for the fall in gold prices today. The thinking is that Russian opposition diminishes the chance of a strike but I don’t think that’s anything new. The US won’t ask for Russian permission to drop bombs. If anything, the level of Russian opposition increases the chance of an extended conflict.

In any case, gold is down $24 today after a similar rally yesterday. I’ve picked up a gold long here and I’m prepared to add in the $1360 zone. I have a stop at $1325.

The technical picture for gold remains compelling for a target near $1500. September is a great month for gold seasonals and the considerable uncertainty in the global economy and Middle East will lend a bid. In the immediate term, gold is finding support near $1385.

[Abo Abdullah]

Citi - Positioning Ahead Of Sep FOMC: A New FX Trade

Citibank is positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting on Sep 17-18 via adding a long USD/CHF trade to its portfolio via options.

"We buy a 2-week (September 18) 0.9450/0.9659/1.0050 USDCHF call fly in 1x1.5x0.5 notional for a cost of 0.3050%USD and spot reference (0.9365)," Citi clarifies.

"We allocate a 2%VaR risk weight to the position," Citi adds.

[alameen911]

مساء الفل

عاجل :: لجنة العلاقات الخارجية بمجلس الشيوخ الأمريكي تصوت لصالح الضربة في سوريا..

[Abo Abdullah]

Bank of America Merrill - New Global FX & Commodity Forecasts