== $ == Banks Orders Book == $ ==

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

GBP/USD - Real money, corporate, leveraged and model accounts all aiming long with their sights set on pushing above 1.5750

A macro name is a large buyer of USD/JPY, but that buying was met with good selling interest

GBP/USD barrier at 1.5700 continues to be fought for with Asian accounts providing the selling resistance; large stops above the big figure are in trouble if that level cracks

[Abo Abdullah]

Real money keeps buying pressure up in GBP/USD, working through the defensive selling in front of 1.5700

[Abo Abdullah]

Two big German corporates noted sellers of EUR/USD in early European trade but real money funds seen buying dips.

Large bid noted at .9005 in AUD/USD and stops in good size below .8995.

USD/JPY; solid demand noted throughout session and dealers report stops at very regular intervals above the market (may go to market rather than waiting for FOMC minutes)

[Abo Abdullah]

Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%):

EURUSD: 1.3470-1.3485 on the upside, 1.3280-1.3295 on the downside.

AUDUSD: 0.9145-0.9160 on the upside, 0.8950-0.8965 on the downside.

USDJPY: 97.85-98.00 on the upside, 96.70-96.85 on the downside.

GBPUSD: 1.5695-1.5710 on the upside, 1.5580-1.5595 on the downside.

USDCAD: 1.0465-1.0480 on the upside, 1.0325-1.0340 on the downside.

NZDUSD: 0.8045-0.8060 on the upside, 0.7855- 0.7870 on the downside.

EURJPY: 131.30-131.45 on the upside, 129.35-129.50 on the downside.

EURGBP: 0.8600-0.8615 on the upside, 0.8470-0.8485 on the downside.

USDCHF: 0.9290-0.9305 on the upside, 0.9100-0.9115 on the downside.

AUDJPY: 88.75-88.90 on the upside, 87.05-87.20 on the downside.

EURAUD: 1.4930-1.4945 on the upside, 1.4680-1.4695 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

[Abo Abdullah]

Reuters - Breaking News: Egypt court orders release of ex-president Mubarak: security source

[Abo Abdullah]

Small USD/CAD options in play but technicals a bigger driver

Falling oil prices and turmoil in emerging markets are weighing on the Canadian dollar. The US dollar is higher against CAD for the fourth straight day. The pair touched a six-week high of 1.0448 in European trading as it breaks out of a wedge pattern.

At the top of the hour, options with strikes at 1.0450 and 1.0460 expire. Together, the value of the two options only add up to about $100 million so they’re probably not large enough to move the market but it’s quiet so you never know. Bigger options are in EUR/CAD but they are priced well-below spot, however the pair is struggling ahead of 1.40, topping out at 1.3997. There are also some AUD/CAD options rolling off at 0.9500 and higher

There are larger USD/CAD expiries on Friday at 1.0285, 1.0310 and 1.0460

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank - EUR/JPY cloud support

Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank said EUR/JPY’s drop on Tuesday retested cloud support at 129.38.

“EUR/JPY’s drop on Tuesday retested cloud support at from where it has since then swiftly bounced back, though”.

“The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 130.92 is thus back in play. Above it sits the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 131.72. This may be reached in the days to come but we do not expect to see the current August high at 131.97 being bettered on a New York daily closing basis.

"In case of a, for now, unexpected fall through Tuesday’s 129.28 low being seen, the current 127.97 August low will be eyed and, if slipped through, should see follow through losses to 126.57, the June 26 low”.

"This is regarded as the last defence for the 124.94 June low which is our downside target for the weeks to come”.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

USD becoming bid across the board by both real money and leveraged accounts

[Abo Abdullah]

Credit Suisse - Holds EUR/USD Long & limit Orders To Sell USD/JPY & Cable

Credit Suisse maintains a long EUR/USD position from Tuesday with a stop below 1.3311, and a target at 1.3505.

CS also has an active limit order to sell USD/JPY at 98.35, with a stop above 98.65 and a target at 95.50. If filled, CS would add to this short below 96.85.

"USDJPY remains capped beneath the 55-day average at 99.24, which leaves it retreating to test support at 96.90/89 – the “neckline” to the recent small base and 61.8% retracement of the recent rally. A break here would expose the recent lows at 95.93/80, with more solid levels found at the bottom end of the range at 95.45/94.97," CS outlines its bias on the pair.

Finally, CS has another limit order to sell cable at 1.5740/50, with a stop above 1.5790, and a target at 1.5575/50.

"GBPUSD has ground its way up to a new recovery high off the July low, and a push above the 1.5678 level. This leaves the immediate risks higher to test a cluster of resistance levels at 1.5741/82 – trend channel, the 61.8% retracement of the January/July decline and the June high. We would look for a fresh attempt to top here," CS outlines its bias on the pair.

[Abo Abdullah]

Oil falls through $104 as emerging market struggles continue

There were some musings about violence in Libya underpinning oil earlier in the day but worsening risk appetite and negative momentum in oil prices are weighing on crude. Libya also reiterated that it’s preparing to re-open tow oil ports

[Abo Abdullah]

Commerzbank Tightens Stop On USD/JPY Short, Holds Limit Orders To Sell EUR/USD & Buy Cable

Commerzbank tightened the stops on its short USD/JPY position from Tuesday to 98.15 keeping the target unchanged at 94.80.

"On Tuesday USD/JPY retested the 97.00 region which offered support. Failure at Tuesday’s 96.91 low will push the three month support line at 96.27 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June-to-July rise at 95.42 to the fore. Below these lies the five month support line at 94.86. Over the coming weeks we allow for losses back to the 94.13/93.75 support area. This is where the 200 day moving average and the June low are," CB outlines its bias on the pair.

CB also maintains an active limit order to sell EUR/USD at 1.3480 with a stop at 1.3580 and target at 1.2800.

"EUR/USD continues to advance and has so far risen above the 1.3419 June peak to 1.3453 on Tuesday. A rise above this level would suggest ongoing strength to 1.3500/20, the minor psychological level and 13th February high. This is regarded as the last defence for the 1.3711 February high. We do not favour such a strong rise, though, and believe that the currency pair will falter around the 1.3500 mark," CB oulines its bias on the pair.

Finally, CB maintains another active limit order to buy GBP/USD at 1.5580 with a stop at 1.5490 and target at 1.5800.

"GBP/USD is still expected to hit the uptrend channel resistance line at 1.5739, a rise above which will put the June peak at 1.5752 on the map. Just above it meanders the 200 week moving average at 1.5752 which is to act as resistance. GBP/USD will remain overall bid while trading above last week’s 1.5424 low," CB outlines its bias on the pair.

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR/USD

[Abo Abdullah]

EUR Briefing - New York

[New York, Aug 21 19:47 GMT] The Euro weakened a tad from early Asian levels, moving from near 1.3417 to 1.3390 as the NY session began. The main event, the FOMC minutes release dominated the market and despite Existing US home sales rising to 3 yr highs, the euro barely budged trading in a 1.3370/85 range for most of the early NY session. With the release of the FOMC minutes, the USD went bid. The Euro moved back near 10-DMA support by 1.3334 before rebounding to pre-FOMC levels near 1.3365, as the session ends. The FOMC minutes [ID:nW1N0EI00L] are consistent with a September taper, though some members were concerned higher rates may derail growth. Some Fed participants were willing to lower the 6.5% unemployment threshold if easier policy is needed. While taper seems very much in play, The NFP release in September will be scrutinized as to the degree/amount of taper. The market had been expecting a 15-20bn reduction in the APP, depending on the degree of the Fed's temerity, that expectation may be reined in if equity/bond markets are volatile or data weakens. Paul.Spirgel at ThomsonReuters com