== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR rally stalls quickly as sovereign accounts sell and we see US funds selling EUR crosses still

[Abo Abdullah]

That Swiss name sold $300mln on that first pop above chf0.9200....am told there were others.....smell Asian sovereign supply up there as well

[Abo Abdullah]

++ Swiss names still selling AUD we are told

[Abo Abdullah]

Large stops in USD/JPY from 98.50 through 98.20 coming into focus again

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

US oil production hits 24-year high

Fracking is a cracking word if you’re a US dollar bull. Weekly data today showed US oil production at 7.621 million barrels per day according to the Energy Information Administration. It’s the highest since 1989 and continues a rapid acceleration since 2012.
This chart outlines how in the space of a few years, new production has wiped out 20+ years of losses.

Every dollar of domestic oil reduces the US trade deficit and is a direct boost for the dollar

[Abo Abdullah]

UBS Outlooks

FX Technicals

EURUSD BEARISH
Strong support is at 1.3103, a break below this would extend the weakness to 1.3021. Resistance is at 1.3223.

USDJPY BULLISH
The latest strength reinforces the broader bullish theme. There is potential for more upside to break through resistance at 101.53 and test 103.74. Support is at 97.89 ahead of 96.82.

GBPUSD BULLISH
The recent upside opens the doors to test the strong resistance range at 1.5718/50. Support is at 1.5522 ahead of 1.5423.

USDCHF NEUTRAL
Initial resistance is at 0.9456, a break above would open major resistance at 0.9520. Support is at 0.9338 ahead of 0.9265.

AUDUSD BEARISH
With the bearish trending indicators in place, any further recovery will find resistance at 0.9233. The risk is for resumption of downside, with support at 0.9038 ahead of 0.8848.

USDCAD NEUTRAL
The recent setback has strong support at 1.0369. A close below this would trigger a deeper sell-off to 1.0294 and then 1.0246. Resistance is at 1.0516 ahead of 1.0568.

EURCHF NEUTRAL
Resistance is at 1.2434 ahead of 1.2475. Support is at 1.2314 ahead of 1.2268.

EURGBP BEARISH
Having tested the strong support at 0.8397, the immediate risk appears for a short-term recovery to unwind the sharp sell-off. Resistance is at 0.8492 Support is at 0.8285.

EURJPY BULLISH
Important resistance range is at 132.74 and 133.80. A close above which would extend the strength. Support is at 129.29.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action

Source: UBS FX Strategy

[Abo Abdullah]

Deutsche Bank Spot Desk Report

Spot Trading Morning Report

EUR (Michael Ford)

Open 1.3175 Support 1.3140 (100 DMA) 1.3100 Resistance 1.3188 (55 DMA) 1.3250
NFP a bit weaker than expected and puts September taper less definate. Macros are quick to buy after the number but very little follow through on the topside. Orderbook suggests some small pain above the figure but interest still remains light.
Ovreall Euro still in a rnage and tough to get too excited until we get the taper decision or a clean break below 1.30. Prefered play is to sell rallies.
Small short here looking ot add on a bounce to 1.3220.

GBP (Michael Waugh Bacchus)

Open 1.5648 Support 1.5575 (21 dma) Resistance 1.5687 (100 wma)
Cbl holds in well on Friday aided by an underwhelming payroll report. We are approaching various resistances between 1.5660 and 1.5720 but it feels that pounds are in demand and retracements shallow.
I am still short the cross with an ultimate target of low 0.82's.
The orderbook has stress below 0.8380 but that seems a long way off on a low vol Monday, good luck. .

CHF (Christoph Milewski)

Open 1.2363/65 Support 1.2330/1.2290 Resistance 1.2400/1.2430
Open 0.9382/84 Support 0.9350/0.9320 Resistance 0.9410/0.9450
USDCHF had one more hurdle last week before it could really gain traction to the topside. And that was NFP which didn't deliver
Swiss CPI readings came out last week showing once again no signs of inflation in the Swiss economy
I am using CHF as a funder vs AUD and NZD not thinking that the US data is weak enough to use the USD as a funder outright
I am also long EURCHF given a positive risk environment it should hold in and would only really look to cut if the Syrian crisis blows up a situation that is fast appearing as more of a Cuban missile crisis than anything of late

AUD (Cameron McKay)

Open 0.9200 Support .9140 .9070 Resistance 0.9220 9300

Bit surprised AUD is not pressing higher, after election outcome and good tone out of Asia overnight, with China data better and Tokyo successful Olympic bid adds some Nikkei support.
I am long AUD up here expect, risk should remain firm at the start of the week, as EM stabilizes and market digest Taper lite? Disappointing that NFP leaves me in low conviction zone however. Maybe it washes into pain trading … which would be EM strength, USDJPY drift lower. Will reconsider back through .9140 downside, and looking for press towards .9280-93

Labor Force Thursday should be most interesting domestic data this week. .

NZD (Cameron McKay)

Open 0.8000 Support 0.7920 Resistance 8150
AUDNZD fails last week, and now we head into RBNZ, and not sure it will recover. I don’t expect too much out of RBNZ. But the statement will be interesting to see how the LVR changes impact their growth forecasts.
Suspect towards .8100/50 NZD should tire, but through 8200 and the base will look firmly in place.
I am square NZD, don’t want to chase it up here but suspect dips will remain shallow.

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse FX Daily

Global Strategy Technical Analysis

Today’s highlights:

EURUSD is holding 50% retracement support at 1.3103. We look for
the “neckline” to the top at 1.3220/30 to ideally cap further strength though, for an eventual decline to 1.3021.

USDJPY has held trendline support at 98.56/54 to leave the broader
risks still higher.

USDCHF has initially been capped beneath 9449/57, but we expect
.9291/88 to maintain a base for .9520/35 next, then .9647.

EURGBP spotlight stays on key support at .8410/8398. Beneath
would confirm a major top for .8285 initially, and eventually .8165/55.

GBPUSD immediate risks are still for a test of the range highs at
1.5705/52, where we look for a fresh topping effort.

AUDUSD focus stays on the range highs at .9234/73, which we look to try and cap.

Today’s trades/positions:

EURUSD: Short. Add at 1.3228/38, stop above 1.3259, for 1.3025.

USDJPY: Long from 98.00, stop below 97.85. Take profit at 103.10.

GBPUSD: Sell strength to 1.5700/20, stop above 1.5755, for 1.5505.

USDCHF: Long. Add at .9395, stop below .9340, for .9625.

AUDUSD: Flat. Sell strength to .9230/50, stop above .9280, for .8980.

NZDUSD: Sell at .8083, stop above .8188 for .7725.

EURJPY: Long at 130.30, stop beneath 129.29, for 133.80.

EURGBP: Short, add at .8465/75, stop above .8495, for .8170.

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse FX Daily

[Abo Abdullah]

HSBC Order Heatmap

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EU recovery to TEST 1.3223/28

1023 GMT [Dow Jones] Friday's bounce in EUR/USD from a seven-week low at 1.3104 is likely to prompt further gains to test Thursday's bearish outside day high at 1.3223. This 1.3223 high has single print resistance at 1.3228 on last week's Market Profile chart to provide significant backup, and bulls need to clamber over this 1.3223/28 hurdle in order to lift the tone and create additional upside risk to 1.3301. Monday's current session low at 1.3157 and support at 1.3129 would have to be broken in order to expose the 1.31 support area again. EUR/USD is at 1.3189. Market Profile is an intraday charting technique, seeking to evaluate market value as it develops during the day. The technique displays price on a vertical axis, and time/activity on a horizontal axis, creating bell curves that show normal and variable distributions in financial markets. -By Francis Bray, Dow Jones Chief Technical Analyst For Europe

EU Brief - London

LONDON 10.22GMT Another day, another very familiar EUR/USD range, close to the centre of this year’s extremes. Exporters sold EUR/JPY and hedge funds were also paring longs taken in the Tokyo session. UK importers put a bid under EUR/GBP. Euro offered again versus commodity currencies, all, it is said, still fuelled by long liquidation. Some stops hit above Asia’s highs in EUR/USD and some model fund buying (fresh longs). Notably specs are disappointed that the jobs data did not spur a frenzy of trade on the certainty of tapering, but a bigger EUR/USD move has been barred by the fact that specs were flat/long into the event. ? jeremy.boulton at thomsonreuters com

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - AUD/USD nears the 0.9228 August high

Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank notes that AUD/USD has found support at the 55 day ma at .9114.

“The near term risk has increased for further gains to the 0.9233/58 mid-August high and the 23.6% retracement. Key resistance remains at 0.9388/.9404 (2011 low and 2009 high) and we look for this to continue to cap the topside.”

“Intraday dips will find initial support at 0.9075/40 but near term upside pressure is maintained above 0.9000. This guards the 0.8848 recent low. We remain bearish longer term and longer term targets remain to be seen at 0.8550, the 50% retracement of the move up from 2008. Our longer term downside target measured from the top is 0.7700.

[Abo Abdullah]

Leveraged accounts reported as buying EURUSD and GBPUSD to run into some buy stops and the 1.5700 barrier in GBPUSD